Oil steady on lower Iran exports, rising US supply

A pump jack operates in the Permian Basin oil production area near Wink, Texas U.S. August 22, 2018. (Reuters)
Updated 29 August 2018
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Oil steady on lower Iran exports, rising US supply

  • Iran’s crude oil and condensate exports in August are set to drop below 70 million barrels for the first time since April 2017
  • Bowing to pressure from Washington, many crude buyers have already reduced orders from Iran

LONDON: Oil prices steadied on Wednesday, supported by news of a fall in Iranian crude supplies as US sanctions deter buyers, but held back by evidence of a rise in US inventories.
Benchmark Brent crude oil was unchanged at $75.95 a barrel by 0905 GMT. US light crude was 5 cents higher at $68.58 a barrel.
Iran’s crude oil and condensate exports in August are set to drop below 70 million barrels for the first time since April 2017, well ahead of the Nov. 4 start date for a second round of US economic sanctions, preliminary trade flows data on Thomson Reuters Eikon show.
Bowing to pressure from Washington, many crude buyers have already reduced orders from Iran, OPEC’s third-biggest producer.
Although Tehran is offering steep discounts, Iran’s August crude oil and condensate loadings are estimated at 2.06 million bpd, versus a peak of 3.09 million bpd in April.
“US sanctions toward Iran are now increasingly kicking in which will help to dry up the physical crude oil market,” said SEB Markets commodities analyst Bjarne Schieldrop.
US crude inventories rose by 38,000 barrels to 405.7 million barrels in the week to Aug. 24, the American Petroleum Institute said on Tuesday.
Official US fuel inventory and crude production data will be published later on Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Traders said reports of potential investment in Venezuela’s struggling oil production also affected markets. Venezuelan crude exports have halved since 2016 to below 1 million barrels per day (bpd).
To stem tumbling output, Venezuelan state-run oil firm PDVSA said on Tuesday it had signed a $430 million investment agreement to increase production by 640,000 bpd at 14 oilfields, although some analysts doubted whether this investment would go through given the instability in the country.
Despite the risk of disruption, especially from OPEC-countries like Venezuela, Iran, Libya and Nigeria, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said global supply could climb toward the end of the year.
“Heading into 4Q18, we expect rising non-OPEC oil production as supply outages abate and greenfield projects ramp up,” the US bank said. “Non-OPEC supply outages are at a 15-month high of 730,000 bpd. However, nearly half of these volumes are in the process of being restored.”
Adding to that will be new production in Canada, Brazil and the United States, which the bank said “should provide a substantial boost to non-OPEC supplies” during the second half of the year “taming upside pressures on Brent crude oil prices.”


‘No sign of waning appetite for oil’

Updated 22 September 2018
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‘No sign of waning appetite for oil’

  • Oil is so entrenched in the modern world that demand is still rising by up to 1.5 percent a year
  • Of the almost 100 million barrels of oil consumed daily, more than 60 million bpd is used for transport

LONDON: Global oil consumption will reach 100 million barrels per day (bpd) — more than double the level of 50 years ago — in months, according to an industry report by Reuters.
Despite overwhelming evidence of carbon-fueled climate change and billions in subsidies for alternative technologies such as wind and solar power, oil is so entrenched in the modern world that demand is still rising by up to 1.5 percent a year, said the report.
There is no consensus on when world oil demand will peak but much depends on how governments respond to global warming, according the International Energy Agency (IEA), which advises Western economies on energy policy.
OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo told a conference in South Africa on Sept. 5 that global consumption would hit 100 million bpd this year, sooner than anyone had expected.
With a sophisticated global infrastructure for extraction, refining and distribution, oil produces such a powerful burst of energy that it is invaluable for some forms of transport such as aircraft.
Of the almost 100 million barrels of oil consumed daily, more than 60 million bpd is used for transport. Alternative fuel systems such as battery-powered electric cars still have little market share.
Much of the remaining oil is used to make plastics by a petrochemicals industry that has few alternative feedstocks.
Although government pressure to limit the use of hydrocarbons such as oil, gas and coal is increasing, few analysts believe oil demand will decrease in the next decade.
If the current mix of policies continues, the IEA expects world oil demand to rise for at least the next 20 years, heading for 125 million bpd around the middle of the century.