Oil rises on million barrels OPEC pledge

UAE’s Oil Minister OPEC President Suhail Mohamed Al Mazrouei and OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo address a news conference after an OPEC meeting in Vienna, Austria, June 22, 2018. (Reuters)
Updated 22 June 2018
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Oil rises on million barrels OPEC pledge

  • Oil prices rose almost 3 percent on Friday as OPEC agreed a modest increase in output to compensate for losses in production at a time of rising global demand.
  • The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed on Friday to boost output from July.

LONDON: Oil prices jumped yesterday afternoon as OPEC announced a more modest production increase than forecast.

The group said yesterday that it and its allies would from next month bring production back in line with levels originally agreed in late 2016, equivalent to an increase of around 1 million barrels.

But analysts have warned that the reaffirmed commitment — an effective production increase given that a number of producers have cut output more than agreed— would not be enough to lower prices, given further supply disruptions on the horizon.

OPEC Conference President and UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrouei told reporters in Vienna that the target was a group-level commitment, and that individual production quotas for member states had not been set.

Adherence to the decision would be “challenging for those countries that are struggling with keeping their level of production,” he said, but he noted that other countries could pick up any shortfall.

“We will deal with it collectively,” he said, insisting that the group would not not exceed production agreements.

“It is difficult already to achieve that 100 percent,” he added. “No one intends to do anything beyond that.”

But Thomas Pugh, a commodities analyst with Capital Economics, said while OPEC currently had little spare capacity, production rebounds by key states might tempt members to over-produce.

“OPEC has found it difficult to police group quotas in the past so today’s decision runs the risk of production rising above its target,” he said.

“If production starts to rebound in Venezuela or Angola then the group may quickly exceed its quota.”

The lack of detail over individual commitments followed disagreements between Iran and Saudi Arabia about the level of increases ahead of the meeting, according to energy expert Cornelia Meyer.

“The ‘collective agreement’ to return to 100 percent compliance was in the end sufficiently fuzzy for them to get an agreement,” she told Arab News.

“But going forward the market is going to want to see more detail as to how it will be implemented — and by whom — before it impacts prices.”

Brent crude futures rose around 3 percent on the news, briefly exceeding $75 per barrel in early afternoon trading, with prices forecast to rise further in the short-term.

“The effective increase in output can easily be absorbed by the market and is not going to tip the oil balance into negative territory,” Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodities strategy at BNP Paribas, told Reuters.

“I suspect the market will continue to grind higher, notably in view of oil inventories in the OECD being below the famous five-year average target and the ever present risk of supply outages in Venezuela and Libya.

The agreement is likely to do little to mollify those looking for higher output increases to ease pressure on prices, not least US President Donald Trump.

“Hope OPEC will increase output substantially. Need to keep prices down!” Trump tweeted yesterday, following the announcement of the agreement.

But Meyer noted that shifting macroeconomic trends — notably the prospect of growing trade wars between the US and trading partners like China and the EU — may see rising demand for oil slow or go into reverse.

“We’re out of the goldilocks scenario now,” she said.

“Both Saudi Arabia and Russia have talked up how much the market is short. From now on they may well have to talk it down in terms of that gap between supply and demand.”


Gulf defense spending ‘to top $110bn by 2023’

Updated 15 February 2019
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Gulf defense spending ‘to top $110bn by 2023’

  • Saudi Arabia and UAE initiatives ‘driving forward industrial defense capabilities’
  • Budgets are increasing as countries pursue modernization of equipment and expansion of their current capabilities

LONDON: Defense spending by Gulf Arab states is expected to rise to more than $110 billion by 2023, driven partly by localized military initiatives by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, a report has found.

Budgets are increasing as countries pursue the modernization of equipment and expansion of their current capabilities, according to a report by analytics firm Jane’s by IHS Markit.

Military expenditure in the Gulf will increase from $82.33 billion in 2013 to an estimated $103.01 billion in 2019, and is forecast to continue trending upward to $110.86 billion in 2023.

“Falling energy revenues between 2014 and 2016 led to some major procurement projects being delayed as governments reigned in budget deficits,” said Charles Forrester, senior defense industry analyst at Jane’s.

“However, defense was generally protected from the worst of the spending cuts due to regional security concerns and budgets are now growing again.”

Major deals in the region have included Eurofighter Typhoon purchases by countries including Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

Saudi Arabia is also looking to “localize” 50 percent of total government military spending in the Kingdom by 2030, and in 2017 announced the launch of the state-owned military industrial company Saudi Arabia Military Industries.

Forrester said such moves will boost the ability for Gulf countries to start exporting, rather than purely importing defense equipment.

“Within the defense sector, the establishment of Saudi Arabia Military Industries (SAMI) in 2017 and consolidation of the UAE’s defense industrial base through the creation of Emirates Defense Industries Company (EDIC) in 2014 have helped consolidate and drive forward industrial defense capabilities,” he said.

“This has happened as the countries focus on improving the quality of the defense technological work packages they undertake through offset, as well as increasing their ability to begin exporting defense equipment.”

Regional countries are also considering the use of “disruptive technologies” such as artificial intelligence in defense, Forrester said.

Meanwhile, it emerged on Friday that worldwide outlays on weapons and defense rose 1.8 percent to more than $1.67 trillion in 2018.

The US was responsible for almost half that increase, according to “The Military Balance” report released at the Munich Security Conference and quoted by Reuters.

Western powers were concerned about Russia’s upgrades of air bases and air defense systems in Crimea, the report said, but added that “China perhaps represents even more of a challenge, as it introduces yet more advanced military systems and is engaged in a strategy to improve its forces’ ability to operate at distance from the homeland.”