German economy defies trade gloom with strong growth

The German economy has now grown for 34 of the past 37 quarters, said Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING in Frankfurt. (Reuters)
Updated 14 August 2018
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German economy defies trade gloom with strong growth

  • Germany’s economy, Europe’s biggest, grew by 0.5 percent compared with the previous three-month period
  • Economists had forecast a 0.4 percent increase this time

BERLIN: The German economy accelerated in the second quarter despite the US move to impose new tariffs on Europe, official data showed Tuesday, performing slightly better than economists had expected.
Germany’s economy, Europe’s biggest, grew by 0.5 percent compared with the previous three-month period. That is up from 0.4 percent in the first quarter — a figure that was revised upward Tuesday from the initial reading of 0.3 percent given in May. Economists had forecast a 0.4 percent increase this time.
Its performance in the April-June period was helped by higher private and government spending and by increased investment in equipment and construction, the Federal Statistical Office said. Rising exports were outpaced by increasing imports.
The figure underlined the German economy’s continuing robust performance, with business confidence high and unemployment low despite some disappointing data on factory orders this year and concern about global trade tensions.
It has now grown for 34 of the past 37 quarters, said Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING in Frankfurt, but he cautioned that “the challenges facing the German economy will increase rather than decrease.”
Those include the specter of a possible escalation of trade tensions, despite a recent deal to defuse a US-European Union dispute, geopolitical risks such as that posed by events in Turkey and a shortfall in investment and structural reforms at home, he said.
In year-on-year terms, the economy expanded by 2.3 percent in the second quarter.


Egypt stock market plunges as retail investors take flight

Updated 19 September 2018
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Egypt stock market plunges as retail investors take flight

  • Biggest index drop in Egypt since mid-2016
  • Saudi Arabia outperforms in Gulf

LONDON: Egyptian stocks tumbled to their lowest level this year on Wednesday as retail investors took flight.
A sharp rise in Suez Canal revenues, a major foreign exchange earner for the country, was not enough to quell investors concerns about the strength of the currency.
The main Egyptian stock index lost 3.8 percent which some fund managers blamed on generally negative sentiment toward emerging markets worldwide as well as more local speculation about possible currency devaluation.
“Our channel checks suggest the sell-off in the Egyptian market is local retail and institutions driven, on currency fears and speculation over a further round of devaluation,” said Vrajesh Bhandari, portfolio manager at Al Mal in Dubai, Reuters reported.
“Selling is further intensified as margin calls are triggered and technical support levels break down. The country canceled three consecutive Treasury auctions, citing investors’ unrealistic yield demands.”
Egypt’s Suez Canal revenues rose to $502.2 million in August up 6.7 percent from a year earlier according to official data released on Wednesday.
Elsewhere regional stock markets closed mostly lower with the exceptions of Abu Dhabi which edged 0.2 percent higher and Saudi Arabia, the best regional performer, which rose by 1.1 percent.
Saudi stocks are benefiting from the strong oil price which eased slightly yesterday but still hovered just under $79.
OPEC and some other oil producers including Russia will meet in Algeria on Sept. 23 to discuss how to allocate supply increases within their quota framework to offset the loss of oil exports from Iran following the introduction of sanctions by the US.
Those measures will come into force on Nov. 4 and data suggests that buyers are already retreating from Iranian crude purchases.
A key question for the oil price as well as regional stock markets in the weeks ahead will be the extent to which other Gulf oil exporters can compenaste for the loss of Iranian supplies by pumping more.