This quote, from Shakespeare’s “Hamlet,” sums up the Iranian regime’s current situation. The country has endured earthquakes and was shaken by widespread riots; a fire raged on one of its biggest oil tankers close to China’s coast after a collision; the exchange rate of the rial has deteriorated, and the majority of the US Congress voted to punish Iran.
Even though the street riots have subsided, protests increased through other means.
Demonstrations are not enough to overthrow a regime established on satanic foundations of the Basij paramilitary forces, the Revolutionary Guard Corps, intelligence services, and religious powers. The Iranian regime has censored most internet services, banned many means of communication, and sentenced 5,000 prisoners to death without giving any attention to international public opinion.
However, when a regime gets burdened with popular, international, and economic pressures, it will falter and undergo partial change.
Take the case of China, the dramatic historical events seen in Russia, or the more gradual change in Egypt. There are also examples of governments peacefully collapsing, as seen in eastern Europe, or completely collapsing as with the Libyan regime.
It is not difficult for the regime of the Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist (Wilayat Al-Faqih) to suppress rebellion and fight demonstrations — as it did recently and eight years ago. Yet the Iranian regime suffers several serious illnesses, the first of which is that it has aged after 40 years of absolute power, lacks development, and does not respond to the new generation’s needs.
The regime also suffers from internal splits, among which are conflicts between clerics that have surfaced to threaten its unity. It is now paying for the ambitions of its religious and military leaders, who got it involved in hazardous and costly regional wars. It is impossible for Iran to achieve permanent influence due to regional rejection of its expansion.
Finally, there is Iran’s enmity with great powers, especially the US, under President Donald Trump, which has decided to monitor Tehran’s institutions with the intention of targeting them. The US has started suffocating the Iranian regime technologically, commercially and politically.
When a regime gets burdened with popular, international and economic pressures, it will falter and undergo change.
Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed
Together, these factors are capable of destroying this extremist theocracy, which rejects development, change and coexistence, and insists on waging wars and spreading terrorism.
The recent demonstrations are a very important indicator that the regime has lost what remains of its popularity — even in rural areas, which were once among its greatest supporters. It was previously said that the people of Tehran and the middle class who revolted in 2009 cannot decide the fate of Iran, but the regime’s power in its belt outside the capital.
This regime, founded by the late leader Ruhollah Khomeini, is wearing down and will collapse either gradually or rapidly in the not too distant future.
This is not only because it is the wish of regional and international powers, but because most of the internal powers are now opposing it and uniting against the regime.
Since the state of the Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist is concerned about its image inside and outside Iran, we must not be surprised if we saw it over-extending its military operations, seeking victories abroad to heal its internal wounds.
Iran does not have enough financial resources to fix its economy, which has deteriorated with the widespread rioting — and if it goes too far with its military activities abroad, the situation will worsen.