Global growth jitters rattle world markets

Updated 21 August 2015
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Global growth jitters rattle world markets

PARIS: Global growth jitters have shaken world financial markets with the powerful Chinese economic engine slowing down, the European economy sputtering and the US Federal Reserve unclear about the timing of rate hikes.
The equities sell-offs continued on Friday sending all the Asian markets into steep declines with European and US stocks following in their wake.
"It isn't so much that the world economy is worsening, but that the international context has not improved as hoped," Jean-Louis Mourier, economist at broker Aurel BGC, told AFP.
That global outlook has been dampened not only by China but also by the Russian and some South American economies.
"The recovery in the US and, to a lesser extent, the euro area and Japan will be offset by the ongoing slowdown in China, low or negative growth in Latin America and only a gradual Russian recovery from its recession this year," Marie Diron, senior vice president for credit policy at Moody's, said in a note.
The main concern however weighing on market sentiment is the extent and pace of the economic slowdown in China, which for the last 10 years has been a key driver of global growth.
"Uncertainties over China's slowdown have escalated," banking giant Citi Group said in a note, predicting that growth in the world's second-biggest economy "is likely to remain sluggish."
On Friday a new wave of jitters swept through markets over weak Chinese manufacturing data, with the preliminary reading of Caixin's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) at 47.1 this month — its worst result since March 2009 and significantly below analysts' forecasts.
The International Monetary Fund has forecast China's growth at 6.8 percent this year — compared with 7.4 percent in 2014 — but many analysts have doubts about official Chinese figures.
Nigel Green, CEO of financial consultancy deVere Group, expects the economic concerns to persist at least until the end of the year, when "we will have a clearer view as to the risk of a China economic 'hard landing'."
China's economic woes are also weighing on commodities, where prices have plummeted — hitting the emerging economies hard, especially in Latin America, which depend on exports of minerals.
Brazil, the world's seventh-largest economy, is sinking into recession amid rising inflation and unemployment, a falling currency and a political crisis born of a massive corruption scandal.
Meantime, Europe has yet to take over the lead in growth from slowing emerging economies.
"After an excess of optimism, this is something of a cold shower," said Mourier.
Growth in the euro zone eased slightly from 0.4 percent in the first quarter to 0.3 percent in the second, in large part due to unexpected slowing in France.
Germany improved its quarterly performance, albeit less impressively than anticipated, according to initial estimates published August 14 by Eurostat.
But if recovery hasn't come as quickly in the euro zone as many analysts might have expected, the long-term outlook for the 19-nation bloc remains somewhat encouraging.
Private sector growth in the euro area accelerated in August, according to Markit's closely-watched PMI published Friday, which came in at 54.1 points — up from 53.9 in July — driven mostly by Germany and despite France's stall.
That positive activity may have been aided by other factors.
"The euro is under-valued, and this will help boost the euro zone's recovery," said Green, who also foresees European economies benefiting from depressed oil prices that continued their slide Friday, nearing the key $40 threshold in Asia.
Another source of downward pressure on financial markets is the apparent confusion of analysts struggling to decipher US monetary policy plans.
In the minutes of the last meeting, policy makers at the US Federal Reserve did not provide expected clues into the timing of their decision to raise interest rates -- an absence of clarity that soured investor sentiment.


Oil rises after US Navy destroys Iranian drone

Updated 54 min 45 sec ago
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Oil rises after US Navy destroys Iranian drone

  • The International Energy Agency is revising its 2019 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.1 million barrels per day
  • Speculators have exited options positions that could have provided exposure to higher prices in the next several years

TOKYO: Oil prices rose more than 1 percent on Friday after the US Navy destroyed an Iranian drone in the Strait of Hormuz, a major chokepoint for global crude flows, again raising tensions in the Middle East.
Brent crude futures were up 82 cents, or 1.3 percent, at $62.75 by 0100 GMT. They closed down 2.7 percent on Thursday, falling for a fourth day.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures firmed 61 cents, or 1.1 percent, at 55.91. They fell 2.6 percent in the previous session.
The United States said on Thursday that a US Navy ship had “destroyed” an Iranian drone in the Strait of Hormuz after the aircraft threatened the vessel, but Iran said it had no information about losing a drone.
The move comes after Britain pledged to defend its shipping interests in the region, while US Central Command chief General Kenneth McKenzie said the United States would work “aggressively” to enable free passage after recent attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf.
Still, the longer-term outlook for oil has grown increasingly bearish.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) is reducing its 2019 oil demand forecast due to a slowing global economy amid a US-China trade spat, its executive director said on Thursday.
The IEA is revising its 2019 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) and may cut it again if the global economy and especially China shows further weakness, Fatih Birol said.
“China is experiencing its slowest economic growth in the last three decades, so are some of the advanced economies ... if the global economy performs even poorer than we assume, then we may even look at our numbers once again in the next months to come,” Birol told Reuters in an interview.
Last year, the IEA predicted that 2019 oil demand would grow by 1.5 million bpd but had already cut the growth forecast to 1.2 million bpd in June this year.
Speculators have exited options positions that could have provided exposure to higher prices in the next several years, market participants said on Thursday.
US offshore oil and gas production has continued to return to service since Hurricane Barry passed through the Gulf of Mexico last week, triggering platform evacuations and output cuts.
Royal Dutch Shell, a top Gulf producer, said Wednesday it had resumed about 80 percent of its average daily production in the region.