Chinese cities’ moves to ease residency curbs fuel property demand
Chinese cities’ moves to ease residency curbs fuel property demand
Authorities in the cities said the main aim is to lure talent to make their labor pools more attractive to companies. But the policies are undermining the authorities’ efforts to control property speculation and are artificially propping up prices, critics in the real estate and securities industries said.
The permits, known as hukou, have been used to control internal migration in China for many years. Without a permit, a resident of a city may not be able to get a whole slew of public services, including education and health care, and would sometimes have to live on the margins of society.
Now, cities such as Chengdu — the capital of Sichuan province in southwest China — are reversing the process by handing out hukou to college-degree holders. In Chengdu’s case that is anyone under the age of 45.
Not only that. They are in some cases providing these graduates with cash incentives if they buy an apartment.
For example, any post-doctoral degree-holder who takes up hukou in central China’s Zhengzhou, capital of Henan province, will be handed 100,000 yuan ($15,617) for a first home purchase. For college-degree holders the incentive is 20,000 yuan.
As a result, hundreds of thousands of people have been able to buy properties that were otherwise off limits for them.
Take 27-year-old graduate Peter Li, who faced barriers to buying in Chengdu last year because he was from the northwestern province of Gansu.
Then in July the new policy was introduced, and he bought a three-bedroom apartment in the upscale high-tech zone of the city.
“Getting a hukou through the talent policy was a more convenient way to get around the housing curbs,” said Li, who moved to Chengdu, which has 17 million people, to work as a product manager in 2016.
By mid January — just over five months after the change — more than 120,000 people had been able to get a Chengdu hukou through the new policy, said Chengdu’s official Talent Work Leadership office.
And Chengdu’s resale market soared. The number of sales registered with the housing bureau, which could lag real-time transactions by up to two months, have climbed to 8,798 in December, up 40 percent from July’s 6,252, data from Chengdu property net showed. The local real estate portal said it tracks data published daily by the Chengdu housing bureau.
Average prices in some prime locations had risen to about 16,000 yuan ($2,498) per square meter in December, up about 30 percent from their levels in July, according to data from property realtors, including Fang.com.
At least 10 other provincial capitals have also loosened their hukou rules, and some have offered incentives.
In such cities the changes have effectively weakened existing curbs brought in over the past year to tame speculation. That has prevented price falls and in some cases helped to trigger significant price increases, according to property agents and analysts.
“It’s a disguised way for the government to relax the curbs,” said a Chengdu-based agent at Lianjia, a large Chinese real estate agency, declining to be named as she was not authorized to speak to the media.
Traditionally, China’s four top-tier cities, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, have been the most sought-after destinations for young and educated migrants seeking higher pay and better opportunities.
By contrast, less developed tier-2 provincial capitals have mainly been a magnet for people from smaller cities within the province.
While hefty living costs, soaring property prices and pollution have seen some reverse in flow from top-tier cities to provincial capitals, the wages gap is a big turn-off.
Chengdu’s average white-collar salaries in the third quarter last year came in at 6,910 yuan ($1,079) per month, about 43 percent less than the figure in Beijing, according to Zhaopin.com, one of China’s biggest recruitment portals.
Six property agencies in Chengdu surveyed by Reuters estimated between 50 percent to 70 percent of their sales have been made off newly minted Chengdu hukou holders in recent months.
The impact is gradually being felt at the national level. Official data on Thursday showed China’s new home prices accelerated to a five-month high in December, with property prices in tier-2 cities recording the strongest price growth.
The Chengdu government said it did not set the bar excessively low for outsiders, stressing the importance of attracting talent.
The city will “continue to satisfy the needs of first-time home buyers and their rigid demand, and those who want to improve their housing conditions, while cracking down on speculation,” the government said.
Home buyers are still subject to existing tightening measures such as having to hold on to their properties for at least three years before selling.
China’s State Council Information Office (SCIO), which doubles as the Communist Party’s communications arm, said the moves undertaken by the tier-2 cities would only increase the size of qualified home buyers “by a small scale.”
Such demand — seen as the opposite of speculative forces — is in line with the view from China’s top leaders that “homes are meant for living, not for speculation,” it said.
SCIO applauded the cities’ “effectiveness and timeliness” in expanding their respective talent pools as the country strives for more balanced and higher quality growth, especially in its less prosperous hinterland.
Still, there is concern that the strategy will end up being counterproductive by fueling price rises, which in turn could make apartments too expensive for many people born and bred in these cities, building resentment against the city’s government and the newcomers allowed hukou.
Saudi energy minister compares electric vehicle ‘hype’ to peak oil misconceptions
- Khalid Al-Falih on Monday questioned what he described as the “hype” of the electric vehicle market
- Compared it to past misconceptions around the theory of peak oil
LONDON: Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih on Monday questioned what he described as the “hype” of the electric vehicle market and compared it to past misconceptions around the theory of peak oil.
He told the CERAWeek energy gathering by IHS Markit in New Delhi that petrol and diesel engines would co-exist with emerging electric and hydrogen fuel cell technologies for much longer than widely expected.
Miscalculations around the pace of electrification could create “serious” risks around global energy security, he said.
“Conventional vehicles today, despite all the hype, represent 99.8 percent of the global vehicle fleet. That means electric vehicles with 0.2 percent of the fleet, only substitute about 30,000 barrels per day of oil equivalent of a total global oil demand of about 100 million barrels.
“Even if those numbers increase by a factor of 100 over the next couple of decades, they would still remain negligible in the global energy mix.”
He said: “History tells us that orderly energy transformations are a complex phenomenon involving generational time frames as opposed to quick switches that could lead to costly setbacks.”
In another broadside aimed at electric vehicles, the Saudi energy minister highlighted past misconceptions about global energy demand growth — and specifically the notion of “peak oil.”
“I remember thought leaders within the industry telling us that oil demand will peak at 95 million barrels per day. Had we listened to them and not invested . . . imagine the tight spot we would be in today.”
“Let’s also remember that in many parts of the world, roughly three fourths of the electricity, which would also power electric vehicles, is currently generated by coal, including here in India. So you could think of any electric vehicle running in the streets of Delhi as essentially being a coal-powered automobile.”
“When it comes to renewables, the fundamental challenge of battery storage remains unresolved — a factor that is essential to the intermittency issue impacting wind and solar power. Therefore the more realistic narrative and assessment is that electric vehicles and renewables will continue to make technological and economic progress and achieve greater market penetration — but at a relatively gradual rate and as a result, conventional energy will be with us for a long, long time to come.”