More than two decades on from the Royal Family’s high-profile problems in the 1990s, including the divorce of Prince Charles and Princess Diana (Harry’s father and mother respectively), Queen Elizabeth II and her immediate family have now largely recovered from the worst troubles of her reign as the longest serving UK monarch. And it is Harry and William who have helped power the ruling clan’s popularity ratings in recent years.
Aside from the Queen and her husband Prince Philip themselves, a YouGov poll earlier this showed that William is regarded as having made the strongest contribution to the Royal family with 78% approval rating, followed by Harry (73%), and William’s wife Kate (73%). The popularity of Harry, who is fifth in line to the throne, is now likely to be bolstered by his marriage to Markle.
The US actress and humanitarian campaigner is likely to make her mark with much of the UK public, unlike the last US citizen who married a UK royal. The relationship between Wallis Simpson (like Markle, a divorcee) and King Edward VIII ultimately led to the 1936 abdication crisis.
Moreover, given the parallels between Diana and Markle it is possible that she could become very popular, in the UK and internationally, in her own right. Harry said on Monday that his mother and his fiancée “would be as thick as thieves” (indicating they have much in common) and Markle will now give up her career as an actress to focus on royal duties, and wider humanitarian campaigning, in a way that may prove comparable to Diana in the 1980s and 1990s.
Popular support for the newly engaged couple is likely to be especially intense next Spring when their high-profile wedding takes place. It will give the monarchy a new surge of energy, especially coinciding with the birth -- expected in April -- of the third child of William and Kate.
The renewed popular appeal of the royals has been buttressed by a modernized monarchy with many of the UK populace believing it has changed for the better. Key recent reforms include ending the rule of male primogeniture on the throne which means girls now born to members of the Royal Family have equal rights with boys in the succession to the throne, and ending the prohibition on Elizabeth’s successors marrying a Catholic. Harry’s engagement to Markle, who attended a Catholic school in California and is of mixed race, is only the latest chapter in this transformation process that brings it into line with that of wider changes in UK society at large.
Correspondingly, polls tend to show that less than a quarter of the UK population want a republic, with many people believing that it is better to have a non-divisive, non-political head of state. This factor may become even more important, in the future, given that the nation appears to potentially becoming increasingly divided on geographic lines, especially given increased pressure for independence in Scotland.
On the face of it, therefore, the monarchy seems in good stead to prosper in the post-Elizabeth II period. The Queen, now at 91 years of age, might choose to abdicate before she dies, and has already stepped back from some duties, including those requiring long-distance flights.
However, unlike Harry and William, their father Charles (the immediate heir to the throne) does not share their popularity. In the YouGov poll earlier this year, Charles and second wife Camilla trailed well behind the Queen, Philip, Harry and William on 36% and 18% popularity respectively.
The poll also found only a third of the UK populace believe Charles “has been beneficial for the Royal family”. This is down by nearly two thirds compared to four years ago, underlining that a rockier road may lie ahead for the monarchy once the Queen dies.
Charles at 69 is already at an age when many people are retired, and is the longest-waiting and oldest heir to the throne in UK history. Indeed, some surveys show that a significant body of the UK public would prefer the monarchy to skip a generation to William upon the Queen’s passing.
Taken overall, Monday’s Royal wedding announcement will boost the popularity of Harry and the wider ruling clan. However, while the monarchy has largely recovered its public standing from the 1990s, significant uncertainties remain about the post-Elizabeth II period, especially given popular sentiment towards Charles, and this means the monarchy could yet face a rockier road ahead once she dies.
Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics