Published — Friday 7 December 2012
Last update 7 December 2012 12:29 am
LONDON: BNP Paribas cut its gold price forecast for 2013, citing cautious market sentiment, and sees prices dropping in 2014, which would be the first annual decline in 14 years.
“Our downward revision (for 2013) is largely due to mark-to-market considerations rather than a change in our fundamental view,” analyst Anne-Laure Tremblay said in a note to clients.
The analyst said gold’s performance was disappointing in the last two months as the metal failed to benefit from the absence of extreme episodes of risk aversion, US Federal Reserve easing, or seasonal demand in India and the West.
Tremblay still expects gold to achieve a new record high in 2013 due to further monetary easing, less tail risk related to a breakup of the euro zone, and ongoing support from physical demand.
BNP lowered its 2013 gold price forecast to $ 1,865 per ounce from $ 1,900. The bank expects gold prices to average $ 1,780 an ounce in 2014.
“Fundamentals of the precious metal will turn progressively more negative (in 2014) as the market starts to anticipate a withdrawal of monetary easing measures in line with improving economic growth,” the analyst said.
“The extent of the decline will, however, be limited as gold will continue to attract investor flows thanks to its diversification and safe haven properties.”
Gold prices steadied above $1,690 an ounce yesterday, as buyers remained on the sidelines after the European Central Bank left rates unchanged as expected, and on uncertainty over negotiations to avert a US fiscal crisis.
Confidence in gold has ebbed this month after it failed to push above $ 1,730 in November. A weak technical picture helped push prices to a one-month low on Wednesday, taking them below their 100-day moving average for the first time since August.
Spot gold was at $ 1,692.91 an ounce at 1303 GMT, little changed from $1,693.41 an ounce late on Wednesday, while US gold futures for December delivery were up 60 cents an ounce at $1,694.40.
The euro was little changed against the dollar after the European Central Bank kept interest rates on hold at 0.75 percent as expected by most market players.
Buyers are awaiting direction from non-farm payrolls data today, and next week’s US Federal Reserve policy meeting, as well as clearer signals on how the US will deal with negotiations over its upcoming “fiscal cliff.”
That refers to the possibility that a $600 billion package of tax hikes and spending cuts due to kick in in the New Year could push the world’s biggest economy back into recession.
“We have the ECB decision today, with some (talk) of Spain applying now for financial help, and furthermore we have the Fed decision,” LGT Capital analyst Bayram Dincer said. “Also, some people are positioning for year-end, profit taking. All of this is adding to negative sentiment in the gold market.”
The ECB is wary of taking any action that could see the euro zone’s governments soft-pedal budget-consolidation efforts. That puts the onus on Spain to ask for a full bailout before the ECB can intervene and buy Spanish sovereign debt.
Gold priced in euros slipped into oversold territory after falling nearly 2 percent this week, posting its biggest one-day decline in six months on Wednesday and touching its lowest since mid-July at 1,288.85 euros an ounce.
Its 14-day relative strength index stood at 28.9 yesterday, with any reading less than 30 considered to signal oversold conditions.
Investors’ appetite for physical gold and physically backed investment products remained sharp, with holdings of the largest gold exchange-traded fund, New York’s SPDR Gold Trust, at a record high.
Demand in India, historically the world’s biggest buyer of gold, was also firm as prices fell to their lowest in a month, weighed by a stronger rupee and a decline in spot prices.
“Buying is on, as people feel prices are good,” Haresh Acharya, head of the bullion desk at Gujarat-based Parker Bullion, said. “Wedding demand is expected to continue for another couple of months.”
From a chart perspective, further losses in gold could take prices down to support at its November low at $ 1,672.50 an ounce, and its 200-day moving average at $ 1,660.
Among other precious metals, silver was down 0.15 percent at $ 32.79 an ounce.
Silver has lost some ground to gold so far this month, with the gold/silver ratio, which measures the number of silver ounces needed to buy an ounce of gold, edging further from last week’s near eight-month low at 50.42 to 51.6 yesterday.
Spot platinum was up 0.33 percent at $ 1,581.15 an ounce, while spot palladium was up 0.07 percent at $ 682.97 an ounce.