Oil rises on Iran sanctions and lower US stockpiles

An oil well pump jack is seen at an oil field supply yard near Denver, Colorado, U.S., February 2, 2015. (Reuters)
Updated 30 August 2018
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Oil rises on Iran sanctions and lower US stockpiles

LONDON: Oil prices extended gains yesterday as the market considered the impact of reduced Iranian exports and a fall in
US stockpiles.

Brent crude gained more than 50 cents a barrel at $77.64 by midday in London, taking its weekly gain to almost 10 percent.

US light crude was 40 cents higher at about $69.91.

“The oil market is once again tightening after a short period in late June and early July when it was likely oversupplied,” said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS Group AG in Zurich. “Iranian oil export declines are already visible well in advance of US oil-related sanctions.”

Most of Iran’s customers are already facing difficulties in buying the country’s crude even before sanctions are imposed on Nov. 4, Bloomberg reported on Thursday.

India and China’s combined purchases of Iranian oil could drop about 23 percent to almost 1 million barrels a day amid the US restrictions, ESAI Energy said. 

OPEC is set to discuss the impact of the decline in Iranian crude on global energy markets when it meets in December — more than a month after the oil sanctions come into effect.

“A sudden drop in Iranian crude shipments from the market will cause big shortages and a negative impact on oil prices,” he said, referring to a possible increase in prices,” Alaa Al-Yasiri the head of Iraq’s state-oil marketer SOMO, told Reuters on Wednesday. “It’s very difficult to predict what’s going to happen in next OPEC meeting but producers must find ways to make up for Iranian crude that the market will lose. The major issue during the next OPEC meeting will be are producers really ready to pump more oil to compensate Iran’s share?”

Ongoing concerns over supplies from Venezuela as well as declining US oil inventories have stengthened claims that the global oil market is tightening once again.

US commercial crude inventories fell by 2.6 million barrels in the week to Aug. 24, to 405.79 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. That was more than forecast.

Still, current US sanctions on Iran are unlikely to stop Iranian oil exports completely, a long-time adviser at Saudi Arabia’s Energy Ministry said on Tuesday, adding Iran would be unable to close the straits of Hormuz and Bab Al-Mandab even partially.

Speaking at an oil conference in the Norwegian city of Stavanger, Ibrahim Al-Muhanna said that Iran would be the first to lose out from any move to block those major shipping routes and that any such action would trigger further sanctions on Iran.

Iran has said if it cannot sell its oil due to US pressure, then no other regional country will be allowed to do so either, threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz.

“The amount of oil going through the Strait of Hormuz is so large. There’s more than 18 million barrels a day, about two-thirds of world maritime oil trade. Meaning, cutting oil from there will lead to an acute oil shortage and prices will skyrocket,” Muhanna said.


OPEC may cancel April meet, but hold steady on oil output: Saudi energy minister

Saudi Arabia’s energy minister Khalid Al-Falih that April may be premature to make any production decision for the second half. (Reuters)
Updated 18 March 2019
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OPEC may cancel April meet, but hold steady on oil output: Saudi energy minister

  • ‘As long as the levels of inventories are rising and we are far from normal levels, we will stay the course guiding the market toward balance’
  • ‘The consensus we heard ... is that April will be premature to make any production decision for the second half’

BAKU: OPEC and its non-OPEC partners need to reconsider if there is a need for a meeting in April, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister said on Monday, adding that there was no pressure from the United States to increase supply.
“We are not under pressure except by the market,” Khalid Al-Falih told reporters ahead of a meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan.
“As long as the levels of inventories are rising and we are far from normal levels, we will stay the course guiding the market toward balance.”
The JMMC includes major oil producers Saudi Arabia and Russia and monitors the oil market and conformity levels with supply cuts.
“There is a consensus that has also emerged that no matter what, we should stay the course until the end of June.”
Asked whether he was updated on whether the United States administration would extend the waivers it granted to buyers of Iranian crude, which are due to end in May, Al-Falih said: “Until we see it hurting consumers, until we see the impact on inventory, we are not going to change course.”
The oil producers are due to meet next in April in Vienna, but Al-Falih said this may not happen.
“The consensus we heard ... is that April will be premature to make any production decision for the second half,” Al-Falih said.
“We may not have a meeting in April,” he said, adding that the JMMC may recommend this later on Monday.