Oil rises on million barrels OPEC pledge

UAE’s Oil Minister OPEC President Suhail Mohamed Al Mazrouei and OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo address a news conference after an OPEC meeting in Vienna, Austria, June 22, 2018. (Reuters)
Updated 22 June 2018
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Oil rises on million barrels OPEC pledge

  • Oil prices rose almost 3 percent on Friday as OPEC agreed a modest increase in output to compensate for losses in production at a time of rising global demand.
  • The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed on Friday to boost output from July.

LONDON: Oil prices jumped yesterday afternoon as OPEC announced a more modest production increase than forecast.

The group said yesterday that it and its allies would from next month bring production back in line with levels originally agreed in late 2016, equivalent to an increase of around 1 million barrels.

But analysts have warned that the reaffirmed commitment — an effective production increase given that a number of producers have cut output more than agreed— would not be enough to lower prices, given further supply disruptions on the horizon.

OPEC Conference President and UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrouei told reporters in Vienna that the target was a group-level commitment, and that individual production quotas for member states had not been set.

Adherence to the decision would be “challenging for those countries that are struggling with keeping their level of production,” he said, but he noted that other countries could pick up any shortfall.

“We will deal with it collectively,” he said, insisting that the group would not not exceed production agreements.

“It is difficult already to achieve that 100 percent,” he added. “No one intends to do anything beyond that.”

But Thomas Pugh, a commodities analyst with Capital Economics, said while OPEC currently had little spare capacity, production rebounds by key states might tempt members to over-produce.

“OPEC has found it difficult to police group quotas in the past so today’s decision runs the risk of production rising above its target,” he said.

“If production starts to rebound in Venezuela or Angola then the group may quickly exceed its quota.”

The lack of detail over individual commitments followed disagreements between Iran and Saudi Arabia about the level of increases ahead of the meeting, according to energy expert Cornelia Meyer.

“The ‘collective agreement’ to return to 100 percent compliance was in the end sufficiently fuzzy for them to get an agreement,” she told Arab News.

“But going forward the market is going to want to see more detail as to how it will be implemented — and by whom — before it impacts prices.”

Brent crude futures rose around 3 percent on the news, briefly exceeding $75 per barrel in early afternoon trading, with prices forecast to rise further in the short-term.

“The effective increase in output can easily be absorbed by the market and is not going to tip the oil balance into negative territory,” Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodities strategy at BNP Paribas, told Reuters.

“I suspect the market will continue to grind higher, notably in view of oil inventories in the OECD being below the famous five-year average target and the ever present risk of supply outages in Venezuela and Libya.

The agreement is likely to do little to mollify those looking for higher output increases to ease pressure on prices, not least US President Donald Trump.

“Hope OPEC will increase output substantially. Need to keep prices down!” Trump tweeted yesterday, following the announcement of the agreement.

But Meyer noted that shifting macroeconomic trends — notably the prospect of growing trade wars between the US and trading partners like China and the EU — may see rising demand for oil slow or go into reverse.

“We’re out of the goldilocks scenario now,” she said.

“Both Saudi Arabia and Russia have talked up how much the market is short. From now on they may well have to talk it down in terms of that gap between supply and demand.”


Oil markets jittery over lower demand forecasts

Updated 18 November 2018
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Oil markets jittery over lower demand forecasts

RIYADH: Oil prices continued to nosedive last week over demand concerns amid an outlook of a slowing global economy. The strong US dollar weighed on both oil prices and the global demand outlook. Currencies weakened against the dollar, eroding their purchasing power.
Brent was down to $66.76 per barrel and WTI dropped to $56.46 per barrel by Friday. The former came close to its one-year low as both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC released monthly reports that articulated a darkening demand outlook in the short term. This increased fears of an oil demand slowdown. Market fundamentals also suggest that price volatility is likely to remain high in the near-term, although the oil market reached a balance in early October.
OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) arrived with bearish sentiments, revising downward its oil-demand forecast for this year and next, for the fourth month in a row. It forecast that global oil demand will rise by 1.29 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2019, 70,000 less than what OPEC expected last month. The MOMR also forecast increasing non-OPEC supply growth for 2019, with higher volumes outpacing the annual growth in world oil demand, leading to an excess in supply. The report was welcomed with open arms by the IEA, which had been at least in part responsible for driving sentiment toward a bear market. Surprisingly, OPEC warned that oil demand is falling faster than expected. Necessary action is a must.
Saudi Arabia is not sitting idly by while oil markets look as if they are heading toward instability. Markets were expecting severe US sanctions on Iran, which could have resulted in supply shortages once Iran’s crude exports went to zero. The unexpected introduction of waivers to allow eight countries to continue importing Iranian oil, was however an eye-opener. Now, as the world’s only swing producer, Saudi Arabia will have to take other measures to balance oil markets and drain excess oil from global stockpiles.
Despite what some analysts are claiming, there is currently no strategy to send less oil to the US to help reduce US stockpiles. Yes, some have claimed that Saudi crude shipments to the US are at about 600,000 barrels per day this month, which is a little more than half of what was being shipped in the summer months. But the reasons for this are related to seasonally low demand, the surge in US inventories and refineries heading into their winter maintenance season. Remember that November crude oil shipments were allocated to the US refiners last month before the US waivers on the Iranian sanctions were revealed. Also, keep in mind that Saudi Arabia owns the largest refinery in the US, which has a refining capacity that exceeds 600,000 bpd.

Lurking on the horizon is the massive US budget deficit and increasing rumblings that the US economic boom is over. 

It must be noted that there is a degree of financial manipulation underway in the oil futures markets. At the moment, there are few places where quick profits can be made, so some investors moved from stocks to commodities. Now, there are downward pressures on oil prices as some commodities market traders went long on oil futures, thinking that crude prices would rise. Then these same traders shorted natural gas, assuming that with a warmer winter, prices of that fuel would fall. Unfortunately for the traders, Trump’s sanction waivers on Iranian crude oil exports and cold weather on the US East Coast, caused exactly the reverse to take place. Oil prices fell and natural gas prices rose. Traders were therefore forced to sell their assets to cover margins, pushing oil prices lower. It is expected that some hedge funds and investment funds will also be moving away from going long on oil futures and this will cause further selling.
Lurking on the horizon is the massive US budget deficit and increasing rumbling that the US economic boom is over. The US federal budget deficit rose 17 percent in the 2018 fiscal year. It is now larger than in any year since 2012. Federal spending is up and amidst US President Donald Trump’s tax cuts, and federal revenue is not keeping pace. To make matters worse, the strong US economy and interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve have boosted the dollar.
A strong dollar makes commodities such as crude oil more expensive in international markets and reduces demand. Trump wants oil to be priced as low as possible to help bolster the US economy, which is clearly under strain, and to facilitate sales of crude abroad. But with a looming global oil shortage just a few years away due to a lack of upstream investment, it is incumbent on global oil producers to consider the long term in their output decisions.

* Faisal Mrza is an energy and oil market adviser. He was formerly with OPEC and Saudi Aramco. Reach him on Twitter: @faisalmrza