WASHINGTON, 14 January 2004 — As 2004 primary balloting begins, Howard Dean, 55, has a strong lead. The first primary vote will take place on Jan. 19 in Iowa, followed by New Hampshire on Jan. 27, then a number of southern states on Feb. 3. It is quite possible that those first three dates will decide the outcome of the rest — in which case the long slog will be over before further damage occurs to whoever turns out to be the Democratic front-runner.

One of Dean’s last hurdles before actual balloting begins was the Des Moines Register debate on Jan. 3. After two hours with at least three of the major candidates doing their best to unsettle him, Dean came through virtually unscathed.

Three of his Democratic rivals, Rep. Richard Gephardt (MO), Sen. John Kerry (MA) and Sen. Joseph Lieberman (CT), made desperate attempts to nettle Dean in the hope that he would lose his temper. Their efforts, however, were in vain. Lieberman, in fact, showed such ill will that he lost whatever credibility he had.

It is not really clear why Lieberman, who was the unsuccessful vice presidential candidate in 2000, is still in the race. Although he declined to run in the Iowa caucus, he nevertheless made his way to the debate through near blizzard conditions.

Another candidate who declined to participate in the Iowa caucus, Gen. Wesley Clark, did not take part in the debate. Clark, however, whose poll numbers have increased measurably in the last two weeks, feels that he may make a fair showing in the Iowa caucus and that he still has a chance against Dean. It is also quite possible that, even in the face of a strong Dean win in Iowa, Clark may yet be Dean’s vice presidential choice because of his military experience, which Dean himself lacks.

Gephardt believes his best chance is in Iowa, based on his strong labor union support and his arguments against US participation in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Massachusetts-bred Kerry’s best hope is in neighboring New Hampshire, where he could benefit from favored-son status - except that Vermonter Dean will be granted the same benefits.

The only strong-running candidate who did not seem to be gunning for Dean in the Iowa debate was Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina.

There are three candidates who already have been written off, except by themselves: former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun (IL), Rep. Dennis Kucinich (OH) and Rev. Al Sharpton, who did not participate in the Iowa debate.

Of the contenders still in the running, each seemed to have his own personal strategy. Gephardt still hopes for a miracle based on the possibility that Dean will put his foot in his mouth once too often. Kerry is probably hoping for the same opportunity. And Clark, although he has been pressed into stating that he would not consider becoming a vice presidential running mate, would find it very easy to renege if it becomes clear that Dean wants him as his vice president. In fact, Gephardt also might be considered a strong vice presidential candidate, as well as Edwards and Clark, because the three are from the South, where President George W. Bush expects to run very strongly.

With the odds seemingly running so smoothly for Dean, he now is trying to reposition himself into a more middle-of-the road candidacy. Dean also is discussing more of his personal life than he has heretofore. Apparently for the time being, at least, he has decided to keep his wife, who is Jewish and a medical doctor, largely in the background. Mrs. Dean is raising the Dean children as Jews. The family appears to be basically secular, as compared to Sen. Lieberman, who seems determined to talk constantly about his Orthodox Jewish beliefs.

In a Jan. 6 National Public Radio debate, Dean said his wife would become more active later in the campaign, noting that she has a full load of patients and parental duties with their son in high school and daughter in college. Until recently, Dean has managed to attend all of his 17-year-old son’s hockey games in Burlington, VT, but with primary elections becoming more heated, he said, he has missed one game.

Dean is now speaking about his faith, which he seems to feel he must do in the South. A mainstream Protestant, he was raised an Episcopalian by his Episcopalian father and his mother, Andree Maitland Dean, who was raised a Catholic. He had three younger brothers, Charlie, Jim and Bill. As a young man Dean joined the Episcopal Church. More recently, however, he became a Congregationalist, largely because of a local dispute with the Episcopalians over a bike path.

He and Judith Steinberg met as students at Albert Einstein College of Medicine in New York, where he was an A student. When they decided to marry, his parents were immediately accepting. According to Dean, his mother said “she really liked his prospective wife and thought she would settle him down.”

Although Dean recently said that he prays daily, there is little evidence that he spends much time in church.

Dean gave up drinking when he was very young, while President George W. Bush gave it up at the age of 40. While both have similar patrician backgrounds, one strong difference between the two is that Dean has traveled widely. After finishing high school he went to a school in England, where he asked to have roommates of other races. One was the son of an African emir in Nigeria, and another roommate was an African American from South Carolina.

Dean traveled with classmates to North Africa, France, Turkey and Russia, and recalls that he spent one night sleeping on the floor in the Gare du Nord in Paris.

He shared his predilection for travel with his brother Charlie, who disappeared on a trip to Laos in 1974.

Those circumstances remained unresolved until very recently, when Charlie’s body was found. Some believed he had been a member of the CIA, although there is no evidence of that at all.

That would explain, however, Dean’s cryptic reference in one interview, in which he left the impression that his brother somehow was associated with the US government. Dean has not referred to Charlie’s death in recent weeks.

Dean has been very fortunate to have had former presidential candidate Al Gore come into his corner at exactly the time he was needed to help anoint him as the most likely Democratic nominee.

A subsequent endorsement soon followed from former Sen. Bill Bradley, who was for a time a serious contender in the 2000 election. Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin endorsed Dean on Jan. 9.

Clearly Gore, Bradley, and Harkin concluded that Dean was more electable in 2004 than any of the other candidates, and both probably realized that such an early endorsement would help Dean immeasurably. Another point that cannot be stressed enough is that Dean worked long and hard for key endorsements. There is no doubt that Dean thinks far ahead of most other candidates.

In late 2002 and early 2003, Dean went personally with his first paid staffer, Kate O’Connor, to line up state delegates in Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Iowa, and in city council chambers in New York City, San Francisco and Washington. He then hired as his campaign manager Joe Trippi, who is smart and intuitive.

Dean seems to work extraordinarily well with paid staff and volunteers without any visible temperament problems. This is not true of some of the other campaigns, such as that of John Kerry.

Dean probably has a strong enough lead over the other candidates to carry him through until the rest eventually drop out. It is therefore possible that Dean will have swept the field much earlier than in some previous election years. This would be significant because President Bush seems to have a very strong lead and yet-untapped fund-raising potential.

Howard Dean knows he will need all the help he can get if Bush is to be held to a one-term presidency.

— Richard H. Curtiss is Executive Editor of the Washington Report on Middle East Affairs.