NOW if you happened to be a short puny individual would you deliberately pick a fistfight with your 6ft-tall ruthless weapon-toting neighbor known for packing a punch? Didn’t think so! That’s why it’s so difficult to understand the motives of Mikhail Saakashvili, the pro-Western president of Georgia when he decided to take on Russia. Did he honestly believe he had a chance of coming out of the conflict on top, and, if so, why?

With war raging between Georgia and Russia, which is threatening to involve Ukraine and even Kazakhstan, if Saakashvili was gambling that Moscow would turn a blind eye to his military assault on South Ossetia, he must realize by now that his gamble that hasn’t paid off. In a worst-case scenario, it’s akin to a first-time punter losing his home in a game of poker with a Las Vegas card shark.

While it’s true that Saakashvili has a reputation for being a hothead at times, he isn’t generally thought of as stupid. It’s, therefore, hard to believe he concocted this scenario that played right into the Russian government’s hands all on his own. Going back to our puny guy, if he believed the cavalry would arrive in the nick of time to protect his nose, he might manage to pluck up the courage to throw a brick through his burly neighbor’s window.

The Georgian leader may have been acting unwittingly on the say-so of other countries out to weaken Russia’s international puissance and influence. Alternatively, the military-industrial complex may be in dire need of a new enemy (or even a remodeled old one) to justify its expansion.

AFTER all, the so-called “war on terror” is on the point of fizzling out, while few lose sleep nowadays over the whereabouts of Osama Bin Laden. Now that Iraq has been tamed and try as they might they can’t get anything to stick on Iran, Moscow’s old slot, as enemy par excellence is once again vacant.

In recent years, the specter of a new Cold War has loomed ever larger. The days when George W. Bush looked into Vladimir Putin’s eyes and saw a trustworthy soul are long gone. Nowadays he would see the eyes of a proud nationalist who deeply regrets the break-up of the Soviet Union and who isn’t about to stand idly by while Russia’s interests are attacked. And make no mistake, Putin may not be president any longer and he’s currently in Beijing enjoying the Games, but he is the person leading this charge.

Let’s get real. This war has little to do with tiny South Ossetia and its population of a mere 70,000, most of whom are Russian nationals. The idea that the Georgian government cares a jot about the citizens of this breakaway enclave is laughable. Due to its decisions South Ossetia’s capital Tshkinvali lies in ruins, while over 2,000 civilians have lost their lives.

This conflict was ignited as part of a power-play between the West and Russia, pure and simple, and Georgia, which aspires to NATO membership, was used as a chess piece to test Moscow’s resolve and its own loyalty to its new friends in the West. Ordinary people who may have lost loved ones, limbs or homes and those who are fleeing in terror from the bombs are mere pawns in a bigger game...as usual.

Superficially it may appear that Moscow is the aggressor. Russia is being blasted by the US and NATO for using excessive force and over-reacting and this may well be true if one looks at the Georgian military incursion in isolation.

But the fact is the Russia government is still smarting over US plans to install interceptor missiles in Poland and radar systems in the Czech Republic as well as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline that was orchestrated by Washington to bypass Russia and, thus, reduce its strategic leverage.

If, indeed, Russia has over-reacted, this is because it feels under siege and needs to prove to the West it is still a major player on the world’s stage. In fact, it may have been waiting for a pretext to display its muscle for a long time now to send Western powers the message “Don’t mess with Moscow”.

Saakashvili was nice enough, or rather politically naïve enough, to oblige. He probably didn’t even realize his country was being used as a surrogate in the way that Lebanon and Israel were during the summer of 2006.

Vladimir Vasilyev, chairman of the State Duma Committee for Security, believes President Saakashvili would never have acted without Washington’s encouragement.

“The further the situation unfolds, the more the world will understand that Georgia would never be able to do all this without America,” he said. And, indeed, the US has been arming, equipping and training Georgian forces for many years along with 1,000 Israeli military advisers provided by Israeli security companies.

By now President Saakashvili knows that his new buddies in the West may be good at talking the talk but they are rather more reluctant to walk the walk. The British Foreign Office calls the Russian action “deplorable”. George Bush warns that US-Russian relations may be seriously damaged. Russia is in no mood to care.

The realization that the cavalry isn’t on its way must be sinking in. Europe can’t do without Russian gas. The US is tied up in Iraq and Afghanistan and isn’t about to engage in open conflict with a country that actually does have nuclear missiles able to reach American cities. In the end, President Saakashvili will be the one who will have to explain the devastation to his people and attempt to pick up whatever pieces he can. For a lesson in dirty politics clad in faux friendship, his is a high price to pay.