WASHINGTON, 20 January 2006 — The CIA confirmed yesterday afternoon that a taped message aired on Al-Jazeera television was indeed from Al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden.

The tape warned Americans that plans for terror attacks in the United States are under way, and offered a “long-term truce” linked to the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq and Afghanistan. Bin Laden was last heard from in a Dec. 27, 2004, audiotape in which he appointed Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi as Al-Qaeda’s leader in Iraq.

In the tape, Bin Laden said the reason there had not been an attack in the US since Sept. 11, 2001 was not because of superior US security, but because the group had been engaged in activities in Iraq and because operations in the US “need preparations”.

“The operations are happening in Baghdad and you will see them here at home the minute they are through (with preparations), with God’s permission,” he said.

Despite the warning of renewed attacks he also offered the US the chance of a long-term truce in light of the fact that US public opinion polls show growing opposition to the war in Iraq. “We have no objection to responding to this with a long-term truce based on fair conditions,” Bin Laden said.

“We do not mind offering you a truce that is fair and long-term...so we can build Iraq and Afghanistan...there is no shame in this solution because it prevents wasting of billions of dollars,” he said. “Your president is misinterpreting public opinion polls which show that the vast majority of you support the withdrawal of your forces from Iraq.”

His alleged appeal was dismissed by experts in Washington.

“My immediate reaction is that this is just another ploy by Bin Laden to play on the American political scene,” said Shireen Hunter, adjunct professor at the Center for Christian-Muslim Understanding at Georgetown University.

“I think he’s trying to affect American public opinion because he’s sensed people here are getting tired of war in Iraq, and if this is what he is thinking he has forgotten past lessons — for what usually happens here is that in response to Bin Laden, Americans rally around the US government.”

Bin Laden made Europe a similar truce offer following the Madrid train bombings of March 2004.

“The thing about the alleged truce is that the more Bin Laden continues to focus on Iraq, the more he plays into the administration claim that Iraq is the principal battleground in the war against terror,” said Wayne White, former deputy director of the State Department’s Middle East intelligence bureau.

“The administration has repeatedly used this to justify the invasion, after previous claims did not pan out.”

White said the link in the war against terror in Iraq was caused by the US invasion of Iraq in 2003. “Before Bin Laden kept Al-Qaeda at arms length, but when Iraq fell largely out of control in 2003, then Al-Qaeda started pouring into the country in order to get a shot at an American.”

Amr Hamzawy, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace agreed with White and Hunter, listened to the tape in Arabic and added that the underlying message was really meant for the Arab and Muslim world.

“The message seems to be addressing America, but he’s primarily addressing Muslims and Arabs. If you read between the lines, this reasoning of Al-Qaeda’s struggle against the US is that he is using Iraq and Afghanistan as a showdown against the Bush Administration to establish his own credibility. He’s saying Al-Qaeda is the only true fighter for Islam. So this is also a power struggle by Al-Qaeda against other extremist and even moderate Islamic organizations.

“What I found quite interesting in Bin Laden’s message, and this is clearly against the administration, is that he’s saying that their capacity to continue the struggle is the same as it was before, and he’s saying Al-Qaeda can move beyond Afghanistan and Iraq. He’s also addressing Department of Defense and State Department’s statements that Al-Qaeda can no longer operate as it did in the past few years.

Hamzawy shrugged off the alleged threats to the US. “This is a normal component of these types of messages, and it’s nothing new.“

This tape’s message is that “we are still struggling for true Islam for all Arabs and Muslims, and can still operate and function as we used to do. America has not diminished our capacities, and lastly we are a key global player so the West better accept our existence rather than continue to attack poor villages in Afghanistan and Iraq.”

In Islamabad, highly placed sources of the Crisis Management Cell of Pakistan’s Interior Ministry broke the silence yesterday when they confirmed deaths of an Egyptian Midhat Mursi Al-Sayed Umar, Abu Khabab Al-Masri, an explosive expert and son-in-law of Dr. Ayman Al-Zawahiri and Abdul Rehman Al-Misri during the missile strike on Bajour Agency’s village of Damadhola on Friday last.

Authorities in Pakistan have reportedly exchanged information on the three killed Al-Qaeda operatives.

Midhat Mursi had a bounty of $5 million on his head from the US administration.

Crisis Management Cell sources said information about the fourth dead man is being sought from the US.

“Most good analysts know that Iraq is not the central front on the war against terror and a lot of good people and money are being used up,” said White. “The Iraqi operations diverted much needed resources from the stabilization of Afghanistan, which was central to the whole issue, and we’re now seeing resurgence in violence there.”

— With input from Azhar Masood