Dubai to get spillover boost from Aramco listing says DIFC chief

Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC) Governor Essa Kazim. (Photo courtesy: social media)
Updated 11 November 2017
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Dubai to get spillover boost from Aramco listing says DIFC chief

DUBAI: Dubai is set to benefit from the spillover effect of a Saudi Aramco listing and other market reforms underway in Saudi Arabia, according to the chief of the emirate’s financial hub
The planned listing of Saudi Aramco and the opening of financial markets in Saudi Arabia will “increase the pie” of financial services in the region, said Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC) Governor Essa Kazim, in an interview on the sidelines of a World Economic Forum meeting in Dubai.
“Opening Saudi is completely a positive for the whole region,” said Kazim. “Our market is highly interactive with the Saudi market, so the investment flow that would come to Saudi would have a spillover into our market.
“So we are very much supportive of Saudi opening up , reforming, restructuring and meeting their 2030 Vision. It’s good for the whole region,” he said.
The planned listing of Saudi Aramco could be worth about $100 billion based on a 5 percent offering – about four times the size of the existing record held by Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba, which listed in 2014.
London and New York are among the international financial centers seeking to attract the prized Aramco share sale, which represents a touchstone for wider financial reforms underway in the Kingdom, as it opens up to increased foreign investment.
DIFC reported a 14 percent rise in the total number of firms last year despite a prolonged period of oil price weakness that contributed to economic jitters in the emirate.
Kazim said that despite wider economic headwinds facing the region, DIFC had managed to double the number of new occupiers at about 300 on an annual basis over the last three years – compared to the previous three years.
“That means companies are still coming here despite geopolitical issues,” he said. “Life and business has to go on.”
He said that the business park remains 99 percent occupied as it expands with new buildings under development.


IMF warns of rising risks to global growth amid trade tensions

Updated 16 July 2018
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IMF warns of rising risks to global growth amid trade tensions

  • Worsening trade confrontations pose serious risks to the outlook, the IMF said
  • The fund warns growth could be cut by a half point by 2020 if tariff threats are carried out

WASHINGTON: The global economy is still expected to grow at a solid pace this year, but worsening trade confrontations pose serious risks to the outlook, the International Monetary Fund said Monday.
The IMF’s updated World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast global growth of 3.9 percent this year and next, despite sharp downgrades to estimates for Germany, France and Japan.
The US economy is still seen growing by 2.9 percent this year, and the estimate for China remains 6.6 percent, with little impact expected near term from the tariffs on tens of billions of dollars in exports the countries have imposed on each other so far.
“But the risk that current trade tensions escalate further — with adverse effects on confidence, asset prices, and investment — is the greatest near-term threat to global growth,” IMF Chief Economist Maurice Obstfeld said.
The fund warns growth could be cut by a half point by 2020 if tariff threats are carried out.
Although the global recovery is in its second year, growth has “plateaued” and become less balanced, and “the risk of worse outcomes has increased,” Obstfeld said in a statement.
The report comes as US President Donald Trump has imposed steep tariffs duties on $34 billion in imports from China, with another $200 billion coming as soon as September, on top of duties on steel and aluminum from around the world including key allies.
China has matched US tariffs dollar for dollar and threatened to take other steps to retaliate, while US exports face retaliatory taxes from Canada, Mexico and the European Union.
“An escalation of trade tensions could undermine business and financial market sentiment, denting investment and trade,” the IMF report said.
In addition, “higher trade barriers would make tradable goods less affordable, disrupt global supply chains, and slow the spread of new technologies, thus lowering productivity.”
The IMF said growth prospects are below average in many countries and urged governments to take steps to ensure economic growth will continue.
The fund said global cooperation and a “rule-based trade system has a vital role to play in preserving the global expansion.”
However, without steps to “ensure the benefits are shared by all, disenchantment with existing economic arrangements could well fuel further support for growth-detracting inward-looking policies.”
The sweeping US tax cuts approved in December will help the economy “strengthen temporarily,” but growth is expected to moderate to 2.7 percent for 2019.
And while the fiscal stimulus will boost US demand, is also will increase inflationary pressures, the WEO warned.
China’s growth also is seen slowing in 2019 to 6.4 percent.
After upgrading growth projections for the euro area in the April WEO, the IMF revised them down by two-tenths in 2018 to 2.2 percent, due to “negative surprises to activity in early 2018,” and another tenth in 2019 to 1.9 percent.
The estimates for Germany, France and Italy were cut by 0.3 points each, with Germany seen expanding by 2.2 percent this year and 2.1 percent in 2019. France’s GDP is expected to grow 1.8 percent and 1.7 percent.
Meanwhile, Britain is now forecast to grow 1.4 percent this year, 0.2 points less than the April estimate, and 1.5 percent in 2019.
Japan’s GDP is seen slowing to 1.0 percent this year, two-tenths less than previously forecast, “following a contraction in the first quarter, owing to weak private consumption and investment.” It should grow 0.9 percent the following year.
India remains a key drivers of global growth, but the GDP outlook was cut one-tenth for this year and three-tenths for next year to 7.3 percent and 7.5 percent, respectively.
Brazil saw an even sharper 0.5-point downward revisions from the April forecast, to 1.8 percent this year.