Kingdom leads GCC in nonoil production

Updated 17 July 2013
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Kingdom leads GCC in nonoil production

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are strenuously working to diversify income sources and minimize reliance on oil through investment in leading industrial activities, local media reported.
Saudi Arabia, in particular, is leading the GCC region to develop nonoil sector where the value of the ongoing nonoil projects is estimated at $ 17 billion (SR 63.7 billion), Al-Riyadh daily said quoting a report by Gulf Investment Corporation (GIC).
The Kingdom has reportedly occupied the 12th rank among the world's biggest 40 countries concerned with renewable energy sources.
In other GCC countries, the UAE has spent $ 5 billion in solar energy projects, currently under construction, whereas the value of nonoil projects is estimated at $ 2.1 billion, which are mostly concentrated in Abu Dhabi Emirate.
The Kingdom recently announced four solar energy projects, notably the solar energy project in Makkah, announced in the last quarter of 2012, whereby the holy city will become the first area to use an alternative energy source in the Kingdom, the local media said.
In Qatar, meanwhile, nonoil projects captured some $ 2.8 billion, mostly in iron and steel industries. Cement industry is predicted to lead business sector in the next five years at the growth rate of 11.2 percent followed by consumer industry sector at 7.7 percent.
On the other hand, the GCC countries will continue to achieve high rates of economic growth in the current year despite a slight decline in the oil prices and lower exports, which dropped by 5 percent compared to last year’s figures, the local media said.
Based on the above situation, levels of personal incomes have steadily increased, which led to the expansion of bank deposits, particularly in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, and encouraged the banks to expand banking credits.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has topped the MENA countries in terms of solar energy projects where it got 4.1 points out of 5 points, according to a report released by VtM, a US solar research firm.
Turkey came second at 3.9 points, followed by Abu Dhabi and Morocco jointly at 3.6 points in the third rank, Jordan in the fifth rank (3.2 points), Dubai in the sixth rank (3.1 points), Algeria and Egypt jointly in the seventh rank (3 points), and Qatar in the ninth rank (2.4 points).
The MENA region has the biggest solar energy potentials globally whereas Saudi Arabia and Turkey will lead the regional countries in terms of the highest energy demand and will become the first two countries to use the electric scale of GigaWatt (or billion watts) by 2015, according to the VtM report.


Iran looms large over OPEC summit

Updated 22 September 2018
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Iran looms large over OPEC summit

  • Saudi Arabia only country in Mideast, and perhaps world, with enough capacity to keep market supplied, say experts
  • At Algiers, Opec and leading non-Opec countries are expected to discuss how to allocate supply increases to offset a shortage of Iran supplies

LONDON: The Opec summit in Algiers on Sunday meets amid widespread fears of a supply crunch when a forecast 1.4 million barrels a day of crude is lost from Iran in November when US sanctions kick in.
If, on top of that, more supply shocks hit the market in worse-than-expected disruption from Libya and Iraq, the price of crude could surge, said Andy Critchlow, head of energy news at S&P Global Platts. “At the moment, the market looks finely balanced,” he said.
There isn’t a lot of slack in the system. As Critchlow points out: “Upstream investment in infrastructure and new wells is historically low and it will take a long time to turn that around.”
At Algiers, Opec and leading non-Opec countries are expected to discuss how to allocate supply increases to offset a shortage of Iran supplies. The gathering comes after a tweet by President Trump on Sept. 20 calling on Opec to lower prices. He said on Twitter that “they would not be safe for very long without us, and yet they continue to push for a higher and higher oil price.”
Critchlow reckoned KSA still had spare capacity of about 2 million bpd. And KSA would get oil back as they go into winter as it had needed 800,000m bpd merely to generate electricity for the home market to meet heightened demand for air conditioning in the summer.
But there is uncertainty about what will come out of Algiers. For a start, the Iranians say they will not attend. That could be tricky in terms of an Opec communique at the end of the meeting as statements need unanimous support from member nations. And Iran has indicated it will veto any move that would affect Iran’s position, ie, one where other countries absorb its market share as sanctions bite.
Jason Gammel, energy analyst at London broker Jefferies, said: “The magnitude of the drop in Iranian exports is likely to be higher than any hit in demand as a result of problems linked to emerging market currencies, or trade wars. That’s why we expect oil prices to continue to strengthen. The Saudis and their partners will keep the market well supplied, and I think the issue is that the level of spare capacity in the system will be extremely low. Any threat or interruption will mean price spikes. Possibly by the end of the year demand will exceed supply; for now, the market remains in balance, but threats of supply disruption will bring volatility.”
Under the spotlight in Algiers is a production cuts accord forged by Opec and 11 other countries in 2016 which has been extended to the end of this year. The agreement helped reboot prices and obliterate inventory stockpiles that led to the crash in crude prices nearly three years ago. But how long will the agreement last? Algiers may kick that one into the long grass.
Thomson Reuters analysts Ehsan Ul-Haq and Tom Kenison told Arab News: “OPEC members would like to maintain cohesion within the group around supply ahead of Iran sanctions and declining Venezuela production, However, they are expected be in favor of maintaining stability in prices while doing so. On the other hand, they need to find a consensus around how their market share would be affected by a decision to pump more oil in the market. Any decision around production will likely be offset until the November meeting.”
Critchlow said that it is what KSA and Russia say and do that matters. “They speak for a fifth of the global oil market, producing a combined total of 22m bpd.” Together, they are the swing producers when it comes to crude production and supply.
Another factor about Algiers is that it is a meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, which is not a policy-making forum. Big policy statements may have to wait for the main Opec summit in Vienna at the end of year. That said, there will be some very high-level delegations in Algiers, including the Saudi oil minister and his Russian counterpart.
A statement about the demand picture could emerge, especially as there are fears about the impact on the global economy from the US-China tariff war.
Looking to the future, Critchlow thought the Opec production cuts accord would carry on into 2019. “Oil priced between $70/bbl and $80/bbl is a sweet spot for Middle East producers. Its’s good for Saudi as it helps stop further drainage of their foreign reserves and moves the budget back toward balance. Do they want (the price) to go higher? I think that would cause a lot of political problems for them.”