The debate is not new. It is raging ever since this civilization got addicted to the black gold. It continues to this date, and the reason is simple. Being a finite source, ultimately it has to end. The question is when and not if. Many times in the past too, there have been talks that the world is running out of crude. Yet those turned out to be false calls.

In 1874, Pennsylvania’s state geologist fretted US has four years supply left. In 1914, Washington claimed only 10 years of supplies were left. In 1940, the US announced its reserves would be depleted in 15 years. In 1977, the then US President Jimmy Cater said not enough oil was available for imports in the coming decades.

But as is said, ‘oil is found in the minds of men,’ despite the calls, the global estimated oil reserves continued to grow from 60 billion barrels in 1920, to 600 billion barrels in 1950, 2,000 billion barrels by 1990 and to 3,000 billion barrels by 2000. Indeed Daniel Yergin has been right when he said, “History of oil is one of astonishing innovations.”

Technology has been at work all these years. Drilling rather than digging in Pennsylvania prompted the first oil boom in 1859. The introduction of rotating drilling bits in 1901 in Texas heralded the birth of the modern oil industry. Technology is at work even today. Despite not finding any super giant well in the real sense since 1971, while over 800 billion barrels were consumed over the last 35 years, some 1,500 billion barrels were added to the global reserves in the meantime.

A variety of new technologies prove so. The introduction of multiple lateral wells and microscopic robots swimming through rock pores deep underground would result in Saudi Arabia recovering 70 percent from its giant fields compared to the current 50 percent, Aramco says. And if one goes and have a look at the new state-of-the-art Khurais plant, one has to take the assertion on its face value. The new technology would add another 80 billion barrels to Saudi reserves, it is being claimed. Besides, Saudi Arabia has been insisting it could add another 200 billion barrels to its reserve estimates.

The next door Iraq is severely underdeveloped, as far its oil fields are concerned. And once overall security in Iraq improves, every one agrees, Iraq could definitely boost its production many times its current output.

And the list of new possibilities, the new frontiers, are definitely not in short supply. A recent report from the US Geological Survey (USGS) confirmed last week that the Arctic contains just over a fifth of the world’s undiscovered, recoverable oil and natural gas resources.

The Survey report concluded that the area north of the Arctic Circle has an estimated 90 billion barrels of crude oil and 1,670 trillion cubic feet of natural gas — more than the proven oil and gas reserves of Russia, the world’s no. 2 crude producer after Saudi Arabia. Exploration in the area north of the Arctic Circle has already unearthed more than 400 oil and gas fields. They account for about 40 billion barrels of oil and more than 1,100 trillion cubic feet of gas, the USGS said. That is about 10 percent of the world’s conventional petroleum resources, a figure that includes already produced oil and remaining reserves in the ground.

There are other exciting prospects too. The Orinoco belt of Venezuela is one to be marked. State energy giant, Petroles de Venezuela S.A estimates that the Orinoco Belt has 236 billion barrels of extra heavy crude. Some projections go as far as 300 billion barrels. Compared to Venezuela’s current exploitable reserves of 80 billion barrels, this is huge.

And then if and when drilling is allowed in the Wild Life Refuge in Alaska, the US government’s Energy Information Agency (DOI) says it might eventually yield nearly 800,000 barrels of crude oil a day. In 1980, the US Geological Survey estimated the Coastal Plain could contain up to 17 billion barrels of oil and 34 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. In 1987 DOI estimated that “in-place resources” range from 4.8 billion to 29.4 billion barrels of oil. According to the US Energy Administration, the mean estimate of technically recoverable oil in ANWR is 10.4 billion barrels.

Brazil is now being tipped as another interesting prospect. It has recently reported some major finds. Petroleo Brasileiro SA’s offshore Carioca prospect may hold 33 billion barrels of oil.

Brazil holds an estimated 12 billion barrels of crude reserves. If the 33 billion barrel estimate for Carioca is confirmed by additional drilling, Brazil’s reserves would surpass those of Libya.

Carioca remained hidden from explorers until recently because energy companies lacked the technology to assess prospects obscured by undersea salt formations.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva says Brazil will at least triple its oil reserves by exploring a new offshore area that includes the Western Hemisphere’s largest discovery since 1976.

A tripling of proved reserves from 12.6 billion barrels would move Brazil into the world’s top 10 nations in oil supplies, according to BP overtaking Nigeria, currently No. 10 with 36.2 billion barrels, and put it close to Kazakhstan which has 39.8 billion barrels.

The state-controlled Brazilian oil company Petrobras, said last November that its Tupi field may hold eight billion barrels of recoverable oil equivalent, the biggest discovery in decades.

Indeed the overall prospects are not that bleak as they are being painted. The world is definitely not running out of oil, rest assured. Taking clue form Hubert principle, pundits seem to be getting panicky. But the end is not in sight — yet.

New crude frontiers are definitely on the horizon, yet those are not that convenient to drill, one has to concede and its costing would be at a much different plane. Additional Ghawars, with crude ready to almost bubble out of it, are not on the radar, yet.

The only certainty at this point is that the era of cheap oil is over — and forever.