World energy agency warns of calm before sanctions storm as oil steadies

The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that the global oil market might be experiencing the calm before the storm. (AFP)
Updated 10 August 2018
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World energy agency warns of calm before sanctions storm as oil steadies

LONDON: The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that the global oil market might be experiencing the calm before the storm.
While concerns about world trade arising from the tariffs dispute between the US and China have depressed demand expectations, the introduction of sanctions against Iran could pull the market in the other direction, the agency said.
“Sentiment is sandwiched between fears that a US-China trade dispute will hurt oil demand and looming Iranian supply shortages,” Stephen Brennock, analyst at London brokerage PVM Oil Associates, told Reuters.
The IEA did not change its forecast for global demand for oil to increase by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd).
However, it raised its forecast for demand growth next year to reach 1.5 bpd.
“The recent cooling down of the market, with short-term supply tensions easing, currently lower prices, and lower demand growth might not last,” the IEA said in its monthly report.
“As oil sanctions against Iran take effect, perhaps in combination with production problems elsewhere, maintaining global supply might be very challenging and would come at the expense of maintaining an adequate spare capacity cushion,” the IEA said.
The Paris-based organization noted that by the time it publishes its next report in mid-September, it will only be six weeks before the US deadline for ceasing purchase of oil from Iran.
Oil prices steadied in afternoon trade in London on Friday, rising by about 20 cents to $72.27 a barrel.
A trade war between the US and China is seen as a negative for the oil price as less energy is required for production.
China has removed crude oil from the list of additional tariffs it plans to impose on the US, worth some $16 billion.
Even so, Chinese imports of US oil are expected to fall dramatically.
At the same time, analysts are watching for the fallout from the introduction of US sanctions against Iran, which are set to include oil from November.
While the EU, China and India do not support the new sanctions against Tehran, they are nonetheless expected to fall into line behind the US.
Global trade tensions have helped to strengthen the dollar in what was a tumultuous week on global currency markets. The Turkish lira plunged on Friday, while the Russian rouble also came under pressure.
Oil is traded in dollars which makes it more expensive for importing countries.
“Oil, like other commodities, is responding to dollar strength,” Harry Tchilinguirian, head of oil strategy at French bank BNP Paribas in London, told the Reuters Global Oil Forum.


BP and SOCAR sign new Azeri oil deal

Updated 19 April 2019
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BP and SOCAR sign new Azeri oil deal

  • The Azeri Central East (ACE) platform, the latest phase of Azerbaijan’s giant Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli (ACG) oilfields extension program, is expected to produce 100,000 barrels of oil a day
  • BP and the government of Azerbaijan extended their agreement to continue developing the ACG fields until 2050 in a major deal in 2017

BAKU: Oil major BP and Azerbaijan’s state energy company SOCAR signed an agreement on Friday to build a new exploration platform for the South Caucasus nation’s three major oilfields, BP-Azerbaijan said in a statement.
The Azeri Central East (ACE) platform, the latest phase of Azerbaijan’s giant Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli (ACG) oilfields extension program, is expected to produce 100,000 barrels of oil a day and cost $6 billion to build, the company said.
The project is one of the biggest upstream investment decisions to have been signed in Azerbaijan so far this year.
The ACG fields, which to date have produced around 3.5 billion barrels of oil, are estimated to have the potential to yield another 3 billion barrels.
BP’s main aim now would be to maximize the extraction of remaining reserves, Robert Morris, senior analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said in a statement.
“ACE is central to those plans, adding 100,000 barrels per day of production at peak in the mid-2020s,” he said.
BP and the government of Azerbaijan extended their agreement to continue developing the ACG fields until 2050 in a major deal in 2017.
Separately, SOCAR and its partners at the BP-led ACG consortium plan to participate in a tender to acquire stakes being sold by two of its members, ExxonMobil and Chevron.
SOCAR President Rovnag Abdullayev made the announcement to reporters following a meeting of senior SOCAR figures on Friday.