Brazil meets 2016 inflation target

A consumer shops for apples at a market in Sao Paulo, Brazil. (Reuters/Paulo Whitaker)
Updated 11 January 2017
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Brazil meets 2016 inflation target

BRASILIA: Brazil’s inflation finished 2016 within the official target range, government data showed on Wednesday, reinforcing calls for an aggressive cycle of interest rate cuts by the central bank as the economy remains mired in recession.
Consumer prices rose 6.29 percent in 2016, slowing from an increase of 10.67 percent in 2015 and below the 6.5 percent ceiling of the official goal. Prices rose 0.30 percent in December from November, slightly below market forecasts for an increase of 0.33 percent.
It was the fourth month in a row in which prices rose more slowly than economists in a Reuters poll had expected, and the lowest inflation rate for December since 2008.
During most of 2016, the central bank had been widely expected to miss its target for the second year in a row. The surprisingly fast slowdown in prices prompted the central bank to start cutting interest rates from 14.25 percent beginning in October to try to avoid a third year of recession.
Most economists expect a reduction of 50 basis points in the benchmark Selic rate, to 13.25 percent. “This reinforces bets that the central bank will give at least a stronger signal that it will cut rates faster going forward,” said Marcio Milan, an economist with Sao Paulo-based consultancy Tendencias.
Inflation is expected to end 2017 at 4.8 percent, according to a weekly central bank poll of economists. However, it should fall to as low as 4 percent by August, below the 4.5 percent target midpoint, said Leonardo Franca Costa, an economist with Sao Paulo-based research firm MCM. Chronically high inflation has dented consumer confidence and hindered investment plans by companies in Brazil for years, as interest rates remain among the highest for major world economies. Part of the reason for the inflation slowdown is massive unemployment, which has helped curb prices of services.
A measure of services inflation that excludes volatile items rose 6.27 percent in 2016, down from 6.54 percent in the 12 months through November.


Gulf companies challenged by debt and rising interest rates

Updated 22 April 2018
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Gulf companies challenged by debt and rising interest rates

  • Debt restructurings on the rise, but below crisis levels
  • Central Bank of the UAE has raised interest rates four times since last March

There has been an uptick in recent months in heavily-borrowed companies in the Gulf seeking to restructure their debts with lenders. Although the pressure on companies is not comparable to levels witnessed in the region following the 2008 global financial crisis, rising interest rates will eventually begin to have a greater impact, say experts.
Speaking exclusively to Arab news, Matthew Wilde, a partner at consultancy PwC in Dubai, said: “We do expect that interest rate increases will gradually start to impact companies over the next 12 months, but to date the impact of hedging and the runoff of older fixed rate deals has meant the impact is fairly muted so far.”
The Central Bank of the UAE has raised interest rates four times since the start of last year, in line with action taken by the US Federal Reserve. The Fed has signalled that it will raise interest rates at least twice more before the end of the year.
Wilde added that there had been a little more pressure on company balance sheets of late, although “this shouldn’t be overplayed”.
Nevertheless, just last week, Stanford Marine Group — majority owned by a fund managed by private equity firm Abraaj Group — was reported by the New York Times to be in talks with banks to restructure a $325 million Islamic loan. The newspaper cited a Reuters report that relied on “banking sources”.
The Dubai-based oil and gas services firm, which has struggled as a result of the downturn in the hydrocarbons market since 2014, has reportedly asked banks to consider extending the maturity of its debt and restructuring repayments, after it breached certain loan covenants.
A fund managed by Abraaj owns 51 percent of Stanford Marine, with the remaining stake held by Abu Dhabi-based investment firm Waha Capital. Abraaj declined to comment.

 

Dubai-based theme parks operator DXB Entertainments struck a deal last month with creditors to restructure 4.2 billion dirhams ($1.1 billion) of borrowings, with visitor numbers to attractions such as Legoland Dubai and Bollywood Parks Dubai struggling to meet visitor targets.
Earlier this month, Reuters reported that Sharjah-based Gulf General Investment Company was in talks with banks to restructure loan and credit facilities after defaulting on a payment linked to 2.1 billion dirhams of debt at the end of last year.
Dubai International Capital, according to a Bloomberg report from December, has restructured its debt for the second time, reaching an agreement with banks to roll over a loan of about $1 billion. At the height of the emirate’s boom years, DIC amassed assets worth about $13 billion, including the owner of London’s Madame Tussauds waxworks museum, as well as stakes in Sony and Daimler. The firm was later forced to sell most of these assets and reschedule $2.5 billion of debt after the global financial crisis.
Wilde told Arab News: “We have seen an increasing number of listed companies restructuring or planning to restructure their capital recently — including using tools such as capital reductions and raising capital by using quasi equity instruments such as perpetual bonds.”
This has happened across the region and PwC expected this to accelerate a little as companies “respond to legislative pressures and become more familiar with the options available to fix their problems,” said Wilde.
He added that the trend was being driven by oil prices remaining below historical highs, soft economic conditions, and continued caution in the UAE’s banking sector.
On the debt restructuring side, Wilde said there had been a “reasonably steady flow of cases of debts being restructured”.
However, the volume of firms seeking to renegotiate debt remains small compared to the level of restructurings witnessed in the aftermath of Dubai’s debt crisis.
Several big name firms in the emirate were caught out by the onset of the global financial crisis, which saw the emirate’s booming economy and real estate market go into reverse.
State-owned conglomerate Dubai World, whose companies included real-estate firm Nakheel and ports operator DP World, stunned global markets in November 2009 when it asked creditors for a six-month standstill on its obligations. Dubai World restructured around $25 billion of debt in 2011, followed by a $15 billion restructuring deal in 2015.
“We would not expect it to become (comparable to 2008-9) so barring some form of sharp external impetus such as global political instability or a protectionist trade war,” said Wilde.
Nor did he see the introduction of VAT as particularly driving this trend, but rather as just one more factor impacting some already strained sectors (e.g. some sub sectors of retail) “which were already pressured by other macro factors.”

FACTOID

Four

The number of interest rate rises in the UAE since March 2017.