Turkey sees lower growth, double-digit inflation in next years

FILE PHOTO: Turkish Treasury and Finance Minister Berat Albayrak speaks during a presentation to announce his economic policy in Istanbul, Turkey August 10, 2018. (Reuters)
Updated 20 September 2018
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Turkey sees lower growth, double-digit inflation in next years

  • The economy, which grew by 7.4 percent in 2017, would expand by just 3.8 percent in 2018 and then 2.3 percent in 2019
  • For 2020 and 2021, the forecasts were more optimistic, with growth seen at 3.5 percent

ISTANBUL: Turkey, which was last month buffeted by its worst currency crisis in recent years, on Thursday forecast sharply lower growth coupled with persistently high inflation in its new medium-term economic program.
The economy, which grew by 7.4 percent in 2017, would expand by just 3.8 percent in 2018 and then 2.3 percent in 2019, according to figures unveiled at a presentation in Istanbul by Finance Minister Berat Albayrak.
Inflation, meanwhile, would balloon to 20.8 percent at the end of 2018, moderating only slightly to 15.9 percent in 2019, the figures showed.
For 2020 and 2021, the forecasts were more optimistic, with growth seen at 3.5 percent and 5.0 percent, respectively, while inflation is seen moderating finally to a single digit 9.8 percent in 2020 and then a year later to 6.0 percent.
Albayrak, who is a son-in-law of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, said what he termed the “New Economic Programme” would be based on the three principes of “balancing, discipline, and change.”
“Our aim is to write a new success story,” he said.
Greater economic prosperity has been one of the pillars of Erdogan’s popularity in his over 15 years in power, with the country seeing impressive growth rates in consecutive years.
However economists have warned that the all-out push for growth has led to a potentially dangerous overheating, with inflation rampant, the currency account deficit widening and doubts over the health of the banking system.
These fault lines were exposed in August when a diplomatic spat with the United States caused a crash in the value of the lira, sparking fears of a full-blown economic crisis.
Albayrak said that in 2019 projects whose tender had not been carried out would be “suspended” and vowed Turkey would create two million new job opportunities by 2021.
“We will realize a program to totally fight against inflation,” Albayrak said, highlighting food inflation which has particularly worried Turks.
Markets greeted his assessments as realistic but the lira was trading lightly lower against the dollar at 6.2, a loss of 0.8 percent in value on the day.


Can a hungry Mali turn rice technology into ‘white gold’?

Updated 20 October 2018
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Can a hungry Mali turn rice technology into ‘white gold’?

  • Malians are cautiously turning to a controversial farming technique to adapt to the effects of climate change
  • Dubbed the System of Rice Intensification (SRI), the new method was pioneered in Madagascar in 1983

BAGUINEDA: When rice farmers started producing yields nine times larger than normal in the Malian desert near the famed town of Timbuktu a decade ago, a passerby could have mistaken the crop for another desert mirage.
Rather, it was the result of an engineering feat that has left experts in this impoverished nation in awe — but one that has yet to spread widely through Mali’s farming community.
“We must redouble efforts to get political leaders on board,” said Djiguiba Kouyaté, a coordinator in Mali for German development agency GIZ.
With hunger a constant menace, Malians are cautiously turning to a controversial farming technique to adapt to the effects of climate change.

 

Dubbed the System of Rice Intensification (SRI), the new method was pioneered in Madagascar in 1983. It involves planting fewer seeds of traditional rice varieties and taking care of them following a strict regime.
Seedlings are transplanted at a very young age and spaced widely. Soil is enriched with organic matter, and must be kept moist, though the system uses less water than traditional rice farming.
Up to 20 million farmers now use SRI in 61 countries, including in nearby Sierra Leone, Senegal and Ivory Coast, said Norman Uphoff, of the SRI International Network and Resources Center at Cornell University in the US.
But, despite its success, the technique has been embraced with varying degrees of enthusiasm. Uphoff said that is because it competes with the improved hybrid and inbred rice varieties that agricultural corporations sell.
For Faliry Boly, who heads a rice-growing association, the prospect of rice becoming a “white gold” for Mali should spur on authorities and farmers to adopt rice intensification.
The method could increase yields while also offering a more environmentally-friendly alternative, including by replacing chemical fertilizers with organic ones, he said.
He also pointed out that rice intensification naturally lends itself to Mali’s largely arid climate.

FACTOID

Up to 20 million farmers now use rice intensification in 61 countries, including in nearby Sierra Leone, Senegal and Ivory Coast.