As protests rage in Iran, Trump’s Iran policy faces sanctions test

In this Dec. 30, 2017 photo, by an individual not employed by the Associated Press and obtained by the AP outside Iran, university students attend an anti-government protest inside Tehran University, in Tehran, Iran. (AP)
Updated 03 January 2018
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As protests rage in Iran, Trump’s Iran policy faces sanctions test

WASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump has signaled support for anti-government protests in Iran, but in two weeks he faces a decision on US policy toward the Islamic Republic that suddenly seems riskier than it did a week ago.
The six days of demonstrations in several Iranian cities began over economic conditions, and Trump must decide by mid-January whether to continue waiving US sanctions on Iran’s oil exports under the terms of an international nuclear deal.
If he reimposes sanctions on oil, it could increase the economic pain for Iran’s leaders. But analysts said it could also send the wrong message about US support for Iran’s people in the middle of the boldest challenge to the leadership in a decade.
The sanctions waivers were included in the 2015 nuclear pact with Iran that eased economic pressure on Tehran in exchange for limits on its nuclear program.
Trump has repeatedly criticized the deal and promised to negotiate a better one. Reimposing oil sanctions would essentially kill the agreement.
Reviving sanctions on Iran’s main export would allow Tehran to argue that the United States is ultimately the cause of Iran’s economic problems, said Richard Nephew, who worked on sanctions policy at the White House under President Barack Obama.
“Let’s say Trump was inclined not to renew the waivers. I think that (the protests) make it very hard for him to do that now because now that plays into the regime’s hands in a way that I don’t frankly think the administration is going to want to do,” said Nephew, now at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy.
White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders said on Tuesday that Trump has not made a final decision on whether to waive sanctions. Asked whether the protests had changed Trump’s calculation, she replied: “Not necessarily.”

BLAME THE OUTSIDERS
Ray Takeyh, an Iran expert and senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said Iran’s leaders will blame internal troubles on the United States and other outside powers, no matter what Washington does.
“The regime’s argument that the world is against us is a constant for 38 years,” Takeyh said in a telephone interview. “The optics of waiving sanctions in the midst of all this — it just doesn’t look good.”
Takeyh and three US officials who follow Iran said the protests undercut Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, a relative moderate who took office in 2013 pledging to improve Iran’s economy, more than they threaten the country’s clerical rulers.
Former CIA Director John Brennan, in a Twitter post, said the Trump administration with its condemnation of Iran and the nuclear deal over the last year has squandered an opportunity to bolster reformists in Iran and promote peaceful political change.
“Bluster is neither a strategy nor a mechanism for exercise of US power and influence,” Brennan wrote.
Yet in recent days, Trump and his top aides have charted a more careful course in reacting to the demonstrations, which have led to at least 21 deaths and hundreds of arrests.
Trump in a Tweet on Tuesday called the Tehran government a “brutal and corrupt regime.” But he and other US officials have shied away from suggesting Washington seeks the overthrow of Iran’s Islamic theocracy, calling instead for Iranian authorities to respect protesters’ rights.
State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert on Tuesday urged Iranian security forces to exercise restraint in dealing with protests and called on Tehran to restore access to social media sites that have been restricted.
Nauert suggested the US government could impose sanctions against Iranian officials who repress peaceful protests.
Another US official said a coherent policy response to events in Iran cannot be formulated until Washington has a better understanding of the composition of the protesters, the breadth of the economic and political grievances that are driving them, and what threat they pose to the government.
The United States has had no diplomatic presence in Iran since its 1979 Islamic Revolution, limiting its ability to interpret events.
The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Washington’s main effort now was “trying to get a sense of who is mostly behind this, how large it is and does it have legs.”


Turkey set for new ‘anti-terror’ law after emergency

Updated 55 min 34 sec ago
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Turkey set for new ‘anti-terror’ law after emergency

ISTANBUL: Turkey’s ruling party on Monday submitted to parliament a new “anti-terror” bill that would bolster the powers of the authorities in detaining suspects and imposing public order even after the current two-year state of emergency ends.
The state of emergency, imposed in the wake of the July 2016 failed coup aimed at unseating President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has been extended seven times and seen tens of thousands arrested.
With the government indicating that no new extension will be sought after Erdogan won a new mandate in June 24 presidential elections, the emergency is due to end overnight Wednesday to Thursday.
But state-run Anadolu news agency said that the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) had submitted amendments to existing laws to parliament to deal with the “fight against terror after the state of emergency.”
Turkey considers itself to be simultaneously fighting several groups deemed by Ankara to be terror outfits, including Islamic State (IS) jihadists, the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and the group of US-based preacher Fethullah Gulen blamed for the 2016 putsch bid.
Under the proposed new legislation, authorities will be able to prohibit individuals exiting and entering a defined area for 15 days on security grounds, Anadolu said.
It says a suspect can be held without charge for 48 hours or up to four days in the case of multiple offenses.
But this period can be extended up to twice if there is difficulty in collecting evidence or if the case is deemed to be particularly voluminous.
The head of the AKP’s parliamentary group Bulent Turan said that the 28-article bill had been sent to opposition parties and expressed hope that it would be put to a vote next week.
The AKP fell short of a majority in the 600-seat parliament in the polls but is able to push through legislation with the support of its hard right allies, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).
“The state of emergency is going to end in the next days. But the end of the state of emergency does not mean our fight against terror is going to come to an end,” said Justice Minister Abdulhamit Gul.