Fleeing offensives, where are the militants going?

This undated frame grab from video posted online on May 19, 2017 by supporters of the Daesh militant group, shows Daesh fighters who recently joined the group receiving military training in the eastern Syrian province of Deir Ezzor. (Militant Photo via AP, File)
Updated 03 October 2017
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Fleeing offensives, where are the militants going?

BEIRUT: Daesh is under attack across the remaining parts of its self-proclaimed caliphate, but what happens to its thousands of fighters as their group loses grip on territory?
Facing multiple offensives, the militant group has lost the Libyan city of Sirte, Iraq’s Mosul and Ramadi, and is now on the verge of being ousted from its former Syrian stronghold Raqqa.
At its peak Daesh counted tens of thousands of fighters among its ranks, with US officials estimating as many as 40,000 foreign fighters traveled to join the militants over the years.
Forces attacking Daesh has regularly reported the deaths and arrests of large numbers of militants, but their figures are often vague and cannot be independently verified.
“We can’t give an exact number of those arrested but we can say that there are a good number of them being detained by our forces,” said Mustafa Bali, spokesman for the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces currently battling Daesh in Syria.
In Iraq’s Mosul, journalists saw the bodies of militants killed in fighting on the streets, but they numbered no more than a few dozen at any time, far less than the hundreds authorities often said had died in combat.
Other Daesh fighters may have been arrested and then executed.
In July, the Human Rights Watch group accused a unit of Iraq’s army of carrying out summary executions of suspected rebel prisoners.
A persistent fear for forces attacking Daesh is that its fighters will try to blend into the civilian population, either fleeing along with the displaced or staying behind in homes.
“The problem of operatives hiding among civilians who flee is certainly a major issue,” said Aymenn Al-Tamimi, a research fellow at the Middle East Forum.
“Operatives might stay behind and melt into the wider civilian population to function as sleeper cells or recruit others to become part of sleeper cells as well,” he told AFP.
In Syria, Bali said, some Daesh fighters “have been discovered in camps for the displaced via our databases.”
Others have been turned in by civilians who recognized and reported them.
But some fighters slip through nonetheless, especially as “some civilians are afraid to report them, fearing revenge will be taken against them,” said Rami Abdel Rahman, director of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitor.
Iraqi forces, like their counterparts in Syria, use a database to pick out suspected Daesh fighters from among civilians.
But a local Iraqi official said “a large number of Daesh elements are hiding among the population in Mosul, particularly in the Old City.” Their presence is evidenced by “the assassinations and bombings that continue daily,” said Hisham Al-Hashimi, a researcher who specializes in militant movements.
The many non-Arab foreign fighters among Daesh’s ranks may not be able to blend so easily into the fleeing civilian populations, with their features and language betraying them.
“There’s a lot of (Daesh) foreign fighters there that don’t want to give up and intend to fight very hard,” the top coalition commander assisting and advising the SDF told AFP.
Foreign fighters are often those carrying out suicide attacks, added Hashimi, and by the end of any given battle “the number of them left behind is very small.”
Their chances of returning home are slim, with intelligence services closely monitoring for returnees, and the Turkish border now tightly surveilled.
Charlie Winter, a senior research fellow at the International Center for the Study of Radicalization and Political Violence, said Daesh’s own propaganda suggested a loosening of its once-tight rules against leaving its territory for that of the “unbelievers.”
“The group has very indirectly — but also in my opinion unambiguously — essentially said that it is no longer impermissible to flee the IS (Daesh) territories,” he told AFP.
With its territory across Syria and Iraq rapidly shrinking, Daesh is now concentrating its resources in the Euphrates River valley that lies along the Syria-Iraq border, experts say.
For a long time now the center of gravity for Daesh has been shifting... toward places like Mayadeen and Albu Kamal, in the east of Syria’s Deir Ezzor province, said Winter.
Daesh “has very systematically been bulking up its infrastructure and its population in these places,” he added.
He said Daesh had likely ensured that large numbers of fighters moved to these areas well before they were surrounded in places like Raqqa and Mosul.
That means now that the fight for places like Mayadeen and Albu Kamal could be “surprisingly ferocious,” he said.


Erdogan’s ‘vile’ comments on Christchurch mosques shootings dismissed as not representative of Muslims

Updated 21 March 2019
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Erdogan’s ‘vile’ comments on Christchurch mosques shootings dismissed as not representative of Muslims

  • Turkish president has threatened to "send home in coffins" visitors from Australia, New Zealand
  • Aussie and NZ leaders want Turkey to explain the "vile" and "offensive" remarks

JEDDAH: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was condemned on Wednesday for “vile, offensive and reckless” comments after last week’s Christchurch mosque terrorist attacks.

Australia summoned the Turkish ambassador in Canberra to explain the remarks, and New Zealand dispatched its foreign minister to Ankara to “set the record straight, face to face.”

Brenton Tarrant, 28, an Australian white supremacist, was charged with murder on Saturday after he shot dead 50 people during Friday prayers at two mosques in Christchurch, New Zealand.

Erdogan, in election campaign rallies for his AK Party, urged New Zealand to restore the death penalty and said Turkey would make the killer pay if New Zealand did not.

He said anti-Muslim Australians who came to Turkey would be “sent back in coffins, like their grandfathers at Gallipoli,” and he accused Australian and New Zealand forces of invading Turkey during the First World War “because it is Muslim land.”

But an international affairs scholar in Riyadh said Erdogan’s comments should not be taken as representative of Muslims. 

"He is a propagandist and an unpredictable politician,” Dr. Hamdan Al-Shehri told Arab News. “He keeps saying these things and then he issues an apology. Right now, he is making these incendiary comments to win elections.”

It was inappropriate behavior for a head of state, Al-Shehri said. “Which president would use such language and issue these kind of comments?”

In his speech, Erdogan said that the Gallipoli peninsula campaign in 1915 was in fact an attempt by British colonial forces to relieve their Russian allies. The attack was a military disaster, and more than 11,000 Australian and New Zealand forces were killed. Thousands of people from both countries travel each year to Turkey for war memorial services, and the anniversary is marked on Anzac Day every April 25.

“Remarks have been made by the Turkish President Erdogan that I consider highly offensive to Australians and highly reckless in this very sensitive environment,” Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said after summoning the Turkish ambassador and dismissing the “excuses” offered.

“I am expecting, and I have asked, for these comments to be clarified, to be withdrawn.” Morrison described claims about Australia and New Zealand’s response to the white supremacist attack as “vile.” He accused Erdogan of betraying the promise of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk to forge peace between the two countries.

A memorial at Gallipoli carries Ataturk’s words: “There is no difference between the Johnnies and the Mehmets ... after having lost their lives on this land they have become our sons as well.”

“Ataturk sought to transform his country into a modern nation and an embracing nation, and I think these comments are at odds with that spirit,” Morrison said.

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said her deputy, Foreign Minister Winston Peters, would travel to Turkey to seek clarification of Erdogan’s comments. “He is going there to set the record straight, face-to-face,” she said.