US President Trump’s tariffs set to dominate final day of NAFTA talks

Above, group of workers, disguised as US President Donald Trump and Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto, protest against Trump’s economic policies and the North American Free Trade Agreement in Mexico City. (AFP)
Updated 05 March 2018
0

US President Trump’s tariffs set to dominate final day of NAFTA talks

MEXICO CITY: Ministers from the US, Canada and Mexico meet on Monday to wrap up the latest round of NAFTA talks under the shadow of US President Donald Trump’s proposed steep tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.
Trump is expected to finalize the tariffs — 25 percent on steel and 10 percent on aluminum — later in the week, posing a tough challenge for US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Canada’s Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland and Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo.
The Mexican and Canadian ministers are likely to press Trump’s trade envoy on whether their countries will be excluded from the blanket tariffs.
“I expect it to be front and center” at the meeting, said Kevin Brady, the Republican chairman of the US House of Representatives Ways and Means Committee, which oversees US trade policy.
Officials have so far been evasive when asked how the three nations can continue trying to update the North American Free Trade Agreement at a time when the US president is about to take a highly protectionist measure.
Brady led a delegation of US lawmakers to Mexico City to press officials on the need to conclude the talks, which have unnerved financial markets worried about the possibility that the North American supply chain could be disrupted.
Speaking on Sunday, Brady said all fairly-traded steel should be excluded from the tariffs. US stocks fell sharply on Thursday on fears of a looming trade war after Trump, a Republican, announced the planned tariffs.
The NAFTA talks are going slowly and the Mexico City round — the seventh of eight planned sets of negotiations — produced little of substance.
Eight days of talks in Mexico’s capital failed to make headway on new rules governing the content of products made in North America, which has been one of the most contentious issues in the talks.
The US negotiator charged with overseeing the so-called rules of origin unexpectedly returned to Washington for consultations early on and did not return. Talks on the matter will be rescheduled before the expected next proper NAFTA round in Washington in early April.
Still, Brady said he was impressed with the progress made during the week, emphasizing it was important to finish negotiating a modern, pro-growth agreement that would boost manufacturing and jobs.
US Representative Roger Marshall, a Republican who traveled with Brady to Mexico, said meetings during the week had closed chapters related to chemicals, communications and anti-corruption efforts.
“I am very optimistic,” Marshall told reporters after briefings from US trade officials.
Canada’s chief negotiator Steve Verheul said: “For the week we do have successes we can point (to), but we still have got a bit more to do.”
Dave Solverson, a former president of the Canadian Cattlemen’s Association, said the NAFTA region could not afford a trade war, especially when attempting to renegotiate the 24-year-old trade deal.


Davos organizer WEF warns of growing risk of cyberattacks in Gulf

Updated 16 January 2019
0

Davos organizer WEF warns of growing risk of cyberattacks in Gulf

  • Critical infrastructure such as power centers and water plants at particular risk, says expert
  • Report finds that unemployment is a major concern in Bahrain, Egypt, Morocco, Oman and Tunisia

LONDON: The World Economic Forum (WEF) has warned of the growing possibility of cyberattacks in the Gulf — with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar particularly vulnerable.

Cyberattacks were ranked as the second most important risk — after an “energy shock” — in the three Gulf states, according to the WEF’s flagship Global Risks Report 2019.

The report was released ahead of the WEF’s annual forum in Davos, Switzerland, which starts on Tuesday.

In an interview with Arab News, John Drzik, president of global risk and digital at professional services firm Marsh & McLennan said: “The risk of cyberattacks on critical infrastructure such as power centers and water plants is moving up the agenda in the Middle East, and in the Gulf in particular.”

Drzik was speaking on the sidelines of a London summit where WEF unveiled the report, which was compiled in partnership with Marsh and Zurich Insurance.

“Cyberattacks are a growing concern as the regional economy becomes more sophisticated,” he said.

“Critical infrastructure means centers where disablement could affect an entire society — for instance an attack on an electric grid.”

Countries needed to “upgrade to reflect the change in the cyber risk environment,” he added.

The WEF report incorporated the results of a survey taken from about 1,000 experts and decision makers.

The top three risks for the Middle East and Africa as a whole were found to be an energy price shock, unemployment or underemployment, and terrorist attacks.

Worries about an oil price shock were said to be particularly pronounced in countries where government spending was rising, said WEF. This group includes Saudi Arabia, which the IMF estimated in May 2018 had seen its fiscal breakeven price for oil — that is, the price required to balance the national budget — rise to $88 a barrel, 26 percent above the IMF’s October 2017 estimate, and also higher than the country’s medium-term oil-price target of $70–$80.

But that disclosure needed to be balanced with the fact that risk of “fiscal crises” dropped sharply in the WEF survey rankings, from first position last year to fifth in 2018.

The report said: “Oil prices increased substantially between our 2017 and 2018 surveys, from around $50 to $75. This represents a significant fillip for the fiscal position of the region’s oil producers, with the IMF estimating that each $10 increase in oil prices should feed through to an improvement on the fiscal balance of 3 percentage points of GDP.”

At national level, this risk of “unemployment and underemployment” ranked highly in Bahrain, Egypt, Morocco, Oman and Tunisia.
“Unemployment is a pressing issue in the region, particularly for the rapidly expanding young population: Youth unemployment averages around 25 percent and is close to 50 percent in Oman,” said the report.

Other countries attaching high prominence to domestic and regional fractures in the survey were Tunisia, with “profound
social instability” ranked first, and Algeria, where respondents ranked “failure of regional and global governance” first.

Looking at the global picture, WEF warned that weakened international co-operation was damaging the collective will to confront key issues such as climate change and environmental degradation.