Pakistan rupee set to come under more pressure

Though government denies it, analysts believe national currency will be further devalued. (AFP)
Updated 27 May 2018
0

Pakistan rupee set to come under more pressure

  • Exchange companies are required to maintain record of all buy and sell transactions equivalent to $500
  • Dollar supply declines from $3m per day to only $1m as buyer and seller decline to share identification data

KARACHI: The Pakistan rupee could face further pressure this week, in the midst of the country’s chronic foreign currency shortage and speculation of a third currency devaluation, analysts said.
The currency, which has been exposed to rising external financing requirements and lower remittances, touched 119.05 rupees to the dollar on Friday, closing at 118.70 rupees to the dollar on Saturday in the open market.
“People think that in coming days the rupee would be further under pressure due to increasing demand for the dollar so they start buying anticipating a dollar shortage,” Zeeshan Afzal, executive director-research at Insight Securities, told Arab News.
“Perception and real need (demand) drives the currency exchange market in both ways,” he said.
The rupee has been impacted by Pakistan’s historic high current account deficit of $14 billion that has widened because of increasing imports, insufficient exports and workers’ remittances.
“In Ramadan, the inflow of remittances has declined, demand for dollar from those going for Umrah has increased,” Muzamil Aslam, senior economist and CEO of EFG-Hermes Pakistan told Arab News.
Ratings agency Moody’s Investors Service last week forecast that the rupee could weaken to 125 to the dollar by June of next year.
The country’s central bank has already let the currency decline by 10 percent against the dollar in the past six months via devaluations in December and March.
Demand for dollars usually comes from general public, investors and importers, said Afzal.
“As our imports are more than our exports and other foreign exchange inflows, the pressure on US dollar (reserves) keeps mounting,” he said.

 

Pakistan is also taking steps against money laundering as part of its international commitment to combat terror financing, ahead of a meeting of the Financial Action Task Force meeting in June, when Pakistan will be greylisted.
As part of the measures, State Bank of Pakistan recently directed currency exchange companies to maintain records of identification documents of customers for all foreign currency transactions worth $500 or more, in line with similar thresholds in other international jurisdictions.
“The move of State Bank of Pakistan is aimed at documenting the transactions in order to discourage terror financing,” said Afzal, who added that such requirements had little impact on exchange rates.
But foreign exchange dealers have claimed that lowering the transaction threshold for identification requirements from $2,500 to $500 has negatively impacted business.
“Our daily surplus supply of dollar was around $3 million per day until a week ago, when the central bank’s measures were not enforced,”,Malik Bostan, president of the Forex Association of Pakistan, told Arab News.
“Now the supply is now down to only $1 million per day as currency exchange business has shifted to unregistered dealers.”
“There are around 30,000 unlicensed currency dealers all over Pakistan,” he claimed, adding that the majority of buyers and sellers do not want to share their identification and choose to go to unregistered dealers.
“We have asked the central bank to come up with necessary laws to protect registered currency dealers,” Bostan said. 
“Despite facing adverse business situation we have assured our support to central bank to take whatever steps are needed to get the Pakistan off the grey list of FATF.”
He said that the pressure on the dollar was unusual in the month of Ramadan when dollar inflows typically rise.

FASTFACTS

Pakistan's current account deficit has reached a historic high of about $14 billion.


Relief for UK buyers as consumer prices drop more than expected

Updated 17 October 2018
0

Relief for UK buyers as consumer prices drop more than expected

  • Consumer prices rose at an annual rate of 2.4 percent, more than reversing August’s jump to a six-month high of 2.7 percent
  • The figures are likely to reassure Bank of England officials

LONDON: British inflation fell more than expected in September to a three-month low, offering some relief to consumers who have been squeezed financially since the Brexit vote.
Consumer prices rose at an annual rate of 2.4 percent, more than reversing August’s jump to a six-month high of 2.7 percent, the Office for National Statistics said.
That was well below the consensus forecast of 2.6 percent in a Reuters poll of economists.
Sterling fell against the dollar and euro while British government bond prices rose.
The figures are likely to reassure Bank of England officials who forecast in August that inflation would average around 2.5 percent over the July-September quarter.
“Coupled with the gradual up-tick in wages, the slowing rise in prices will deliver a boost to consumers’ real take-home pay packets, which will also be welcome news for retailers,” said Tej Parikh, senior economist at the Institute of Directors.
“The Bank of England will be unruffled by this week’s data releases, and remains unlikely to budge on interest rates as it continues to monitor the impact of Brexit developments.” The BoE expects it will need to raise interest rates gradually in response to rising wages, assuming Britain manages to strike a deal with the European Union to smooth its exit from the bloc.
On Tuesday, the ONS said the basic wages of workers had risen at their fastest pace in nearly a decade over the summer months.
But wage growth of 3.1 percent remains meagre by historical standards when adjusted for inflation.
The BoE expects inflation to drift down but stay just above its 2 percent target in two years’ time as it gradually raises borrowing costs.
Consumer price inflation hit a five-year high of 3.1 percent in November, when the inflationary effect of the pound’s tumble after the Brexit vote in June 2016 reached its peak.
The ONS said food prices, particularly of meat and chocolate, represented the biggest drag on September’s inflation rate.
Ferry prices dropped from a “surprisingly high” summer peak.
Still, there could be more short-term pressure in the pipeline for consumer prices.
For manufacturers, the cost of raw materials — many of them imported — was 10.3 percent higher than in September 2017, up from a revised 9.4 percent in August.
That was a bigger jump than any economist had forecast in the Reuters poll, which anticipated a rise of 9.2 percent.
Manufacturers increased the prices they charged by 3.1 percent compared with 2.9 percent in August, again stronger than all forecasts in the poll, which had pointed to a 2.9 percent increase.
The ONS said house prices in August rose by an annual 3.2 percent across the UK as a whole, the smallest rise since August 2013 and compared with a 3.4 percent increase in July.
Prices in London alone slipped 0.2 percent.