Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has returned from his Washington meeting with President George W. Bush empty-handed and frustrated. His already shaky peace negotiations with Israel have hit a brick wall and, as more often than not, Washington was siding with his opposite side. Meanwhile, his Hamas rivals in Gaza Strip have failed to find takers of their offer of a lengthy truce with Israel. On the eve of the 60th anniversary of Al-Nakbah and the creation of Israel, Palestinian losses appear to have been compounded on all fronts.

But the peace game continues elsewhere. All eyes are suddenly glued on Syria, whose president revealed that Turkey was mediating to revive abandoned negotiations with Israel. The Israelis confirmed the existence of a Turkish initiative and announced that Washington had not objected to a resumption of talks with Damascus.

But then there was the surprise accusation by the Bush administration that North Korea was helping Syria build a nuclear facility in the eastern desert, which President Bashar Assad said was a nonnuclear military site. The timing of the release of intelligence material on the alleged reactor, nearly seven months after Israel is believed to have destroyed it in an airstrike last September, has baffled Republicans and Democrats in Washington.

Syria’s reaction to Washington’s accusations has been vociferous. Its ambassador to the US has called for a comprehensive IAEA inspection that would begin in Israel and end in Syria. He reminded the world how the US had lied about Iraq’s WMD program and used false evidence to justify its invasion of that country.

The US revelation could be part of a pressure campaign on North Korea, which is being drawn in lengthy and complicated negotiations to dismantle its nuclear program. But its effect on Syria and the recent burst of peace efforts cannot be downplayed.

The Bush administration has followed a cumbersome, often ambiguous, policy on Syria from the start. Damascus has been accused of supporting terrorist organizations, such as Hamas and Hezbollah, and of allowing suicide bombers to infiltrate its borders with Iraq. It was included in President Bush’s axis-of-evil states and later blamed for the assassination of Lebanon’s former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and other anti-Syria politicians.

More recently the Damascus regime was held responsible for derailing attempts to elect a Lebanese president. Syria’s special alliance with Tehran is seen as another proof of its hostile attitude toward Israel, the US and moderate Arab states.

The Syrians have felt the heat of US-imposed diplomatic isolation. But their reaction has always been calculated. They cooperated on the porous Syria-Iraq border issue and were even praised by the US military for their positive response. On Lebanon, Damascus insists that it is against interference in the internal affairs of its western neighbor, but has hinted that any deal must take into account the limitations of the international tribunal on the Hariri’s murder.

And on a peace settlement with Israel, Syria has reiterated its long-standing position on a complete land-for-peace deal that involves withdrawal from the Golan and direct negotiations under US auspices based on an earlier understanding reached in 1995 with Yitzhak Rabin.

The renewed interest in reviving the so-called Syrian peace track underlines a strategic decision inside the Israeli political establishment. Unfortunately it could also mean that Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has decided to put his negotiations with the PNA on the back burner —- indefinitely. The rituals will continue, such as the side meetings and the endless haggling over logistics and others, but an historic deal with the Palestinians is now a low-priority matter.

Unlike the Palestinian side, Syria holds many strong cards such as its support of Hezbollah, its close ties to Tehran and its recent drive to boost its military capabilities, to name a few. As Israel ponders the catastrophic lessons of its 2006 war on Lebanon, it becomes clear that the threat of Hezbollah cannot be contained so long as Syria remains its primary backer.

With the demise of Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, Syria is today the only Arab country that could pose a threat to Israel. Its special alliance with Tehran exacerbates that danger on the long run. Neutralizing the Syrians through a peace treaty will secure Israeli interests even if the price is to give back most of the Golan Heights. But such approach is opposed by right-wing Israeli parties including the Likud. How far can a weak Olmert go with such a deal is questionable. And without direct US involvement, the Syrians would see the peace offering as just another ploy to entrap them.

Damascus is keen on normalizing its relations with Washington, which has spearheaded efforts to isolate it both diplomatically and economically. The Syrians attended the Annapolis meeting last year and renewed their support to the Arab peace initiative in the Damascus summit last month. For them US patronage of any peace negotiations with Israel is an important indicator that they are now off Washington’s hit list.

With talk of war this summer in the region, the Syrians would want to foster their image as peace seekers. On the other hand, they would want to buy time as the Bush administration slips into its final months in office. The Israelis, on the other hand, could use the pretense of a possible resumption of negotiations with Syria to shake off any pressure on them to reach a final settlement with the Palestinians.

America’s Lebanese allies would be disheartened if Israel and Syria get down to business under US sponsorship. With the presidential dilemma unresolved, the future of Lebanon could also be relegated in importance.

And, of course, it could turn out to be a bogus process that leads to nothing. In that case Israel remains in control of both land and initiative. The Syrians will wait for another day, while holding firm to their strong cards, but the Palestinians will be busy counting their mounting losses.

— Osama Al Sharif is a veteran journalist based in Amman.