Oil prices slip amid fears over global economic growth

US data on Wednesday showed crude output rose by 100,000 barrels per day to 10.9 million bpd in the week ending August 10. (Reuters)
Updated 17 August 2018
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Oil prices slip amid fears over global economic growth

TOKYO: Oil prices fell on Friday, with US crude heading for a seventh weekly decline amid increasing concerns about slowing global economic growth that could hit demand for petroleum products as inventories build.
Brent crude oil futures were down 3 cents at $71.40 a barrel by 00229 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dropped 1 cent to $65.45 a barrel.
Brent is heading for a 2 percent decline this week, a third consecutive weekly drop. WTI is on track for a seventh week of losses, with a fall of more than 3 percent.
Data on Wednesday showing a large build in US inventories fostered fears about the outlook for fuel demand, while crude was also pressured by broader selling of industrial commodities and by the Turkish financial crisis.
“Investors remain cautious as Wednesday’s surprise gain in US stockpiles remained fresh in their minds,” ANZ said in a note.
China and the United States have implemented several rounds of trade tariffs and threatened further duties on exports worth hundreds of billions of dollars, which could knock global economic growth.
At the same time, the crisis gripping the Turkish lira has rattled emerging markets and reverberated across equities, bonds and raw materials.
US data on Wednesday showed crude output rose by 100,000 barrels per day to 10.9 million bpd in the week ending Aug. 10.
Crude inventories increased by 6.8 million barrels, representing the largest weekly rise since March last year.
Asian demand is showing signs of slowdown as trade disputes and a stronger dollar drag the economies of some of the world’s largest oil buyers.


Record budget spurs Saudi economy

The budget sets out to lift spending and cut the deficit. (Shutterstock)
Updated 19 December 2018
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Record budget spurs Saudi economy

  • “It is a growth-supportive budget with both capital and current expenditure set to rise.”
  • Government spending is projected to rise to SR 1.106 trillion

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia on Tuesday announced its biggest-ever budget — with spending set to increase by around 7 percent — in a move aimed at boosting the economy, while also reducing the deficit. 

However, analysts cautioned that the 2019 budget is based on oil prices far higher than today — which could prove an obstacle in hitting targets. 

Government spending is projected to rise to SR 1.106 trillion ($295 billion) next year, up from an actual SR 1.030 trillion this year, Minister of Finance Mohammed Al-Jadaan said at a briefing in Riyadh. 

The budget estimates a 9 percent annual increase in revenues to SR 975 billion. The budget deficit is forecast at SR 131 billion for next year, a 4.2 percent decline on 2018.

“We believe that the 2019 fiscal budget will focus on supporting economic activity — investment and wider,” Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB), told Arab News.

“It is a growth-supportive budget with both capital and current expenditure set to rise.”

A royal decree by Saudi Arabia’s King Salman, also announced on Tuesday, ordered the continuation of allowances covering the cost of living for civil sector employees for the new fiscal year.

“The continuation of the handout package will be positive for household consumption by nationals,” said Malik. “We expect to see some overall fiscal loosening in 2019, which should support a further gradual pickup in real non-oil GDP growth.”

World oil prices on Tuesday tumbled to their lowest levels in more than a year amid concerns over demand. Brent crude contracts fell to as low as $57.20 during morning trading.

Malik cautioned that the oil-price assumptions in the Saudi budget looked “optimistic.”

“We see the fiscal deficit widening in 2019, with the higher spending and forecast fall in oil revenue,” she told Arab News.

Jason Tuvey, an economist at London-based Capital Economics, agreed that the oil forecast was optimistic, but said this should not pose problems for government finances.

“The government seems to be expecting oil prices to average $80 (per barrel) next year,” he said. 

“In contrast, we think that oil prices will stay low and possibly fall a little further to $55 … On that basis, the budget deficit is likely to be closer to 10 percent of GDP. That won’t cause too many problems given the government’s strong balance sheet. 

“Overall, then, we think that there will be some fiscal loosening in the first half of next year, but if oil prices stay low as we expect, the authorities will probably shift tack and return to austerity from the mid-2019, which will weigh on growth in the non-oil sector,” Tuvey said.

John Sfakianakis, chief economist at the Gulf Research Center, based in Saudi Arabia, said that the targets of the budget were “achievable” and the forecast oil price reasonable. 

“It is an expansionary budget that should spurt private sector activity and growth,” he said. 

“With Brent crude averaging around $68 per barrel for 2018 and $66 per barrel for 2019, the authorities have applied a conservative revenue scenario.”