German industrial orders surprise with October boost

German manufacturers of capital and consumer goods both saw increased orders in October, but producer goods makers reported falling demand. (AFP)
Updated 06 December 2017
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German industrial orders surprise with October boost

FRANKFURT: Industrial firms in Germany beat analysts’ expectations by reporting slightly increased orders in October, official data showed Wednesday, suggesting a run of strong growth has further to go before petering out.
New contracts — seen as an indicator of future growth in Europe’s largest economy — added 0.5 percent month-on-month, figures from federal statistics authority Destatis showed, where analysts surveyed by Factset had predicted a slight decrease.
The statisticians also revised the previous month’s growth in orders up slightly, to 1.2 percent.
Both domestic and foreign demand for German goods contributed to the October increase, with 0.4-percent growth in orders at home and 0.5-percent expansion abroad.
But new contracts from Germany’s neighbors in the 19-nation eurozone fell by 1.2 percent, while demand from the rest of the world increased 1.6 percent.
Manufacturers of capital and consumer goods both saw increased orders, but producer goods makers reported falling demand.
“Ordering activity increased for the third month in a row in October, overall a very active development,” the economy ministry in Berlin commented in a statement.
The government economists however noted “below average” large orders for items like aircraft weighing on the results.
A two-month comparison of September and October versus July and August — which the ministry argues is more representative of underlying trends — showed growth in orders of 3.4 percent.
Surveys among German business leaders show confidence at an all-time high, with economic growth powered by domestic consumption, a construction boom and growth in investments, while foreign demand for the nation’s goods remains unslaked.
Combined with those factors, Wednesday’s results mean “the business cycle in industry should remain on a strong upward trend,” the ministry predicted.


Rising oil prices haven’t hurt the US economy so far as economy grows at its fastest rate in nearly four years

Updated 9 min 55 sec ago
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Rising oil prices haven’t hurt the US economy so far as economy grows at its fastest rate in nearly four years

  • US economy grew at its fastest rate in nearly four years during the April-through-June quarter.
  • Oil prices have been up roughly 40 percent in the past year. On Friday, benchmark US crude was trading around $71 a barrel, and the international standard, Brent, was closing in on $80.

DALLAS: The US’s rediscovered prowess in oil production is shaking up old notions about the impact of higher crude prices on the country’s economy.
It has long been conventional wisdom that rising oil prices hurt the economy by forcing consumers to spend more on gasoline and heating their homes, leaving less for other things.
Presumably that kind of run-up would slow the US economy. Instead, the economy grew at its fastest rate in nearly four years during the April-through-June quarter.
Despite this, President Donald Trump appears plainly worried about rising oil prices just a few weeks before midterm elections that will decide which party controls the House and Senate.
“We protect the countries of the Middle East, they would not be safe for very long without us, and yet they continue to push for higher and higher oil prices!” Trump tweeted on Thursday. “We will remember. The OPEC monopoly must get prices down now!“
Members of OPEC, who account for about one-third of global oil supplies, are scheduled to meet this weekend with non-members including Russia.
The gathering is not expected to yield any big decisions — those typically come at major OPEC meetings such as the one set for December. Oil markets, however, were roiled on Friday by a report that attendees were considering a significant increase in production to offset declining output from Iran, where exports have fallen ahead of Trump’s reimposition of sanctions.
OPEC and Russia have capped production since January 2017 to bolster prices. Output fell even below those targets this year, and in June the same countries agreed to boost the oil supply, although they didn’t give numbers.
Oil prices have been up roughly 40 percent in the past year. On Friday, benchmark US crude was trading around $71 a barrel, and the international standard, Brent, was closing in on $80.
The national average price for gasoline stood at $2.85 per gallon, up 10 percent from a year ago, according to auto club AAA. That increase likely would be greater were it not for a slump in gasoline demand that is typical for this time of year, when summer vacations are over.
The US still imports about six million barrels of oil a day on average, but that is down from more than 10 million a decade ago. In the same period, US production has doubled to more than 10 million barrels a day, according to government figures.
“Because the US now is producing so much more than it used to, (the rise in oil prices) is not as big an impact as it would have been 20 years ago or 10 years ago,” said Michael Maher, an energy researcher at Rice University and a former Exxon Mobil economist.
The weakening link between oil and the overall economy was seen — in reverse — just three years ago. Then, plunging oil prices were expected to boost the economy by leaving more money in consumers’ pocket, yet GDP growth slowed at the same time that lower oil prices took hold during 2015.
Other economists caution against minimizing the disruption caused by energy prices.
“Higher oil prices are unambiguously bad for the US economy,” said Philip Verleger, an economist who has studied energy markets. “They force consumers to divert their income from spending on other items to spending on fuels.”
Since energy amounts to only about 3 percent of consumer spending, a cutback in that other 97 percent “causes losses for those who sell autos, restaurants, airlines, resorts and all parts of the economy,” Verleger said.
The federal Energy Information Administration said this month that the US likely reclaimed the title of world’s biggest oil producer earlier this year by surpassing the output of Saudi Arabia in February and Russia over the summer. If the agency’s estimates are correct, it would mark the first time since 1973 that the US has led the oil-pumping pack.