Japan announces longest growth streak since 1980s boom
Japan announces longest growth streak since 1980s boom
The long run of growth is an encouraging sign for the Bank of Japan, hinting that the economy may at last be building up momentum to lift consumer prices toward its 2 percent inflation target.
The economy expanded at a 0.5 percent annualized rate in October-December, less than the median estimate for annualized growth of 0.9 percent, Cabinet Office data showed on Wednesday. That followed a revised 2.2 percent annualized increase in July-September.
Japan’s economy grew a real 1.6 percent in calendar 2017, the fastest increase since a 2 percent expansion in 2013.
An extended run of growth could lead to some speculation that the Bank of Japan can afford to scale back quantitative easing, but economists say it is unlikely as long as the yen is rising and Japan’s consumer prices remain subdued.
Financial markets are already on edge from worries that central banks in the US and Europe will raise interest rates faster than expected to stay ahead of inflation, but the BOJ is expected to lag well behind those peers.
“Economic fundamentals look good and growth this year is likely to be above the economy’s potential,” said Hiroaki Muto, economist at Tokai Tokyo Research Center.
“However, I don’t see any talk of an exit for the BOJ when the yen is rising like this. When financial markets are volatile this hurts Japan’s animal spirits,” he said, referring to investor and consumer confidence.
The dollar slid to a 15-month low against the yen on Wednesday, as investors remained on edge ahead of US inflation numbers later in the day, underscoring fragile sentiment following a recent shakeout in global equity markets.
A rising yen, which tends to push down Japan’s import prices and depress exporters’ earnings, took the gloss off an otherwise respectable report on the world’s third-largest economy.
The GDP data comes after news that Abe’s government has decided to nominate Haruhiko Kuroda for a rare second term as Bank of Japan governor, a sign his ultra-loose monetary policy will remain in place. Investors, however, still have questions about who the deputy governors will be and what policies they are likely to favor.
Japan’s economy has now posted the longest continuous expansion since a 12-quarter stretch of growth between April-June 1986 and January-March 1989 around the height of Japan’s notorious economic bubble.
“The headline figures are somewhat weaker than expected, but that’s not something to worry too much about,” said Yoshiki Shinke, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.
“Capital expenditure and consumption are picking up. Exports are also strong. Other recent data are also strong. It’s safe to say the economy is in pretty good shape.”
Compared with the previous quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) grew 0.1 percent, less than the median estimate of 0.2 percent growth and following a 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter expansion in July-September, Cabinet Office data showed on Wednesday.
A Cabinet Office official said increased spending on mobile phones, cars, and dining out drove gains in private consumption, which accounts for about two-thirds of GDP.
To be sure, some economists are cautious about domestic demand because they believe any further declines in global stocks could hurt sentiment and returns on investors’ portfolios.
Real wages fell 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter, the first decline in three quarters, which is another risk to domestic demand, although the tightest labor market in about 40 years may give unions more bargaining power in impending wage talks.
“I’m a little worried about sluggish wage growth,” said Daiju Aoki, regional chief investment officer at UBS Securities.
“I’m also worried about a negative wealth effect from a falling stock market.”
Capital expenditure rose 0.7 percent in October-December from the previous quarter, less than the median estimate for a 1.1 percent increase but up for the fifth straight quarter and a sign of sustainable gains in business investment.
Overseas demand subtracted fractionally from GDP in October-December. Exports rose 2.4 percent, but this gain was offset by a 2.9 percent jump in imports thanks to robust domestic demand.
Since taking office in late 2012, Abe has enacted reforms to draw more women and elderly people into the workforce, raise wages for part-time workers, liberalize the labor market, and encourage business investment.
“Domestic demand is strong enough that it can stand on its own two feet, so you can say Abenomics has matured,” said Hiroshi Miyazaki, senior economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.
“Financial market moves pose risks, but I still expect consumption and business investment to drive future growth.”
India train disaster toll rises amid anger over safety
- Many bodies were badly dismembered and police said identification of the victims could take several days
- The funerals of some victims were held Saturday and the accident brought widespread demands for tough action by authorities
AMRITSAR, India: Around 60 people are now known to have died when a train plowed into a crowd of revellers watching a firework display in India, officials said Saturday.
Dozens more were hurt in the accident, some of them seriously, and overwhelmed local hospitals ran out of space for the dead, forcing them to leave some bodies outside.
The disaster, near Amritsar in the north of the country on Friday, led to new demands for safety reforms to India’s accident-plagued railway system, which records thousands of deaths each year.
Reports said the train hit scores of people who had gathered on tracks to watch the burning of a firework-packed effigy of the demon king Ravana for a Hindu festival.
Police said victims did not hear the Jalandhar-Amritsar express arriving because the noise was drowned out by firecrackers.
Another train had narrowly missed the crowds two minutes earlier, officials said.
Many bodies were badly dismembered and police said identification of the victims could take several days, officials said.
Amritsar’s main hospital did not have enough space in its morgue, and some corpses were laid outside.
Hardeep Singh, chief medical officer for Amritsar, told AFP 59 deaths had been confirmed and 90 people had been injured.
Singh said only 25 bodies had been identified so far.
Media reports said there were 61 dead.
The funerals of some victims were held Saturday and the accident brought widespread demands for tough action by authorities.
Punjab state governor V.P. Singh Badnore said: “Those who need to be punished will be punished and accountability will be fixed.”
A 2012 government report described the loss of 15,000 passengers to rail accidents every year in India as a “massacre.” The government has pledged $137 billion over five years to modernize the crumbling network.
Railway minister Piyush Goyal returned early from a trip to the United States to go to Amritsar on Saturday. Punjab chief minister Amarinder Singh called off a trip to Israel to go to the disaster scene.