Turkey inflation hits highest level since 2003

Merchants wait for customers at the historical Grand Bazaar in Istanbul. (Reuters)
Updated 04 December 2017
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Turkey inflation hits highest level since 2003

ANKARA: Turkey’s inflation in November hit its highest annual rate in 14 years at nearly 13 percent, according to official data released Monday.
Consumer prices rose 12.98 percent last month from the same period in 2016, the state statistics agency said, the highest annual rate recorded since December 2003.
Inflation had been 11.9 percent in October.
Monthly inflation meanwhile was up 1.49 percent in November from October, with transport, clothing and food showing strong rises.
The rise was sharper than analysts had predicted, and comes after the Turkish lira’s value against the US dollar declined by 13.5 percent since September.
Economists said that annual inflation would probably come down from December onwards but said it was still likely to remain in double digits.
Gokce Celik, chief economist at QNB Finansbank, said year-on-year inflation “is likely to spend the first half of the year (2018) above 10.5 percent.”
The Turkish central bank will hold its regular monetary policy committee meeting on Dec. 14 to decide on interest rates.
Liam Carson, Emerging Europe economist at London-based Capital Economics, said in a note the rise in inflation was “likely to prompt a rate hike next week.”
Economists agreed the bank needed to make a meaningful hike to interest rates but Inan Demir of Nomura International said this was “unlikely.”
“A large hike of several hundred basis points looks unlikely unless renewed (Turkish lira) depreciation pressures force the bank’s hand,” Demir said in a note.
The lira hit a record low of 3.97 against the greenback last month.
The Turkish currency was at 3.92 at 11.00 a.m. GMT on Monday.
Since the New York trial of a Turkish banker accused of violating US sanctions against Iran started last week, the lira has traded at more than 3.90 to the US dollar.
Turkish-Iranian gold trader Reza Zarrab, the prosecution’s star witness, admitted to being involved in a multibillion-dollar gold-for-oil scheme.
He also implicated President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the scheme allegedly designed to subvert sanctions, and admitted to bribing a former Turkish economy minister.
A guilty verdict in the trial that Ankara calls a “plot” against Turkey could see one or more Turkish banks fined, a move analysts say would hurt the country’s economy.


China’s real estate investment slows as caution sinks in

Updated 19 October 2018
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China’s real estate investment slows as caution sinks in

  • Property increases downside risks to economy
  • September new construction starts up by a fifth

BEIJING: Growth in China’s real estate investment eased in September and home sales fell for the first time since April, as developers dialled back expansion plans amid economic uncertainties and as additional curbs on speculative investment kicked in.
A cooling market could increase the downside risks to the world’s second-largest economy, which faces broader headwinds including an intensifying trade war with the United States.
However, while analysts acknowledge increasing caution in the property market, they say investment levels are still relatively high, suggesting a hard landing remains unlikely.
Growth in real estate investment, which mainly focuses on residential but also includes commercial and office space, rose 8.9 percent in September from a year earlier, compared with a 9.2 percent rise in August, Reuters calculated from National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data out on Friday.
“I think overall, China’s real estate market is still resilient, and the decline in sales is within our expectations,” said Virginia Huang, Managing Director of A&T Services, CBRE Greater China.
“There is no sign that the government has relaxed their control, but it still has many methods and tools to support the market if the economy deteriorates rapidly,” Huang said.
Real estate has been one of the few bright spots in China’s investment landscape, partly due to robust sales in smaller cities where a government clampdown on speculation has been not as aggressive as it is in larger cities.
The market has struggled as authorities continued to keep a tight grip over the sector, ramping up control in hundreds of cities. Transactions fell sharply over the period dubbed “Golden September and Silver October,” traditionally a high season for new home sales.
Property sales by floor area fell 3.6 percent in September from a year earlier, compared with a 2.4 percent gain in August, according to Reuters calculations, the first decline since April. In year-to-date terms, property sales rose 2.9 percent in the first three quarters.
China’s central bank governor Yi Gang said last week he still sees plenty of room for adjustment in interest rates and the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), as downside risks from trade tensions with the United States remain significant.
The government has implemented four RRR cuts this year, releasing hundreds of billions in new liquidity to the market.
China has for several years pushed a deleveraging campaign to reduce financial risks, clamping down on shadow banking and closing many “grey” financing channels for real estate firms.
For many highly leveraged developers, there are already signs of increasing caution as exemplified by a surge in failed land auctions due to tight liquidity and thinning margins.
New construction starts measured by floor area, an indicator of developers’ expansion appetite, rose 20.3 percent in September from a year earlier, compared with a 26.6 percent gain in August, Reuters calculations showed.
That’s against the backdrop of seemingly looser funding conditions for China’s real estate developers, who raised 12.2 trillion yuan ($1.76 trillion) in the first nine months, up 7.8 percent from the same period a year earlier, the NBS said.
The growth rate compared with a 6.9 percent increase in January-August period.
“Many developers will face lots of maturing debt by the end of this year, and there are perceived risks in the economy, so they will be more cautious,” Huang said.
China’s housing ministry is considering putting an end to the pre-sale system that developers use to secure capital quickly, in an effort to crack down on financial risks in the property sector.
China’s home prices held up well in August, defying property curbs. But analysts expect additional regulatory tightening and slowing economic growth will soon take the wind out of the property market’s sails.
The National Bureau of Statistics will release September official home price data on Saturday.