EU gets wake-up call as Gazprom eyes rival TAP pipeline
EU gets wake-up call as Gazprom eyes rival TAP pipeline
As the EU struggles against the “iron embrace” of Russian pipelines, it has made opening a new Southern Gas Corridor to carry gas from Azerbaijan by 2020 a priority.
The 10 billion cubic meter (bcm)-capacity Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) is the project’s end piece, joining up with the Trans Anatolian Pipeline at the Turkish border, then crossing Greece and Albania to reach Italy.
Construction work on TAP gives EU officials the first non-Russian gas pipeline to supply Europe since Algeria’s Medgaz link nearly a decade ago, paving the way for diluting Gazprom’s large one-third share of Europe’s gas market.
That at least was the plan, until Gazprom’s deputy head Alexander Medvedev last month said the company was considering pumping gas through the link under an auction system giving equal access to any would-be supplier.
Medvedev questioned Azerbaijan’s ability to fill the pipeline, saying Russia could step in to plug any shortfalls once the link is expanded. “It will not lie empty,” he said.
“That would be very bad,” one EU official said. “It would be totally contrary to everything we have agreed with partners.”
The EU worries Gazprom has abused its dominant position to overcharge central and eastern European states, some of which are nearly wholly reliant on Russian gas.
It foiled Russia’s South Stream project to pump gas to southeastern Europe under the Black Sea by insisting on anti-trust rules banning suppliers from owning pipelines, without giving other vendors access.
Taken together with separate Russian plans to double its Nord Stream pipeline to Germany, EU nations must fend off “this iron embrace from the North and from the South,” another EU official said.
While the first phase of TAP’s capacity will be filled by the BP-led consortium developing Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz II gasfield, TAP says any gas supplier can bid for another 10 bcm of capacity through so-called Open Season auctions.
Some of TAP’s shareholders — including Italy’s Snam and Belgium’s Fluxys — said they would welcome Gazprom’s entry and EU sources admitted there may be little they can do to keep Gazprom from bidding when the pipeline is expanded after 2020.
“We see the Southern Gas Corridor foremost as a major source of diversification: New gas, new route, new supplier,” European Commission Vice President Maros Sefcovic told Reuters.
EU sources said Russian gas flows via TAP may jar with the terms set by its financial backers, such as the European Investment Bank. The bank said it is carrying out due diligence.
At most, officials say they could extend an exemption from EU anti-trust rules to TAP in order to keep Gazprom out, but Brussels would require the firms and governments concerned to initiate the move.
Intervening may also run counter to the bloc’s goals of promoting an unregulated gas market. And it risks triggering a backlash from Moscow, whose plan to join TAP still hinges upon the construction and expansion of a major gas link to Turkey.
By accessing TAP, Gazprom is seeking to defend market share by flooding Europe with cheaper piped gas than would-be challengers, including from the east Mediterranean and North Africa, industry sources say.
“The hub around Israel, Cyprus, Egypt could compete, but if Russia can saturate the TAP, it will not be easy,” a senior Italian industry source said.
Last year Gazprom pursued another pipeline scheme — the Interconnector Turkey Greece Italy (ITGI) Poseidon, first backed by the EU as an alternative to Russian imports — for its own use.
“In the geopolitical game around Turkey and the EU, Russia is trying to keep all its options open,” said Kirsten Westphal of the SWP Foundation in Berlin. “That is clever ... because it makes it hard for others to take decisions on projects.”
Saudi energy minister compares electric vehicle ‘hype’ to peak oil misconceptions
- Khalid Al-Falih on Monday questioned what he described as the “hype” of the electric vehicle market
- Compared it to past misconceptions around the theory of peak oil
LONDON: Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih on Monday questioned what he described as the “hype” of the electric vehicle market and compared it to past misconceptions around the theory of peak oil.
He told the CERAWeek energy gathering by IHS Markit in New Delhi that petrol and diesel engines would co-exist with emerging electric and hydrogen fuel cell technologies for much longer than widely expected.
Miscalculations around the pace of electrification could create “serious” risks around global energy security, he said.
“Conventional vehicles today, despite all the hype, represent 99.8 percent of the global vehicle fleet. That means electric vehicles with 0.2 percent of the fleet, only substitute about 30,000 barrels per day of oil equivalent of a total global oil demand of about 100 million barrels.
“Even if those numbers increase by a factor of 100 over the next couple of decades, they would still remain negligible in the global energy mix.”
He said: “History tells us that orderly energy transformations are a complex phenomenon involving generational time frames as opposed to quick switches that could lead to costly setbacks.”
In another broadside aimed at electric vehicles, the Saudi energy minister highlighted past misconceptions about global energy demand growth — and specifically the notion of “peak oil.”
“I remember thought leaders within the industry telling us that oil demand will peak at 95 million barrels per day. Had we listened to them and not invested . . . imagine the tight spot we would be in today.”
“Let’s also remember that in many parts of the world, roughly three fourths of the electricity, which would also power electric vehicles, is currently generated by coal, including here in India. So you could think of any electric vehicle running in the streets of Delhi as essentially being a coal-powered automobile.”
“When it comes to renewables, the fundamental challenge of battery storage remains unresolved — a factor that is essential to the intermittency issue impacting wind and solar power. Therefore the more realistic narrative and assessment is that electric vehicles and renewables will continue to make technological and economic progress and achieve greater market penetration — but at a relatively gradual rate and as a result, conventional energy will be with us for a long, long time to come.”