Shortly after the close of the Palestinian polls, the first of many voices in the US Congress weighed in. “The development of a healthy economy, a functioning and accountable government, and above all, the hope for peace and stability are all at stake for the Palestinian people following today’s election,” said Roy Blunt, Republican of Missouri. Blunt, the Majority Whip of the House, added that Mahmoud Abbas, “must now be prepared to make serious and difficult decisions following the end of the campaign...Little progress has been made in preparing the Palestinian people for concessions that will have to be made to secure peace in the long run. The most important first step, however, is the emergence of a new leadership that the United States and others can view as a partner, rather than an obstacle, in the peace process.”

This is typical of the American interpretation of the Palestinian election. The crux of this is Abbas must meet the expectations of the Israelis and Americans. Little attention has been paid to the Palestinians and their expectations. The US and Israel expect Abbas to make bold moves in the name of peace, including cracking down on paramilitary organizations. Abbas is being hailed in Washington and Tel Aviv as a man of destiny, or as President Bush might say, “a man of peace.”

Hype. For those familiar with professional boxing, the name Gerry Cooney might ring a bell. Before being pummeled in a 1982 championship bout against Larry Holmes, Cooney was billed as a real life version of “Rocky,” the fictional boxing hero portrayed in movies by Sylvester Stallone. Newsweek even put him on the cover of its magazine, alongside Stallone. Boxing aficionados always suspected that Cooney was more fiction than fact. But those who desperately wished to see Cooney win the championship belt focused only on the flattering portions of his resume in justifying a bout with the incumbent champ, Holmes. After suffering a humiliating defeat, the once adoring press turned on Cooney, labeling him a bum.

To be sure, Abbas is no Cooney. But the lesson is applicable. Abbas is being judged on his ability to fulfill American and Israeli expectations. If he fails to meet these, Abbas will quickly be morphed into either a toothless heir to Yasser Arafat or an obstacle to peace.

George W. Bush’s invitation for Abbas to visit Washington may have seemed groundbreaking. But not long ago Yasser Arafat was welcomed at the White House. At that time he was not an obstructionist. But when the peace process soured in September 2000, Arafat’s image took a permanent turn for the worse — at least in the US. For Abbas, Sharon’s decision to cut ties with the PA and the deafening US silence in wake of the attack on the IDF at Karni earlier this week (since revoked) should serve as a warning that a smear campaign could be in the cards should he not meet American and Israeli demands.

In the American interpretation of Abbas, there seems to be three major misperceptions about Abbas and the Palestinian elections:

• Interests: Abbas was elected by the Palestinians to represent Palestinian interests. These include those pertaining to the peace process as well as quality of life issues such as providing sustenance, jobs, health care, and education. The Palestinian public may be more receptive to a comprehensive peace agreement, but they do not support giving up core principles, such as Jerusalem, the 1967 lines, and the right-of-return.

• The Peace Process: Abbas and the PA believe the peace process begins with the road map, not Sharon’s unilateral plan to withdraw from Gaza. Abbas may cooperate with the Israelis on Gaza so long as it moves the process forward, but the focus must be on a comprehensive settlement.

• Security: Abbas must prioritize rebuilding the Palestinian security infrastructure, which is in complete disarray. Only then can he realistically be expected to clamp down on militants.

• Democracy: While democracy may be important, restoring normalcy to the daily life of the Palestinian people is a more pressing demand.

While Abbas cannot politically afford to ignore the expectations of the Israelis and Americans, his biggest challenge is meeting the needs of Palestinians. He should not expect a great deal of understanding from Washington, especially if the rejectionist camp can veto any deal or launch an attack on Israeli targets.

It has been less than a week since Mahmoud Abbas was inaugurated as president of the Palestinian Authority. Already, Abbas’ star has risen and fallen in Israel and Washington.

By issuing orders on Monday to his security forces to make “maximum efforts” to prevent militant strikes against Israelis, Abbas seems to have quieted his critics, albeit temporarily. But the tealeaves show a difficult road for Abbas, especially if he is judged by the expectations of outsiders.

— David Dumke is principal of the Washington-based MidAmr Group.