Goldman lowers Brent forecast

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Updated 25 April 2013
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Goldman lowers Brent forecast

NEW YORK: Goldman Sachs lowered its 2013 Brent price forecast to $ 105.00 from $ 110.00, as a possible slowdown in Chinese demand, weaker-than-expected European demand, and higher European refinery activity were seen weighing on crude oil.
Goldman also lowered its three-month Brent forecast to $ 100.00 per barrel from $ 110.00 it said in a note.
Goldman said its Chinese economists saw near-term headwinds to real growth improvement continuing, along with an increased risk that Chinese oil demand growth will remain relatively weak in the near-term.
It also shifted its near-term outlook on commodity returns to Neutral from Overweight, citing deepening concerns around global growth.
Goldman left its assumption on the WTI-Brent spread unchanged, with its 12-month outlook for WTI crude at $ 97.00 per barrel.
Brent crude rose above $ 101 a barrel yesterday as stockpiles of gasoline declined in top consumer the US, but gains were checked by the prospect of slower growth and fuel demand in major economies.
The North Sea benchmark had been trending higher in earlier trade, tracking European equities on a view that central banks could intensify efforts to revive a flagging global recovery.
And the possibility of stronger demand for US gasoline emerged after data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed stocks of the motor fuel slumped last week.

“The report is supportive to prices due to the large decline in gasoline inventories,” said John Kilduff of Again Capital LLC in New York.
“Being the seasonal leader of the complex, the decline will have an outsized effect on price action.
Brent futures were up 71 cents at $ 101.02 a barrel by 1458 GMT, while US oil gained 97 cents to $ 90.15.
Oil’s gains were kept in check by gloomy economic data in big consumers.
Growth in Chinese factories slowed to a crawl as export demand dwindled, while Germany, the euro zone’s largest economy, saw business activity decline for the first time in five months.
The prospect of a slowing global economy dampening oil demand growth has already shaved $ 10 off the price of Brent since the start of April. And uncertainty over global growth may result in commodities facing increased volatility.
“We continue to view recent weakness in the data flow as consolidation, rather than the start of a 2012-style capitulation, but remain watchful of the loss of momentum in the manufacturing sector from these key countries,” analysts from ANZ bank said in a note.
In the US, crude stocks fell last week as imports dropped while refined fuel inventories were mixed, data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed late on Tuesday.
API’s data showed that crude inventories fell by 845,000 barrels in the week to April 19, compared with analysts’ expectations for an increase of 1.5 million barrels.


China sorghum imports jump after Beijing dropped probe into US shipments: Customs

Updated 23 July 2018
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China sorghum imports jump after Beijing dropped probe into US shipments: Customs

  • China brought in 450,000 tons of sorghum in June, up from last year’s 324,301 tons
  • Corn buyers, meanwhile, scooped up cargoes on worries over the return of US-China trade policy tit-for-tat amid high domestic prices

BEIJING: China’s sorghum imports in June surged 38.1 percent on year, boosted by a temporary easing of Sino-US trade tensions, while corn imports for the month rose to one of highest levels in the past decade, customs data showed on Monday.
China brought in 450,000 tons of sorghum in June, up from last year’s 324,301 tons. Volumes were still down slightly from 470,000 tons in May, data from the General Administration of Customs showed.
Beijing announced in mid-April that importers of sorghum from the United States would have to put up a 178.6 percent deposit on the value of shipments. Several cargoes already on the way changed course and were diverted to other markets.
A month later in a goodwill measure, however, China dropped the deposit and an anti-dumping probe into US sorghum imports as the two sides appeared to be reaching consensus on resolving trade issues.
“Some cargoes were already on the way to China when Beijing dropped the deposit. Then they cleared customs in weeks after. That should have pushed up the June volumes,” said Cherry Zhang, an analyst with Shanghai JC Intelligent Co. Ltd, before the data release.
Corn buyers, meanwhile, scooped up cargoes on worries over the return of US-China trade policy tit-for-tat amid high domestic prices.
Corn imports in June hit 520,000 tons, up 34.6 percent from a year ago and the second highest since July last year. The figures were down from 760,000 tons in May, the data showed.
The corn imports in the first six months tripled to 2.21 million tons, already close to China’s total 2017 purchase of 2.82 million tons of the grain, according to the data.
“There were margins importing corn as domestic corn prices were relatively high. And buyers were buying more corn in recent couple of months to prepare for the Sino-US trade tension in advance,” said Meng Jinhui, an analyst with Shengda Futures.
UScorn and sorghum shipments to China should drop significantly in July and August, analysts and traders said, as Beijing imposed a 25 percent tariff on US grains on July 6.
China buys almost all its sorghum imports from the United States.
In the first half of this year, China has brought in 3.25 million tons of sorghum, up 8.7 percent from the same period of 2017, the data showed.
China also brought in 590,000 tons of barley in June, down 5.6 percent from a year ago. Barley imports for the first half of the year were at 4.4 million tons, down 2.7 percent.
Wheat imports were at 310,000 tons in June, down 33.6 percent from a year ago. Wheat imports for the first half were at 1.95 million tons, down 26.4 percent, the data showed.
China bought 280,000 tons of sugar and 98,566 tons of pork in June. In the first half of the year, China’s sugar imports were at 1.38 million tons, and shipments of pork were at 647,985 tons, both down from last year’s levels.