Oil rises on million barrels OPEC pledge

UAE’s Oil Minister OPEC President Suhail Mohamed Al Mazrouei and OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo address a news conference after an OPEC meeting in Vienna, Austria, June 22, 2018. (Reuters)
Updated 22 June 2018
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Oil rises on million barrels OPEC pledge

  • Oil prices rose almost 3 percent on Friday as OPEC agreed a modest increase in output to compensate for losses in production at a time of rising global demand.
  • The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed on Friday to boost output from July.

LONDON: Oil prices jumped yesterday afternoon as OPEC announced a more modest production increase than forecast.

The group said yesterday that it and its allies would from next month bring production back in line with levels originally agreed in late 2016, equivalent to an increase of around 1 million barrels.

But analysts have warned that the reaffirmed commitment — an effective production increase given that a number of producers have cut output more than agreed— would not be enough to lower prices, given further supply disruptions on the horizon.

OPEC Conference President and UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrouei told reporters in Vienna that the target was a group-level commitment, and that individual production quotas for member states had not been set.

Adherence to the decision would be “challenging for those countries that are struggling with keeping their level of production,” he said, but he noted that other countries could pick up any shortfall.

“We will deal with it collectively,” he said, insisting that the group would not not exceed production agreements.

“It is difficult already to achieve that 100 percent,” he added. “No one intends to do anything beyond that.”

But Thomas Pugh, a commodities analyst with Capital Economics, said while OPEC currently had little spare capacity, production rebounds by key states might tempt members to over-produce.

“OPEC has found it difficult to police group quotas in the past so today’s decision runs the risk of production rising above its target,” he said.

“If production starts to rebound in Venezuela or Angola then the group may quickly exceed its quota.”

The lack of detail over individual commitments followed disagreements between Iran and Saudi Arabia about the level of increases ahead of the meeting, according to energy expert Cornelia Meyer.

“The ‘collective agreement’ to return to 100 percent compliance was in the end sufficiently fuzzy for them to get an agreement,” she told Arab News.

“But going forward the market is going to want to see more detail as to how it will be implemented — and by whom — before it impacts prices.”

Brent crude futures rose around 3 percent on the news, briefly exceeding $75 per barrel in early afternoon trading, with prices forecast to rise further in the short-term.

“The effective increase in output can easily be absorbed by the market and is not going to tip the oil balance into negative territory,” Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodities strategy at BNP Paribas, told Reuters.

“I suspect the market will continue to grind higher, notably in view of oil inventories in the OECD being below the famous five-year average target and the ever present risk of supply outages in Venezuela and Libya.

The agreement is likely to do little to mollify those looking for higher output increases to ease pressure on prices, not least US President Donald Trump.

“Hope OPEC will increase output substantially. Need to keep prices down!” Trump tweeted yesterday, following the announcement of the agreement.

But Meyer noted that shifting macroeconomic trends — notably the prospect of growing trade wars between the US and trading partners like China and the EU — may see rising demand for oil slow or go into reverse.

“We’re out of the goldilocks scenario now,” she said.

“Both Saudi Arabia and Russia have talked up how much the market is short. From now on they may well have to talk it down in terms of that gap between supply and demand.”


Trump threatens tariffs on all $505 billion of Chinese imports

Updated 20 July 2018
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Trump threatens tariffs on all $505 billion of Chinese imports

WASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump said in an interview released Friday he is willing to hit all Chinese goods imported to the US with tariffs if necessary.
“I’m ready to go 500,” the Republican leader told the US network CNBC, referring to the $505.5 billion in Chinese imports accepted into the US in 2017.
“I’m not doing this for politics, I’m doing this to do the right thing for our country,” Trump said.
“We’ve been ripped off by China for a long time,” he added.
After weeks of apparently fruitless negotiations, the US early this month imposed 25 percent tariffs on approximately $34 billion of Chinese mechanical and technological products — sparking an immediate response from Beijing, which said it would hit back dollar for dollar.
China accused the US of starting the “largest trade war in economic history.”
A second tranche of $16 billion in products is under review and could soon be added to the US measures.
In the full interview released Friday Trump reiterated his claim that the US is “being taken advantage of” on issues including trade policy.
“I don’t want them to be scared. I want them to do well,” the US president said of China. “I really like President Xi a lot. But it was very unfair.”
The US-China spat is the largest and broadest of several trade fights picked by Trump.
The growing share of international trade under threat has raised the prospect the escalating trade war could harm the global economy by disrupting companies supply chains, pushing firms to hold off on investments and making goods more expensive for consumers.
In excerpts of the interview released on Thursday Trump had broken with the long-established executive branch practice of not commenting on the Federal Reserve’s decisions out of respect for its independence.
“I’m not thrilled,” Trump told the network in an interview excerpt aired Thursday. “Because we go up and every time you go up they want to raise rates again.”