Oil rises as US drilling stalls, Washington sanctions on Iran loom

Violence in Iraq, including a rocket attack on Basra airport on Saturday, also sparked fears of supply disruptions, although so far there have been no interruptions to oil exports. (File/Shutterstock)
Updated 10 September 2018
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Oil rises as US drilling stalls, Washington sanctions on Iran loom

  • US energy companies cut two oil rigs last week, bringing the total count to 860
  • New US sanctions against Iran’s crude exports from November were helping push up prices

SINGAPORE: Oil prices rose on Monday as US drilling for new production stalled and as the market eyed tighter conditions once Washington’s sanctions against Iran’s crude exports kick in from November.
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $68.23 per barrel at 0640 GMT, up 48 cents, or 0.7 percent, from their last settlement.
Brent crude futures climbed 64 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $77.46 a barrel.
US energy companies cut two oil rigs last week, bringing the total count to 860, energy services firm Baker Hughes said on Friday.
The US rig count has stagnated since May, after staging a recovery since 2016, which followed a steep slump the previous year amid plummeting crude prices.
Outside the United States, new US sanctions against Iran’s crude exports from November were helping push up prices.
Energy consultancy FGE said several major Iran customers like India, Japan and South Korea were already cutting back on Iran crude.
“Governments can talk tough. They can say they are going to stand up to Trump and/or push for waivers. But generally the companies we speak to ... say they won’t risk it,” FGE said.
“US financial penalties and the loss of shipping insurance scares everyone,” it said in a note to clients.
Violence in Iraq, including a rocket attack on Basra airport on Saturday, also sparked fears of supply disruptions, although so far there have been no interruptions to oil exports.
Tighter outlook?
With US rig activity stalling and Iran sanctions looming, the oil market outlook is tightening.
“Investors have largely turned positive again ... likely welcoming the return of backwardation,” said Edward Bell, commodity analyst at Emirates NBD bank.
Backwardation describes a market in which prices for immediate delivery are higher than those for later dispatch. It is considered a sign of tight conditions giving traders an incentive to sell oil immediately instead of storing it.
The Brent backwardation between October this year and mid-2019 is currently around $2.20 per barrel.
While Washington exerts pressure on other countries to fall into line and also cut imports from Iran, it is also urging other major producers to raise their output in order not to create too strong a price spike.
US Energy Secretary Rick Perry will meet counterparts from Saudi Arabia and Russia on Monday and Thursday, respectively, as the Trump administration seeks the world’s biggest exporter and producer to keep output up.
One key question going forward is how demand develops amid the trade dispute between the United States and China, as well as general emerging market weakness.
Asian shares on Monday were on track for their eighth straight session of declines, while China’s yuan and India’s rupee also came under renewed pressure as US President Donald Trump threatened yet more import tariffs on Chinese goods.
Consultancy FGE warned that “trade wars, and especially rising interest rates, can spell trouble for the emerging markets that drive (oil) demand growth.”
Despite this, FGE said the likelihood of significantly weaker oil prices was relatively low as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) would withhold output to prevent prices from plunging.
“We see $65 per barrel as a trigger for cuts,” FGE said.


Oil rises after US Navy destroys Iranian drone

Updated 16 min 43 sec ago
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Oil rises after US Navy destroys Iranian drone

  • The International Energy Agency is revising its 2019 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.1 million barrels per day
  • Speculators have exited options positions that could have provided exposure to higher prices in the next several years

TOKYO: Oil prices rose more than 1 percent on Friday after the US Navy destroyed an Iranian drone in the Strait of Hormuz, a major chokepoint for global crude flows, again raising tensions in the Middle East.
Brent crude futures were up 82 cents, or 1.3 percent, at $62.75 by 0100 GMT. They closed down 2.7 percent on Thursday, falling for a fourth day.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures firmed 61 cents, or 1.1 percent, at 55.91. They fell 2.6 percent in the previous session.
The United States said on Thursday that a US Navy ship had “destroyed” an Iranian drone in the Strait of Hormuz after the aircraft threatened the vessel, but Iran said it had no information about losing a drone.
The move comes after Britain pledged to defend its shipping interests in the region, while US Central Command chief General Kenneth McKenzie said the United States would work “aggressively” to enable free passage after recent attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf.
Still, the longer-term outlook for oil has grown increasingly bearish.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) is reducing its 2019 oil demand forecast due to a slowing global economy amid a US-China trade spat, its executive director said on Thursday.
The IEA is revising its 2019 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) and may cut it again if the global economy and especially China shows further weakness, Fatih Birol said.
“China is experiencing its slowest economic growth in the last three decades, so are some of the advanced economies ... if the global economy performs even poorer than we assume, then we may even look at our numbers once again in the next months to come,” Birol told Reuters in an interview.
Last year, the IEA predicted that 2019 oil demand would grow by 1.5 million bpd but had already cut the growth forecast to 1.2 million bpd in June this year.
Speculators have exited options positions that could have provided exposure to higher prices in the next several years, market participants said on Thursday.
US offshore oil and gas production has continued to return to service since Hurricane Barry passed through the Gulf of Mexico last week, triggering platform evacuations and output cuts.
Royal Dutch Shell, a top Gulf producer, said Wednesday it had resumed about 80 percent of its average daily production in the region.