The arrival today of Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Iraq for a visit at the invitation of Premier Nuri Al-Maliki is being widely publicized, in stark contrast to the secrecy surrounding the arrival of President Bush and senior administration members whenever they descend on the country to view their handiwork.

Washington is huffing and puffing about the Iranian leader’s trip but this should not be taken at face value. Ahmadinejad’s presence in Iraq could not have happened without US agreement, if for no better reason than the Americans will — discreetly — be largely responsible for the Iranian president’s security. Therefore it has to be assumed Washington may actually welcome Ahmadinejad’s arrival. But why?

Bush clearly never intended that Iran — part of the “Axis of Evil” — would be the main beneficiary of his invasion. But after the tens of thousands of Iraqi and American lives and the hundreds of billions of dollars that the invasion and occupation have cost, that is the reality. It is why there have been quiet US-Iranian contacts over the last 18 months and why the Shiite militias have been reined in. With the Sunni communities no longer under attack from Shiites, it was possible for them to turn their attention to the even more insidious threat of Al-Qaeda terrorists. It was the action by Sunnis against these fanatics that has enabled the US surge to make the headway it has.

Ahmadinejad is bringing with him a $1 billion aid package to help Iraq rebuild. If as seems likely, Al-Maliki accepts it, Iranian firms will end up with lucrative reconstruction contracts which US companies like Vice President Cheney’s old firm Halliburton, once dreamt of winning. But if wiser heads really are now prevailing in Washington, then this Iranian aid is symptomatic of that country’s willingness to play a constructive role in the region.

But if the Americans have changed their attitude to Iran over Iraq, there is a second hard-line policy toward Iran’s nuclear program that has not apparently changed. With Russia now belatedly signaling its growing concern over Iran’s uranium enrichment activities and demanding they stop, the pressure would seem to be mounting on Tehran. Yet is it really possible for Washington to be quietly shaking Ahmadinejad’s hand with one arm while the other waves a big stick over his nuclear program? There surely has to be a point where the two policies meet.

It should not be forgotten that the US intelligence community has clearly contradicted Bush claims that the Iranians are still trying to develop a nuclear arsenal. Could it be that the Iranians are about to comply with the demands of the International Atomic Energy Agency and give full access to the nuclear program which they insist is peaceful? Were that the case, Washington could claim a double victory, on Iran’s nuclear program and its involvement in Iraq, when in reality, the real success would be the speeding of its escape from Iraq.