Strategies behind the Iran sanctions — Arab News' weekly energy recap

Crude oil prices continued their downward momentum with Brent crude falling to nearly a three-month-low at $72.83 per barrel. (AFP)
Updated 03 November 2018

Strategies behind the Iran sanctions — Arab News' weekly energy recap

RIYADH: Crude oil prices continued their downward momentum with Brent crude falling to nearly a three-month-low at $72.83 per barrel.
WTI also fell to $63.14 per barrel. The commitment of Saudi Arabia and Russia to offset any shortages after the imposition of sanctions on Iran have eased oil prices. Noticeably, Saudi Arabia increased its production to 10.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in October and is capable of increasing output further if needed. Russia produced at a post-Soviet-era peak of 11.36 million bpd in September. This news has comforted the market with the knowledge that any supply shortages from Iran will be effectively met.
Tomorrow, the US economic sanctions on Iran will come into force. These sanctions were supposed to take Iranian oil exports to zero amid the “highest level of economic sanctions” imposed. However, the US granted waivers to Iran’s top buyers, so that Iran will still be able to legally export at least one million bpd.
Even prior to the sanctions, Iran’s crude oil exports went down from 2.2 million bpd to 1.5 million bpd, as most of Iran’s customers have found other suppliers. Despite the US waivers, many nations will continue to look for other options to purchase the crude oil they need, as the US waivers could be withdrawn with little warning.
It is not clear yet if Iranian condensate will be included in this latest round of sanctions. It was not included during the 2012 sanctions because the Obama administration did not consider condensates to be crude oil. Much of Iranian condensate is from natural gas processing plants. There has been no Trump administration policy statement on whether Iranian condensates will be treated the same way as crude oil.
Any crude oil Iran can sell will be some relief for the country as it is running out of storage. Early last month, Iran was forced to move two million barrels of crude into a bonded storage tank at the port of Dalian in northeast China. It used a similar tactic during previous US sanctions. Such a ploy is necessary so that Iran can maintain enough storage for condensate from its natural gas fields. Otherwise, they would be forced to shutter natural gas production. That would cause severe unrest among its population since natural gas is used for about 70 percent of Iranian domestic energy consumption, including home heating.
China is the largest importer of Iranian crude. China used to be the largest importer of US shale oil until the outbreak of the US-China trade dispute. Now is the time for China to play its cards, inviting the US to de-escalate the trade dispute if China agrees to buy US crude in place of Iranian barrels. Considering that China’s trade surplus with the US has hit record highs, this could be a win-win situation. The only question is whether the US oil export infrastructure can keep up with the volumes needed. US oil exports have faced some challenges lately, dropping to 1.5 million bpd from a peak of two million bpd.
Another issue, which is also uncertain in regards to the US sanctions, is the small amount of trade of Iranian crude oil which is done through small banks outside the US financial system. Those banks helped Iran to export oil during 2012 sanctions. This is despite the fact that Iranian oil tankers will face huge challenges in securing insurance that is mandated by the refineries’ discharging ports.
Finally, it is unknown if the sanctions will include Iran’s “swap” arrangements with neighboring countries. Iran does oil-gas swaps with Caspian Sea nations. It also does oil swap deals with these countries, so that Tehran can supply northern areas with oil processed at the Tehran, Tabriz, and Arak refineries without having to transport it all the way from wells in the south. In another swap deal, Iraq sends oil from its northern Kirkuk fields to Iran by road, to be refined in Iran.
In return, Iran sends the same amount of crude to Iraq’s southern ports for exports. These swaps are considered an outlet for Iranian crude oil and US sanctions on them could cause considerable disruption.


Huawei given 90 days to buy from US suppliers

Trader Tommy Kalikas works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Monday, Aug. 19, 2019. (AP)
Updated 20 August 2019

Huawei given 90 days to buy from US suppliers

  • Shortly after blacklisting the company in May, the Commerce Department initially allowed Huawei to purchase some American-made goods in a move aimed at minimizing disruption for its customers

WASHINGTON: US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said Monday the US government will extend a reprieve given to Huawei Technologies that permits the Chinese firm to buy supplies from US companies so that it can service existing customers, even as nearly 50 of its units were being added to a US economic blacklist.
The “temporary general license,” due to expire on Monday, will be extended for Huawei for 90 days, he told Fox Business Network Monday, confirming an expected decision first reported Friday by Reuters. He also said he was adding 46 Huawei affiliates to the Entity List, raising the total number to more than 100 Huawei entities that are covered by the restrictions.
Ross said the extension was to aid US customers, many of which operate networks in rural America.
“We’re giving them a little more time to wean themselves off,” Ross said.
Shortly after blacklisting the company in May, the Commerce Department initially allowed Huawei to purchase some American-made goods in a move aimed at minimizing disruption for its customers.
The extension, through Nov. 19, renews an agreement continuing the Chinese company’s ability to maintain existing telecommunications networks and provide software updates to Huawei handsets.
Asked what will happen in November to US companies, Ross said: “Everybody has had plenty of notice of it, there have been plenty of discussions with the president.”
When the Commerce Department blocked Huawei from buying US goods earlier this year, it was seen as a major escalation in the Sino-US trade war.
The US government blacklisted Huawei, alleging the Chinese company is involved in activities contrary to national security or foreign policy interests.

BACKGROUND

The US blacklisted Huawei, alleging the Chinese company was involved in activities contrary to national security or foreign policy interests.

As an example, the blacklisting order cited a pending federal criminal case concerning allegations Huawei violated US sanctions against Iran. Huawei has pleaded not guilty in the case.

The order noted that the indictment also accused Huawei of “deceptive and obstructive acts.”
At the same time the US says Huawei’s smartphones and network equipment could be used by China to spy on Americans, allegations the company has repeatedly denied.
Huawei, the world’s largest telecommunications equipment maker, is still prohibited from buying American parts and components to manufacture new products without additional special licenses.
Many Huawei suppliers have requested the special licenses to sell to the firm. Ross told reporters late last month he had received more than 50 applications, and that he expected to receive more. He said on Monday that there were no “specific licenses being granted for anything.”