US government refrains from calling China a currency manipulator

China could bolster confidence in the yuan by engaging in more market-friendly reforms. (AFP)
Updated 18 October 2018
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US government refrains from calling China a currency manipulator

  • The US Treasury Department said a recent depreciation of China’s yuan currency will likely exacerbate the US trade deficit
  • China is trying to counter some of the yuan depreciation

WASHINGTON: The US government on Wednesday refrained from naming China or any other trading partner as a currency manipulator, as it leans on import tariffs to try to cut a trade deficit with China.
In its semi-annual currency report, the US Treasury Department said a recent depreciation of China’s yuan currency will likely exacerbate the US trade deficit, but US officials found Beijing appeared to be doing little to directly intervene in the currency’s value.
US President Donald Trump has claimed that China’s rise as an exporting powerhouse has hurt US workers and since taking office he has ordered tariffs on more than $200 billion in Chinese imports.
“Of particular concern are China’s lack of currency transparency and the recent weakness in its currency,” said Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.
Since the Treasury’s last currency report was issued on April 13, the yuan has fallen by more than 9.0 percent against the US dollar.
In the last week, the currency has pushed closer to the key 7 to the dollar threshold, a level not breached since 2008. Some currency derivatives show market participants expect the yuan to weaken past that level within a year.
The Treasury noted reports that China was trying to counter some of the yuan depreciation and said China could bolster confidence in the yuan by engaging in more market-friendly reforms.
“Treasury is deeply disappointed that China continues to refrain from disclosing its foreign exchange intervention,” the department said in its report.
It added that China should advance macroeconomic reforms that support greater household consumption growth and help rebalance the economy away from investment.
China’s multi-decade investment boom has helped make it the world’s factory and fueled a trade surplus in goods with the US of $390 billion in the 12 months through June.
Some China experts have speculated that Beijing could use yuan devaluation as a weapon in a broader trade war with the US.
The Treasury also said it was keeping China, India, Japan, Germany, South Korea and Switzerland on a monitoring list for extra scrutiny.
The Treasury said it was concerned that South Korea stepped up interventions in currency markets that appeared “to have been for the purpose of slowing won appreciation against the dollar.”
The Treasury said India was on course to be left off the list when it is next updated in six months. India was added in April after a burst in foreign exchange sales by the country’s central bank.


Davos organizer WEF warns of growing risk of cyberattacks in Gulf

Updated 16 January 2019
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Davos organizer WEF warns of growing risk of cyberattacks in Gulf

  • Critical infrastructure such as power centers and water plants at particular risk, says expert
  • Report finds that unemployment is a major concern in Bahrain, Egypt, Morocco, Oman and Tunisia

LONDON: The World Economic Forum (WEF) has warned of the growing possibility of cyberattacks in the Gulf — with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar particularly vulnerable.

Cyberattacks were ranked as the second most important risk — after an “energy shock” — in the three Gulf states, according to the WEF’s flagship Global Risks Report 2019.

The report was released ahead of the WEF’s annual forum in Davos, Switzerland, which starts on Tuesday.

In an interview with Arab News, John Drzik, president of global risk and digital at professional services firm Marsh & McLennan said: “The risk of cyberattacks on critical infrastructure such as power centers and water plants is moving up the agenda in the Middle East, and in the Gulf in particular.”

Drzik was speaking on the sidelines of a London summit where WEF unveiled the report, which was compiled in partnership with Marsh and Zurich Insurance.

“Cyberattacks are a growing concern as the regional economy becomes more sophisticated,” he said.

“Critical infrastructure means centers where disablement could affect an entire society — for instance an attack on an electric grid.”

Countries needed to “upgrade to reflect the change in the cyber risk environment,” he added.

The WEF report incorporated the results of a survey taken from about 1,000 experts and decision makers.

The top three risks for the Middle East and Africa as a whole were found to be an energy price shock, unemployment or underemployment, and terrorist attacks.

Worries about an oil price shock were said to be particularly pronounced in countries where government spending was rising, said WEF. This group includes Saudi Arabia, which the IMF estimated in May 2018 had seen its fiscal breakeven price for oil — that is, the price required to balance the national budget — rise to $88 a barrel, 26 percent above the IMF’s October 2017 estimate, and also higher than the country’s medium-term oil-price target of $70–$80.

But that disclosure needed to be balanced with the fact that risk of “fiscal crises” dropped sharply in the WEF survey rankings, from first position last year to fifth in 2018.

The report said: “Oil prices increased substantially between our 2017 and 2018 surveys, from around $50 to $75. This represents a significant fillip for the fiscal position of the region’s oil producers, with the IMF estimating that each $10 increase in oil prices should feed through to an improvement on the fiscal balance of 3 percentage points of GDP.”

At national level, this risk of “unemployment and underemployment” ranked highly in Bahrain, Egypt, Morocco, Oman and Tunisia.
“Unemployment is a pressing issue in the region, particularly for the rapidly expanding young population: Youth unemployment averages around 25 percent and is close to 50 percent in Oman,” said the report.

Other countries attaching high prominence to domestic and regional fractures in the survey were Tunisia, with “profound
social instability” ranked first, and Algeria, where respondents ranked “failure of regional and global governance” first.

Looking at the global picture, WEF warned that weakened international co-operation was damaging the collective will to confront key issues such as climate change and environmental degradation.