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Two-state solution would be over if Trump recognizes Jerusalem as capital

President Donald Trump has postponed a decision on whether to relocate the US Embassy to Jerusalem and will clarify his position on recognizing the city as Israel’s capital until later this week, according to the White House. But, even as he appears to have bowed to pressure from Arab and European countries, the very notion of considering changing the status of Jerusalem, which includes the occupied Old City and Arab neighborhoods, would mean a psychological, not to mention a profoundly legal, barrier that had stood for more than 50 years has been significantly fractured. 
Palestinian and Arab officials have made it clear that such a decision would not only wreck current peace efforts but would also unleash a new wave of violence and benefit extremists. In addition, it would effectively end Washington’s self-proclaimed role as a mediator — it was never seen as an honest broker — between Israel and the Palestinians. The timing of this latest controversy, coming in the wake of US threats to close the PLO office in Washington, raises questions about the Trump administration’s ability to execute “the ultimate deal,” which reportedly seeks to end the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and normalize relations between Israel and the rest of the Arab world.
Last week, Trump’s senior adviser and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who is leading the White House’s Middle East peace team, delivered remarks on the administration’s plan at the Saban Forum in Washington. He said Trump realizes that, in order to create more stability in the Middle East, “we have to solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict,” adding that the “crises between Israel and the Palestinians are caused by the fact there is no final status agreement, and that’s why we need to solve the big issues including borders, security, refugees and Jerusalem.”
But if Kushner is admitting that the future of Jerusalem is key to reaching a final settlement, then why would Trump predetermine its status even before his peace plan is unveiled? Why would he enrage the Palestinians, not to mention hundreds of millions of Arabs and Muslims, and reward an intransigent Israeli government even before negotiations take place? Even if Trump chooses his words carefully regarding Jerusalem and limits the US recognition to West Jerusalem, that would give Israel additional momentum to continue building settlements in East Jerusalem while bolstering its policy of expanding the borders of Greater Jerusalem by annexing more West Bank lands. Currently the area of what Israel considers its eternal capital makes up 12 percent of the entire West Bank territory.

US president is rumored to be about to make the fate of Jerusalem off limits, but if he did so then no Arab leader would embrace his peace plan.

Osama Al Sharif

If Trump goes ahead and topples one of the pillars of US policy on the final settlement between Israel and the Palestinians by taking the fate of Jerusalem off limits, how could he expect any Arab, not to mention Palestinian, leader to embrace his peace plan? And with Jerusalem no longer a final status issue, from Israeli and US perspectives, what does that say about other major issues such as refugees, borders and a contiguous Palestinian state?
Any change by the US in the legal status of Jerusalem ahead of negotiations will effectively end the two-state solution and no plan, no matter how comprehensive and detailed, will have a chance of success. And, with such a blow, the US administration would be pushing the Palestinians to adopt extreme positions both on the ground and in international forums.
The fate of East Jerusalem has always been considered a red line for Palestinian leaders. The late Yasser Arafat backed out from a deal at the last minute in 2000 primarily because of Jerusalem. And so did his successor, Mahmoud Abbas, when he was offered a peace deal in 2008 by then-Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. Whether both men were right or wrong will be decided by history, but the US and Israel are already on the wrong side of history if they believe a Palestinian leader will ever give up on East Jerusalem.
The danger in any change to Jerusalem’s status goes beyond the future of the city and the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. It weakens moderate US allies in the region and hands extremists much-needed ammunition to radicalize angry followers. How does that help promote stability in the Middle East? 
The irony is that Trump and his aides are not doing Israel a favor either. Such an untimely and unwarranted move would bolster Israel’s own extremists, who are now in control of the country’s most far-right and ultra-nationalist governments. What the White House seems to ignore is that Israel itself is divided between those who want to give nothing to the Palestinians and would like to see their plight resolved at the expense of Jordan and Egypt, and those who still believe in a two-state solution that would give the Palestinians a fair deal and end decades of illegal occupation.
• Osama Al-Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman. Twitter: @plato010