WASHINGTON, 8 January 2008 — US President George W. Bush, who once had grand ambitions to transform the Middle East through democratic reform, begins his first extended presidential visit to the region today.

From the Israeli prime minister’s house in Jerusalem to the palace of Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah, Bush can expect a polite welcome during the eight-day trip.

In Israel, more than 10,500 policemen and security personnel — more than one-third of its entire police force — will be deployed to protect Bush and keep order during the visit. This is due, in part, to a member of Al-Qaeda who urged fighters to meet Bush “with bombs” when he visits the Middle East.

But with the US presidential campaign under way, Middle East governments already appear to be looking past Bush to his successor and are not expecting any major breakthroughs.

As his first state visit to all Arab countries on his itinerary (except Egypt), American political observers hope this belated trip to such a strategically vital region means Bush now recognizes the mistake he made in waiting so long.

Many people’s view of Bush was summed up inadvertently by a diplomat from a major Arab state, who indicated disbelief that Bush plans to use the trip to renew his drive for Middle East democracy.

“Is that still on?” the Arab official said — anonymously.

Bush kicks off his trip with his first visit to Israel since taking office in 2001. He will also revisit Egypt and, for the first time ever, visit Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, where, he said, he would consult “our partners in the war against extremists.”

Reports say another key focus of Bush’s trip will be Iran, long accused by the US administration of trying to develop nuclear weapons but which — according to a recent US intelligence report — halted such programs in 2003.

There is also speculation that Bush could make an unannounced visit to Iraq, where the 2003 US and UK invasion resulted in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, more than 3,900 US troops and 174 British soldiers.

Some observers believe the situation in Iraq has improved in recent months, partly as a result of the “surge” of US troops into the country’s capital.

The visit follows a pledge made at the Annapolis conference in November that he would personally assist negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians. Bush will spend three days in Israel and travel to the West Bank to try to maintain the momentum initiated by the Annapolis conference in which more than 50 countries participated.

Long criticized for a Middle East policy that has blindly backed Israel, many observers believed the conference was the most important US effort to try to make progress since President Bill Clinton left office. Yet analysts say Bush will arrive in the region with too little to promise — and too late in the game — to offer any real hope of securing a lasting peace. Bush would like to leave the Middle East with some real prospect for the “two-state solution” he articulated early in his presidency, becoming the first American president to endorse a permanent Palestinian state.