OPEC expects global oil demand to reach 88.87 mbpd this year

Updated 11 April 2013
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OPEC expects global oil demand to reach 88.87 mbpd this year

VIENNA: OPEC kept its world oil demand forecasts for 2012 and 2013 virtually unchanged yesterday, with China expected to contribute the most to growth while industrialized countries appeared to be headed for a decline.
The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) expects world demand to reach 88.87 million barrels per day (mbpd) this year, slightly higher than its previous forecast in March of 88.83 mbpd.
This would represent a hike of 770,000 bpd from the revised figure for 2011, the organization said in its latest monthly report.
For 2013, it forecast 89.66 mbpd, with slow growth at the beginning of the year picking up in the second half, OPEC said.
"The largest share of this growth is expected to come from China, with 0.4 mbpd," meaning that oil demand for that country alone would reach 10.1 mpbd this year.
"In contrast, OECD (industrialized countries) demand is expected to see a contraction of 0.3 mbpd," the report said.
With the Americas making up the most demand in terms of regions, OPEC warned about developments in the United States, with oil consumption "strongly dependent on the impact of the (planned) spending cuts and newly adopted budget ceilings in the near future" as well as growing interest in alternative fuel sources.
Meanwhile, global oil prices fell yesterday but trimmed earlier losses after signs of stronger-than-expected demand in top crude consumer the United States, analysts said.
Brent North Sea crude for delivery in May dipped 51 cents to $ 105.72 per barrel in late afternoon deals in London.
New York's main contract, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light sweet crude for May shed 25 cents to $ 93.95.
The US government's Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed yesterday that American crude reserves grew 250,000 barrels in the week ending April 5.
That was far less than market expectations for a large gain of 1.2 million barrels, according to analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires, and indicated solid demand.
"WTI was in the spotlight today with the weekly government EIA report on petroleum stocks showing a lower-than-expected rise in crude stockpiles," said analyst Michael Hewson at CMC Markets.
The EIA meanwhile added that US gasoline or petrol stockpiles rose 1.7 million barrels last week. That confounded estimates for a drop of one million barrels.
Torbjorn Kjus, oil market analyst at Oslo-based DNB Bank, said that the overall impression from the inventory report was "bearish", meaning that it would likely weigh on prices.
He added that gasoline demand was "weak", as stockpiles were normally expected to drop at this time of year.
Crude futures also trimmed losses after Federal Reserve meeting minutes suggested the central bank would curtail stimulus measures only if the job market improves significantly.
Minutes from the Fed's March 19-20 meeting reaffirmed the central bank's commitment to its quantitative easing program until the job markets improves.
The minutes showed policymakers slightly more inclined to reel in QE bond purchases this year amid signs of recovery in the labour market.
Kjus also noted that traders were still digesting a "mixed bag" of data from China, which is the world's biggest energy consuming nation.
"Overnight we had some mixed-bag Chinese trade figures which showed exports growth slowed in March to 10 percent compared to a year ago, while imports growth surged to 14.1 percent.
"However, imports of oil by the world's second largest economy fell 2.1 percent. This only helped to exacerbate demand worries which have come to the forefront recently following the release of some disappointing global economic data."


Iran rial plunges to new lows as US sanctions loom

Updated 24 June 2018
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Iran rial plunges to new lows as US sanctions loom

  • The dollar was being offered for as much as 87,000 rials, compared to around 75,500 on Thursday
  • The currency has been sliding for months because of a weak economy

DUBAI: The Iranian rial plunged to a record low against the US dollar on the unofficial market on Sunday, continuing its slide amid fears of returning US sanctions after President Donald Trump in May withdrew from a deal on Tehran’s nuclear program.
The dollar was being offered for as much as 87,000 rials, compared to around 75,500 on Thursday, the last trading day before Iran’s weekend, according to foreign exchange website Bonbast.com, which tracks the unofficial market.
Iran’s semi-official news agency ISNA said the dollar had climbed to 87,000 rials on Sunday from about 74,000 before the weekend on the black market, and several Iranian websites carried similar reports.
The currency has been sliding for months because of a weak economy, financial difficulties at local banks and heavy demand for dollars among Iranians who fear the pullout by Washington from the nuclear deal and renewed US sanctions against Tehran could shrink the country’s exports of oil and other goods.
The fall of the national currency has provoked a public outcry over the quick rise of prices of imported consumer goods.
Merchants at the mobile phone shopping centers Aladdin and Charsou in central Tehran protested against the rapid depreciation of the rial by shutting down their shops on Sunday, the semi-official news agency Fars reported.
A video posted on social media showed protesters marching and chanting “strike, strike!” The footage could not be authenticated independently by Reuters.
Hours later, Information and Communications Technology Minister Mohammad Javad Azari-Jahromi said on Twitter that he visited the protesting merchants.
“I will try to help provide hard currency for (mobile) equipment (imports),” Azari-Jahromi wrote, adding: “The merchants’ activity has now gone back to normal.”
Some of the US sanctions against Iran take effect after a 90-day “wind-down” period ending on Aug. 6, and the rest, most notably on the petroleum sector, after a 180-day “wind-down” period ending on Nov. 4.
The rial has weakened from around 65,000 rials just before Trump’s announcement of the US withdrawal in early May, and from 42,890 at the end of last year — a freefall that threatens to boost inflation, hurt living standards and reduce the ability of Iranians to travel abroad.
In an effort to halt the slide, Iranian authorities announced in April they were unifying the dollar’s official and black market exchange rates at a single level of 42,000, and banning any trade at other rates under the threat of arrest.
But this step has failed to stamp out the unofficial market because authorities have been supplying much less hard currency through official channels than consumers are demanding. Free market trade simply went underground, dealers said.