China economy to overtake US by 2019

Updated 10 January 2013
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China economy to overtake US by 2019

BEIJING: China will overtake the United States economically within six years, an official research institute predicts, and go on to become the world's most important country in three decades more, state media said yesterday.
The findings came from the Nation's Health Report issued by the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the Global Times said, without giving details of the criteria used for the prediction.
China's economy would be larger than that of the US by 2019, it cited the document as saying, and China's "international status" would exceed that of the US by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic.
"National health" was defined as a country's "overall conditions... using resource sufficiency and wealth distribution as the major criteria", the Global Times said, but did not go into specifics.
China ranked as the 11th "healthiest" country out of some 100 nations, it said, just behind Costa Rica, with Sweden in top position.
The official Xinhua news agency said China was given a national health status of "up to standard", though the US, Japan and Britain were deemed "health deficient".
The report could not immediately be independently obtained from the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
China's stunning economic growth rates, increases in military spending and overlapping security interests in the Asia-Pacific region with the US have sparked concerns the countries could find themselves increasingly at odds in coming decades as they jockey for global influence.
But the Global Times, which has close ties to China's ruling Communist Party, said the document's findings were seen by some as overly nationalistic.
"The report is indicative of an anti-US sentiment in Chinese society," Fang Zhouzi, described as a prominent whistleblower on academic fraud, told the paper.
"It casts the US as a potential threat and links the goals of China's national revival to surpassing the US," he added.
Decades of economic reform and openness to foreign investment have propelled China from a poor, overwhelmingly agricultural country to become the world's second-largest economy behind the US.
International analysts widely expect China's economy, given its high growth rates, to overtake the US in terms of gross domestic product, or total size, some time in the first half of this century, though differ on exact timing and criteria.
But they also see the US as likely to remain wealthier on a per capita basis given China's huge population of 1.3 billion, with that of the US currently at about 315 million.


Barclays chief Staley survives whistleblowing inquiry with fines

Updated 19 min 54 sec ago
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Barclays chief Staley survives whistleblowing inquiry with fines

  • Case marks first test of Britain's "senior managers regime"
  • Decision not to dismiss Staley comes as relief for shareholders

Barclays said Jes Staley will be fined by British regulators for attempting to unmask a whistleblower, but will be able to keep his job as the bank’s chief executive.
The country’s banking watchdogs concluded Staley’s attempt to find out who wrote a letter raising “concerns of a personal nature” about an unnamed senior employee represented a breach of individual conduct, Barclays said on Friday.
Staley’s case is the first big test of Britain’s “senior managers regime” (SMR), aimed at making top banking officials personally accountable for their actions after few were punished for their roles in bank collapses during the financial crisis.
If Staley accepts the findings of the regulators, it would be the first time that a sitting chief executive of a major bank in Britain has been fined by its regulators. A bank spokesman said the size of the fine had yet to be determined.
Barclays said the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and the Bank of England’s Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) were “not alleging that he (Staley) acted with a lack of integrity or that he lacks fitness and propriety to continue to perform his role as Group Chief Executive Officer.”
News of the FCA and PRA fines follows a more than year-long probe in Britain that had led to speculation among some investors and bank insiders that Staley could have been forced to step down if deemed unfit to continue by those authorities.
Barclays also said that the FCA and PRA will not take enforcement action against the bank, while authorities in the United States are still investigating the case.
“Staley will live on to fight another day – which we welcome as a positive development for the bank and a relief for shareholders,” John Cronin at Irish broker Goodbody said.
“He’s been delivering on the strategy far more effectively than his predecessor had and therefore absent any sort of genuine malpractice we’re pretty keen for him to crack on,” one of the bank’s top 40 investors said.
The British bank, which in April last year said it had reprimanded Staley and would cut his bonus for his attempts to identify the whistleblower, will be required to report to the FCA and PRA on aspects of their whistleblowing programs.
The watchdogs could have banned Staley and opting for a fine could dent the fledgling SMR’s credibility.
“The magnitude of banning the sitting CEO of such a systemically important institution made outcomes other than a fine unlikely, but the case does set an interesting precedent,” said Nicholas Queree, an associate at law firm Peters & Peters.
Staley received the draft warning notice last week and was given 28 days to accept the findings or appeal. If he agrees to pay the two fines he would get a 30 percent discount.
The fines have been set according to a formula that considers the type of offense, the offender’s position in the company, any financial hardship, any previous cases, and whether there was any monetary benefit from the offense.
“We ... will announce the outcome once this issue has reached a conclusion,” the FCA and PRA said in a statement.
Legal experts question whether a light sanction for Staley could send a signal to other potential bank whistleblowers that they risk unmasking if they speak out.
Barclays said it will recommend Staley’s re-election as a director at its board meeting on May 1. At the last annual meeting he faced resignation calls, but was given a public endorsement from Chairman John McFarlane.
Staley’s pay package was £3.88 million ($5.45 million) in 2017, 8.5 percent less than the previous year.