2015 Budget: Countercyclicality and firepower
2015 Budget: Countercyclicality and firepower
All cylinders have been on fire for some years now.
The question in everyone’s mind is what will the fiscal policy look like after oil prices have plunged by more than 30 percent over the recent months?
The answer is simple: it will keep on spending on the areas that are strategic and essential for sustainable growth, education, health care, infrastructure and mega projects, as well as security and defense.
This brings total capital spending between 2010 and 2014 to SR1.42 trillion, in line with the SR1.44 trillion in the 9th Five-Year Development Plan (a 67 percent increase compared to the 2005-09 Development Plan).
Current expenditures, which have risen over the last years, will receive less of a boost in 2015 given that its size has grown to levels equal to the size of the country’s actual 2004 budget.
The expected deficit for 2015 is very manageable, at 5 percent of GDP, which is 5 percent of the country’s foreign reserves, and even if overspending is carried out, there will be plenty of firepower to support such a policy.
There are enough assets accumulated for Saudi Arabia to run a 5 percent deficit for the next 20 years.
Historically, Saudi Arabia has been managing comfortably deficits in the single digits with some exceptions such as the mid-1980s and the early 1990s.
Revenues are always conservatively calculated and it could be that in 2015 oil income which represented 89 percent of total government income would be higher.
Although oil prices have been exhibiting a lot of volatility, there is plenty of positive news in 2015 that would push oil prices higher.
Oil prices have been exaggerated on the downside and will begin to recover in 2015 and beyond, as Emerging Market economies make a strong comeback, the US and China continue to show solid growth prospects and Europe and Japan recover.
Saudi Arabia’s total reserves are close to the size of its total economy which allow for plenty of firepower deployment in more revenue challenging days.
The nonoil economy in 2014 grew at a spectacular 8.2 percent which is among the highest in emerging markets.
This translates into more jobs for Saudis and great expansion and deepening of the private real economy with low inflation.
For 2015, the economy is expected to grow 3 percent with inflation at 2.6 percent and nonoil growth at 6.7 percent.
Local equities should see a year of growth given the 2015 budget given that consumption and demand will prevail solidly.
At current valuations, there are plenty of companies that look attractive.
The opening up of the market should provide impetus for growth in the first half of 2015.
The 2015 budget is setting the economy on a solid footing that allows it to grow notwithstanding the temporary oil revenue challenges.
John Sfakianakis is GCC director at Ashmore Group.
World Bank shareholders approve $13 billion capital increase
- Capital increase follows three years of negotiations
- Increase of $7.5 billion for main institution and $5.5 billion for IFC
World Bank shareholders approved a “historic” increase in the bank’s lending capacity late on Saturday after the United States backed a reform package that curbs loans and charges more for higher income countries like China.
World Bank President Jim Yong Kim said neither China nor any middle income countries was happy about the prospect of paying more for loans, but they agreed because of the overall increase in funds available.
The agreement, which also increase shares and voting power to large emerging market countries like China, was “a tremendous vote of confidence” in the institution that came after three years of tough negotiations, Kim said.
“World Bank Group bureaucrats don’t often jump around and high-five and hug each other,” Kim told a small group of reporters following the Spring meeting.
He said the increase was needed because even with the end of the global financial crisis, the bank has been called on to provide funding to address a new series of challenges facing poor countries, like climate change, refugees, pandemics, “all new things for us.”
The increase provides an additional $13 billion in “paid in” capital: $7.5 billion to the main institution and $5.5 billion to the bank’s private financing arm, the International Finance Corporation.
Kim said the increase will allow the bank to ramp up lending to an average of $100 billion a year through 2030, from $60 billion in 2017 and an expected $80 billion in 2018.
Countries will have five years to provide the funds, but can ask for a three-year extension. The last increase occurred in 2010 and added $5 billion to the bank’s capital and $200 million for the IFC.
The United States, the institution’s biggest shareholder, rejected the World Bank request in October and the administration of US President Donald Trump has argued that multilateral lending institutions should graduate countries that have grown enough to finance their own development, like China.
But US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Saturday said Washington supports the increase because of the reforms to lending rules.
“I look at this as a package transaction... we support a capital increase on the World Bank, along with the associated reforms that they’re talking about making,” Mnuchin told reporters.
The increase requires legislative approval, but Mnuchin said he was hopeful Congress would back the plan. Kim also said he has had contact with representatives from both parties and received strong support.
In a statement to the World Bank’s governing committee, Mnuchin applauded the plan to “significantly shift lending to poorer clients.”
While he did not mention China by name, Mnuchin applauded the shift to a “new income-based lending allocation target and the re-introduction of differentiated pricing” for loans — meaning wealthier countries would pay higher interest rates.
“The latter will incentivize better-off, more creditworthy borrowers to seek market financing to meet their needs for development,” he said.
Mnuchin said the new arrangement, including for the IFC, “frees resources for countries that don’t have sustainable access to private capital markets.”P
China’s Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao said Beijing supported increasing World Bank resources but had reservations about the agreement for changes in lending policies.
“We are concerned about some of the policy commitments in the capital package, such as those on graduation, maturity premium increase for loans and differentiated loan pricing based on national income per capita,” he said in a statement.
“We hope that the management take different national circumstances into full account in the implementation of the graduation policies... to ensure that these policies will not impede cooperation between the (bank) and upper middle income countries.”
Kim acknowledged that lending to China would decline, but only gradually. That means “whatever borrowing they do has to be as impactful as possible.”
And he noted that because of the capital increase, “we will be able to maintain volumes for middle income countries as a whole.”
Zhu said the capital increase is “a concrete measure to support multilateralism” at a time when “anti-globalization sentiments, unilateralism, protectionism in trade” were creating uncertainties in the global economy.