Goldman lowers Brent forecast

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Updated 25 April 2013
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Goldman lowers Brent forecast

NEW YORK: Goldman Sachs lowered its 2013 Brent price forecast to $ 105.00 from $ 110.00, as a possible slowdown in Chinese demand, weaker-than-expected European demand, and higher European refinery activity were seen weighing on crude oil.
Goldman also lowered its three-month Brent forecast to $ 100.00 per barrel from $ 110.00 it said in a note.
Goldman said its Chinese economists saw near-term headwinds to real growth improvement continuing, along with an increased risk that Chinese oil demand growth will remain relatively weak in the near-term.
It also shifted its near-term outlook on commodity returns to Neutral from Overweight, citing deepening concerns around global growth.
Goldman left its assumption on the WTI-Brent spread unchanged, with its 12-month outlook for WTI crude at $ 97.00 per barrel.
Brent crude rose above $ 101 a barrel yesterday as stockpiles of gasoline declined in top consumer the US, but gains were checked by the prospect of slower growth and fuel demand in major economies.
The North Sea benchmark had been trending higher in earlier trade, tracking European equities on a view that central banks could intensify efforts to revive a flagging global recovery.
And the possibility of stronger demand for US gasoline emerged after data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed stocks of the motor fuel slumped last week.

“The report is supportive to prices due to the large decline in gasoline inventories,” said John Kilduff of Again Capital LLC in New York.
“Being the seasonal leader of the complex, the decline will have an outsized effect on price action.
Brent futures were up 71 cents at $ 101.02 a barrel by 1458 GMT, while US oil gained 97 cents to $ 90.15.
Oil’s gains were kept in check by gloomy economic data in big consumers.
Growth in Chinese factories slowed to a crawl as export demand dwindled, while Germany, the euro zone’s largest economy, saw business activity decline for the first time in five months.
The prospect of a slowing global economy dampening oil demand growth has already shaved $ 10 off the price of Brent since the start of April. And uncertainty over global growth may result in commodities facing increased volatility.
“We continue to view recent weakness in the data flow as consolidation, rather than the start of a 2012-style capitulation, but remain watchful of the loss of momentum in the manufacturing sector from these key countries,” analysts from ANZ bank said in a note.
In the US, crude stocks fell last week as imports dropped while refined fuel inventories were mixed, data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed late on Tuesday.
API’s data showed that crude inventories fell by 845,000 barrels in the week to April 19, compared with analysts’ expectations for an increase of 1.5 million barrels.


Saudi minister Al-Falih says Aramco IPO likely in 2019

Updated 25 May 2018
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Saudi minister Al-Falih says Aramco IPO likely in 2019

  • Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih: “We are ready, the company (Saudi Aramco) essentially has ticked all the boxes. We’re simply waiting for a market readiness for the IPO.”
  • Khalid Al-Falih: “Most likely it will be in 2019 but we will not know until the announcement has been made. All I could say is stay tuned.”

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia is most likely to hold the initial public offering (IPO) of oil giant Aramco in 2019, Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said on Friday, confirming a delay from the initial plan to list the company this year.

“The timing I think will depend on the readiness of the market, rather than the readiness of the company or the readiness of Saudi Arabia,” Khalid Al-Falih, who’s also the company’s chairman, said at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in Russia on Friday.

“We are ready, the company essentially has ticked all the boxes,” he said. “We’re simply waiting for a market readiness for the IPO.”

For almost two years, Saudi officials said the IPO was “on track, on time” for the second half of 2018. But for the first time in March they suggested it could be delayed until 2019.

“Most likely it will be in 2019 but we will not know until the announcement has been made,” Al-Falih said. “All I could say is stay tuned.”

The Aramco IPO would be a once-in-a-generation event for financial markets. Saudi officials said they hope to raise a record $100 billion by selling a 5 percent stake, valuing the company at more than $2 trillion and dwarfing the $25 billion raised by Chinese retailer Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. in 2014.