Al-Falih: Oil output cuts may need to continue

Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih with Qatar Energy Minister Mohammed bin Saleh Al-Sada and UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrouei at an oil conference in Abu Dhabi. (AFP)
Updated 21 April 2017
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Al-Falih: Oil output cuts may need to continue

ABU DHABI: Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih on Thursday suggested that production cuts agreed to by members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and countries outside of the group may need to continue to help shore up crude oil prices.

The comments come as the price per barrel stand above $50 and increases in US shale oil production threaten to keep them low.
“There is an initial agreement but it has not been communicated to all the countries yet that we might be forced to extend in order to reach our goal,” Al-Falih said in a speech at an oil conference in Abu Dhabi.
OPEC agreed in late November to cut its production by 1.2 million barrels a day for six months, its first cut since 2008. Nearly a dozen other countries including Russia pledged in December to cut an additional 558,000 barrels a day.
OPEC is keen that non-member producers play their promised part in supporting the group’s efforts to lift prices, which have recovered to $53 a barrel from lows last year below $30.
OPEC and non-OPEC meet on May 25 to discuss extending the curbs that total 1.8 million barrels daily, two-thirds of that from OPEC.
OPEC sources said an internal assessment was that if they failed to extend the agreement, oil could slide back to $30-$40 a barrel.
Significant wild cards remain, however. President Donald Trump has pledged to free up more oil drilling in the US. The global economy remains weak as well. Meanwhile, shale oil production has started growing again in the US while Iran rushes to produce as much as it can to make up for years of economic sanctions it suffered over its contested nuclear program.
Talking about shale, UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazroui said producers involved in the cut made the decision “because we care about the balance in the market.”
He said: “This sacrifice cannot be taken as a sacrifice where someone else can benefit 100 percent.”
Kuwait’s Oil Minister Essam Al-Marzouq said he expected the output cut agreement to be extended. “Russia is on board preliminarily ... Compliance from Russia is very good,” Al-Marzouq said.
OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo, noting that Al-Marzouq chairs a committee that measures compliance with the cuts, said: “It is significant that the Kuwaiti minister has come out in public and said this.”

Inventories still high
Al-Falih said his main concern was to reduce global oil inventories, calling that “the main indicator for the success of the initiative.”
While inventories held at sea and in producer countries have dropped, they remain stubbornly high in consumer regions, particularly in Asia and the US.
Oil prices were largely flat on Thursday. Brent futures were at $52.93 barrel at 1345 GMT, unchanged from their last close. US crude futures were down 9 cents at $50.50 a barrel.
Both benchmarks had traded more than 50 cents higher earlier in the day, but gains eased at the start of US trading hours.
“The US market perhaps does not believe in the oil market balance that OPEC would have us believe,” said Hans van Cleef, senior energy economist with ABN AMRO.


The International Energy Agency said last week that inventories in industrialized countries were still 10 percent above the five-year average, a key gauge for OPEC.


OPEC seems to be encouraged by the contribution of non-OPEC producers to the output cuts.
Al-Marzouq said there was a “noticeable increase in compliance from non-OPEC.” Joint compliance among OPEC and non-OPEC in March was above 90 percent, he said.
Russia has not yet publicly committed to prolonging its curbs, although Energy Minister Alexander Novak said this month that Moscow would start consultations with producing companies about the possibility of doing so.
Al-Marzouq said another African nation, which he did not identify, had expressed interest in joining the 24-country effort.
One hold-out for an extended deal may be Iraq. Baghdad might seek to be exempt and ask to boost its own output, said the leader of the nation’s ruling coalition, Ammar Al-Hakim.
Speaking in Cairo, Al-Hakim cautioned that Baghdad could ask to be exempted from taking part in the supply curbs as the OPEC member country needed its oil income to fight Daesh.
“Given these sensitive circumstances, it is the right of Iraq to hope for an exemption by the other OPEC member states and have an opportunity to increase its production,” Al-Hakim, an influential cleric, said in an interview this week.
“But we are with the principle of reducing the overall OPEC supply to lift prices.”
Iran does not look likely to become an obstacle. The current deal granted Tehran permission to lift output, hit by Western sanctions that ended just over a year ago.
“Iran is not an issue. We know they cannot raise their production much more,” an OPEC source said.


Telegram Russia ban spurs privacy debate

Updated 28 min 56 sec ago
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Telegram Russia ban spurs privacy debate

  • Telegram has always attracted a mix of criticism and respect for its use of encryption to ensure its messages between users remain confidential.
  • A Moscow court decided last week to block the app in Russia because it refused to hand over encryption keys to authorities.

LONDON: Telegram, the messaging app that re-located from Russia to Dubai, has again fallen foul of the authorities in its mother country. So what is it about the social media platform that simultaneously has governments worldwide so concerned and freedom of speech advocates so agitated?
Telegram has always attracted a mix of criticism and respect for its use of encryption to ensure its messages between users remain confidential.
A Moscow court decided last week to block the app in Russia because it refused to hand over encryption keys to authorities — sparking fresh controversy around the app, which has previously been banned in countries such as Iran, Afghanistan and Indonesia.
Telegram has been under close scrutiny in Russia since legislation was passed in mid-2016 that required communication companies to hand over encryption keys to the Federal Security Service (FSB), if requested.
There was also a move to place companies on a “register of information distributors,” which requires firms to store user online communications for a set period of time and hand over data to the authorities when needed.

 


Some of Russia’s large social networks are reportedly on the register and Telegram was pressurized to register in mid-2017. Other Western social media companies such as WhatsApp are not listed. WhatsApp did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Weeks after joining the register, Telegram refused to agree to FSB requests for encryption keys, resulting in the Russian media watchdog Roskomnadzor seeking court approval this month to block the app.
On the day of the court decision, Telegram’s founder Pavel Durov tweeted: “Privacy is not for sale, and human rights should not be compromised out of fear or greed.” The company has also said it is technically impossible to transfer encryption keys.
It was not the Russian entrepreneur Durov’s first run-in with Russian authorities. Telegram — which was launched in 2013 — originally had its development team based in St. Petersburg, but had to leave the country due to local IT regulations. It is currently based in Dubai.
The messaging app prides itself in being the most secure and independent form of instant messaging that respects the need for privacy. Its “secret chats” option makes use of end-to-end encryption that ensures only users can read them. Messages cannot be forwarded and you can order messages to “self-destruct” within a set amount of time. It can also alert users if the recipient of the message takes a screenshot of the correspondence. So-called Telegram “Channels” can be used to broadcast public messages to a large audiences.
While WhatsApp — which is owned by Facebook — also provides end-to-end encryption, Telegram differentiates itself with claims it is faster and more secure.
Damir Gainutdinov is a legal analyst at Russian human rights group Agora, which represented Telegram in court. He has headed up its project on the defense of online freedom in Russia since 2010.
He told Arab News that the block placed on Russia was more of a power-play by the authorities.
“I think that Russian authorities believe that Telegram is a threat because they cannot control it.
“But I wouldn’t say that it is really the biggest threat. The attack on Telegram is more about showing that they can block any global service if they want,” he said.
Russia’s government has argued that the app helps to enable terrorist attacks in the country, saying that access to encrypted messages is a national security issue.
The FSB said a suicide bomber who killed 15 people on a St. Petersburg subway in April last year had used Telegram to plan the attack.
Voices from outside Russia have also criticized Telegram for not doing enough to clamp down on terrorists using the app. “Terrorists and extremist groups such as ISIS (Daesh) use encrypted applications like Telegram because it allows them to recruit new members, fundraise, incite to violence, and even coordinate terrorist activity without the threat of being discovered,” said executive director David Ibsen at the US-based non-government organization Counter-Extremism Project.
“ISIS also created public channels on Telegram to broadcast pro-ISIS news updates and disseminate other propaganda materials,” he told Arab News. Durov has been quoted as saying at a conference in 2015 that the right to privacy is more important to the company than “our fear of bad things happening, like terrorism.” Following the Paris attacks in 2015, Telegram did revise its policy on its public channels, but it has refused to take down private Daesh chats, according to Ibsen.
Social media sites are coming under increasing pressure from authorities worldwide to do more to limit the promotion of extremism online.
In a statement to Arab News, Twitter said it had permanently suspended 274,460 sites in the second half of last year — down more than 8 percent on the previous reporting period.
While Telegram is far from the only social media app to be criticized for its counter-terrorism policies, it is seen by some as the more reluctant player in the battle against online extremism. “Social media companies remove content regularly that violates their stated terms of service, and some of this includes extremist and terrorist videos, images and other propaganda,” said Ibsen. “However, despite the availability of technology that can identify and permanently prevent prohibited materials from being re-uploaded, the biggest social media platforms are not taking this vitally important step,” he said.
“Telegram has become a refuge app from the moment the preferred apps (Twitter in particular) started to clamp down on extremist content,” said Rik Coolsaet, a professor of international relations at Ghent University in Belgium who has written extensively on counter-terrorism efforts. “Its encryption offered a secure environment for terrorist recruiters and groomers, but at the same time limited their propaganda outreach, since it is more difficult to access. For that reason, Twitter remains their preferred app,” he added.
Russia is not the only country clamping down on Telegram. Iran restricted certain channels in December last year during the protests and there have been recent threats that restrictions could be reimposed. A estimated 40 million Iranians use Telegram’s channels and messaging services.
“In the case of Russia and Iran, the Telegram crackdown has much more to do with controlling the lives of its citizens than it does with preventing terrorist activity,” said Ibsen.
Telegram did not respond to Arab News’ request for comment.

 

Q&A
We talk to leading world cyber terrorism expert Chris Sampson, co-author of “Hacking ISIS: How to Destroy the Cyber Jihad” and an analyst with the Terror Asymmetrics Project

Why are governments so worried about Telegram?
Telegram was launched as an encrypted messaging app. This meant that government agencies were less likely to be able to intercept messages passing across the Internet and read private conversations. However, in September 2015, Telegram also created an option for channels, which act like chat groups. This allowed like-minded individuals to essentially host a chat room. Unless the channel was set to public you couldn’t read what was discussed without being given an invitation link. Groups like ISIS began using these channels to share propaganda and information. Other groups use Telegram in much the same manner. Non-violent resistance groups around the world would also use the messaging app and channels to communicate so authorities in the countries they fear would be less likely to intercept their discussions.

Will clamping down on social media apps be effective?
As governments crack down and ban apps, others will rise and replace them with new features and focus on security from outside eyes. They will operate either within the legal construct or outside of it depending on the countries they seek to circumvent. Since laws around the world differ dramatically, what is legal in one country could be illegal in another. We’ve seen this already happen as countries sought to ban use of Telegram, WhatsApp or even Twitter. Inevitably the access to the technology remains the same and users find a way to use both encrypted messaging and social media platforms.

Does Russia’s action set a precedent?
Countries such as Indonesia, Iran, Afghanistan and others have banned Telegram. Brazil banned WhatsApp around the timing of the World Cup only to lift the ban. Such bans are largely ineffective because the majority of users are engaged in lawful communications yet want their privacy, those engaged in illegal and potentially violent activities make up a fraction of the userbase. The better solution is to know where nefarious users are lurking on the web and keep track of them in observable spaces. Banning the public’s access to messaging apps will always fail. Telegram and similar companies should deny government agencies the keys to encryption unless there is a reason given that would justify unlocking communications. If the governments are able to seize a phone and unlock it, they’ll already have access to a suspect’s communication if they haven’t erased the data.

Decoder

Telegram

Telegram, founded by Russian entrepreneur Pavel Durov in 2013, is an app that enables encrypted messaging, together with “self-destruct” messages. It is used by 200 million people worldwide. Authorities in a number of countries criticized it for providing secure communications channels for terrorists and criminals.