Full-blown US, China trade war to cost jobs, growth and stability — WTO’s Azevedo

The director-general of the World Trade Organization, Roberto Azevedo, said: “There would be no winners from such a scenario and every region would be affected.” (AFP)
Updated 25 September 2018
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Full-blown US, China trade war to cost jobs, growth and stability — WTO’s Azevedo

  • ‘A continued escalation of tensions would pose an increased threat to stability, to jobs and to the kind of growth that we are seeing today’
  • ‘There would be no winners from such a scenario and every region would be affected’

BERLIN: A full-blown trade war would have serious effects on global economic growth and there would be no winners of such a scenario, the director-general of the World Trade Organization (WTO), Roberto Azevedo, said on Tuesday.
Speaking at a Berlin industry event against the backdrop of growing trade tensions between China and the US, Azevedo said: “The warning lights are flashing. A continued escalation of tensions would pose an increased threat to stability, to jobs and to the kind of growth that we are seeing today.”
A full-blown global trade war with a breakdown in international trade cooperation would reduce global trade growth by around 70 percent and GDP growth by 1.9 percent, Azevedo said.
“There would be no winners from such a scenario and every region would be affected,” Azevedo said. The European Union itself would have about 1.7 percent taken off its GDP growth, he said, adding: “Clearly, we cannot let this happen.”
Azevedo pointed to several reform proposals that addressed trade-distorting practices and the WTO’s existing mechanisms to resolve trade disputes, adding that members had to agree on which reforms they wanted to focus on.
“Clearly, this informed debate is gaining significant momentum and that is positive,” Azevedo said, adding the G20 summit in Buenos Aires in November would be crucial to agree on the next steps to safeguard the rules-based free trade order.
“Of course, the system can be better, in fact it must be better. But it’s nonetheless vital. So while we work to improve it and ensure that it’s more responsible to evolving economic needs, we must also preserve what we have — and I count on your support to that end,” he said.


Lufthansa profit warning spooks European airline sector

Updated 17 June 2019
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Lufthansa profit warning spooks European airline sector

  • Ryanair Chief Executive Michael O’Leary last month warned of the impact of what he called ‘attritional fare wars’

FRANKFURT: Germany’s Lufthansa sent shockwaves through the European airline sector on Monday as it cut its full-year profit forecast, with lower prices and higher fuel costs compounding the effect of losses at its budget subsidiary Eurowings.
The warning follows gloomy comments last month from Irish budget airline Ryanair, which vies with Lufthansa for top spot in Europe in terms of passengers carried. Air France-KLM also reported a widening quarterly loss last month.
In a statement issued late on Sunday, Lufthansa forecast annual EBIT of between €2 billion and €2.4 billion, down from the previously targeted €2.4 billion to €3 billion.
“Yields in the European short-haul market, in particular in the group’s home markets, Germany and Austria, are affected by sustained overcapacities caused by carriers willing to accept significant losses to expand their market share,” it said.
European airlines are locked in a battle for supremacy, with a surfeit of seats holding down revenues and higher fuel costs adding to the pressure. A number of smaller airlines have collapsed over the past two years.
Lufthansa cited falling revenue from its Eurowings budget business as a key reason for the profit warning.
“The group expects the European market to remain challenging at least for the remainder of 2019,” it said.
It also pointed to high jet fuel costs, which it said could exceed last year’s figure by €550 million, despite a recent fall in crude oil prices.
Ryanair Chief Executive Michael O’Leary last month warned of the impact of what he called “attritional fare wars” and said four or five European airlines were likely to emerge as the winners in the sector.
“No signs that anyone is prepared to reduce capacity, therefore we would anticipate the wave of consolidation in European short haul is not over,” said analyst Neil Wilson, analyst at London-based broker market.com.
Earlier this month global airlines slashed a widely watched industry profit forecast by 21 percent as an expanding trade war and higher oil prices compound worries about an overdue industry slowdown.
Lufthansa’s problems are centered on its European business, with a more positive outlook for its long-haul operations, especially on transatlantic and Asian routes.
Eurowings management is due to implement turnaround measures to be presented shortly, Lufthansa said, adding that efforts to reduce costs had so far been slower than expected.
Lufthansa’s adjusted margin for earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) was forecast between 5.5 percent and 6.5 percent, down from 6.5 percent to 8 percent previously, it said in a statement.
Lufthansa also said it would make a €340 million provision for in its first-half accounts, relating to a tax matter in Germany originating in the years between 2001 and 2005.