EIA: US oil production to jump 25%

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Updated 09 January 2013
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EIA: US oil production to jump 25%

NEW YORK: US crude oil production is expected to rise by the largest amount on record in 2013, the Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday, and is set to soar by almost a quarter over the next two years.
The EIA, the independent statistical arm of the Department of Energy, said US crude oil production would grow by 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2013 to 7.3 million bpd. The agency's forecast in the monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook is 300,000 bpd higher than its estimate in December.
While the rate of increase is seen slowing slightly in 2014 to 600,000 bpd, the total jump in US oil production to 7.9 million bpd would be up 23 percent from the 6.4 million bpd pumped domestically in 2012.
The rapid increase underscores how improvements in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing technology -- commonly referred to as “fracking” — have transformed the United States energy market in the last five years, allowing producers to tap shale oil from tight rock formations.
The latest forecast from the EIA is the first to include 2014.
If the agency's projections prove accurate, US crude oil production will have risen by a massive 40 percent between 2011 and 2014. It will be almost 50 percent higher than at the beginning of the decade, bolstering the argument of those who say North America could be energy independent by the end of the decade.
Adam Sieminski, administrator of the EIA, said that as output in North Dakota's Bakken formation and Texas's Eagle Ford fields has risen sharply over the past 12 months, US producers were becoming even more prolific.
"The learning curve in the Bakken and Eagle Ford fields, which is where the biggest part of this increase is coming from, has been pretty steep," Sieminski said.
While he cautioned that the long-term outlook beyond 2020 suggested production from shale fields in the United States may plateau, he said it was possible analysts were still underestimating the potential of U.S. shale oil output in the short-term.
The EIA said in the forecast that the rise in US output would contribute to a well supplied market over the next two years. The agency said that international Brent crude oil prices would fall slightly in 2013 to around $105 a barrel on average from just under $ 112 last year, before falling to $ 99 a barrel in 2014.
US benchmark West Texas Intermediate is seen averaging $ 89 a barrel in 2013 and $ 91 a barrel in 2014.
Global oil demand is forecast to rise by 900,000 bpd in 2013 to 90.1 million bpd led by fast-developing countries like China and India and is seen rising by a further 1.4 million bpd in 2014, the EIA said.
Indeed, in 2014, developing countries are seen making up more than 50 percent of total global oil demand for the first time, surpassing the consumption of countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
World oil supply is seen surpassing demand growth over the next two years, however, forcing the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to curb production, the EIA said.
Non-OPEC production is forecast to increase by 1.4 million bpd in 2013 and by 1.3 million bpd in 2014, the EIA said, though the agency warned there are "considerable risks" to the forecast due to the rapid pace of the evolution of the North American oil industry and geopolitical threats to supplies.
The EIA said OPEC would continue to pump more than 30 million bpd to help meet demand, but said it would likely curtail production by about 600,000 bpd this year to help balance the market and support prices.


Industry-specific ban on expats in Oman likely to remain, despite reaching recruitment target

Updated 54 min 15 sec ago
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Industry-specific ban on expats in Oman likely to remain, despite reaching recruitment target

  • The Oman government imposed a recruitment ban on expats for 87 different lines of work in January
  • The initial target of recruiting 25,000 Omanis by May is almost reached, not the government is likely to double that number

DUBAI: Oman’s Ministry of Manpower has pledged to continue in its push to recruit locals over expats even after its target was reached, the Times of Oman has reported.

The government set itself a deadline of May, but it was already just 55 jobs shy of the 25,000 target, the report added, predicting that the remaining people would be appointed before the week was over.

Now the government is looking to double the target to 50,000 Omanis.

More than half of those recruited are men, according to government data, with male appointments accounting for 16,884, while 8,061 women were recruited during the same period. 

A ban on hiring expats in 87 professions was implemented in January as the Gulf country continued in its Omanization project, aimed at tackling high levels of unemployment among locals. 

And now the ministry has said Omanis should always be given priority over expats, when it came to hiring – adding that the ban would stay in force as long as there were Omanis suited to the positions.

Those people employed so far were appointed to private sector positions between December 2017 and April 2018, the report added.

 

 

The construction industry accounts for 32.4 percent of those recruited, with 14.5 percent going into the retail sector, 13.5 percent in manufacturing and 7.1 percent working in transportation.

A spokesman for the Ministry of Manpower said: “Most Omanis were hired in the construction sector as it has lots of job vacancies especially in the engineering, technical and administration fields.”

The push in Oman to recruit more locals is in line with other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries which are following similar projects, not least in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

 

 

Decoder

An extension to the expat recruitment ban?

Not only is Oman’s Ministry of Manpower considering extending the current recruitment ban on expats for 87 professions, but also adding other lines of work to the list.

FACTOID

In numbers

The most recent census in 2016 put the Oman population at: 4,550,538. But expats account for nearly half at 2.082 million. There are 2.463 million Omanis