Germany’s GDP growth outlook hit by euro crisis, US-EU trade conflict

Ifo said the economic upswing in Germany should continue but at a slower pace, echoing an assessment by the Bundesbank last week. (Reuters)
Updated 19 June 2018

Germany’s GDP growth outlook hit by euro crisis, US-EU trade conflict

ERLIN: Germany’s Ifo institute on Tuesday cut its forecasts for growth in Europe’s biggest economy this year and next, citing a weak start to the year and increased global risks.
Ifo said it expected the German economy to grow by 1.8 percent this year and in 2019, a big revision downwards from previous forecasts of 2.6 percent and 2.1 percent respectively.
“The economy developed significantly more weakly than anticipated in the first few months of the year,” Ifo economist Timo Wollmershaeuser said. “The global economic risks have risen significantly,” he added.
Ifo said the economic upswing in Germany should continue but at a slower pace, echoing an assessment by the Bundesbank last week.
In addition to weak industrial activity and exports in the first four months of the year, a trade dispute between the United States and the European Union is clouding the outlook for the German economy. US President Donald Trump is threatening to impose hefty tariffs on car imports from European allies in addition to unilateral metals duties.
The Bundesbank said on Monday that German growth should rebound in the second quarter thanks to higher state spending, a humming construction sector and strong private consumption.
But it warned that trade and political concerns have made the outlook for the economy more uncertain and revised down its own growth projections.
A new Italian coalition government that comprises anti-establishment parties with a brief to shake up EU institutions has also unnerved German companies.
“The downside risks for the German economy have significantly risen,” said Ifo’s Wollmershaeuser. “Germany’s economic advantages are far outweighed by two risks — euro crisis 2.0 through Italy and a trade war.”
As well as the US-EU trade dispute, German business leaders are worried that a trade confrontation between the United States and China could harm exporters that rely on the world’s two largest economies for growth.
China has raised tariffs on $50 billion in US goods, responding to similar measures by Trump, who has also threatened a 10-percent tariff on $200 billion of Chinese goods.
“The likelihood that we have a trade war that also affects Germany is higher now than it was in spring,” said Wollmershaeuser.


Saudi mall operator Arabian Centres bucks retail malaise as profits surge

Updated 21 August 2019

Saudi mall operator Arabian Centres bucks retail malaise as profits surge

  • Mall operator defies online shopping pressure by lowering discounts to tenants, boosting occupancy and rental revenues

LONDON: Arabian Centres, the Saudi mall operator which went public in May, said first-quarter consolidated net profit almost trebled to SR227 million ($60.53 million) as occupancy edged higher across its shopping centers. Revenues increased by about 2.5 percent over the year to SR572.5 million.

The results helped to propel the group’s shares 3 percent higher on Tuesday.

The group said that it boosted performance by offering lower discounts to its tenants which helped to drive rental revenues. Like-for-like occupancy across all malls increased  to 93.2 percent from 92.4 percent in the year earlier period. Finance costs fell by about 65 percent from a year earlier to SR73.9 million.

FASTFACT

 

27 - Arabian Centres plans to expand its mall portfolio to 27 within four years.

Retailers across the Middle East are coming under increased pressure as more consumers shop online, while at the same time, tourists are spending less in dollar-pegged economies because their purchasing power has been cut by the strength of the greenback. Still, in Saudi Arabia, the under-served retail market is expected to receive a boost from rising investment in the entertainment sector, especially new cinemas.

“Faced with the rising challenge of online shopping, the brick-and-mortar retail segment has sought to diversify its offering to secure its customer base, providing an increased range of leisure and entertainment facilities,” said Oxford Business Group, in a report analyzing emerging trends in the Saudi retail sector.

“The reintroduction of cinemas to the Kingdom in April last year ... is expected to increase retail footfall,” it said.

Arabian Centres, majority-owned by Fawaz Alhokair Group, listed its shares on the Tadawul stock exchange in May — the first to do so in the Kingdom under Rule 144a, allowing the sale of securities, mainly to qualified institutional buyers in the US.

The group aims to expand to 27 malls within four years.