Oil rises on expected OPEC cuts, but surging US supply drags

US output has surged by almost a quarter since the start of the year. (Reuters)
Updated 16 November 2018
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Oil rises on expected OPEC cuts, but surging US supply drags

  • Prices were mainly supported by expectations OPEC would start withholding supply soon
  • US output has surged by almost a quarter since the start of the year

SINGAPORE: Oil prices rose on Friday amid expectations of supply cuts from OPEC, although record US production dragged.
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were at $56.84 per barrel at 0353 GMT, up 38 cents, or 0.7 percent, from their last settlement.
Brent crude oil futures were up 48 cents, or 0.7 percent, at $67.10 per barrel.
Prices were mainly supported by expectations the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) would start withholding supply soon, fearing a renewed rout such as in 2014 when prices crashed under the weight of oversupply.
OPEC’s de-facto leader Saudi Arabia wants the cartel and its allies to cut output by about 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd), around 1.5 percent of global supply, sources told Reuters this week.
However, Morgan Stanley warned a cut by the Middle East dominated producer group may not have the desired effect.
“The main oil price benchmarks — Brent and WTI — are both light-sweet crudes and reflect this glut,” the US bank said.
“OPEC production cuts are usually implemented by removing medium and heavier barrels from the market but that does not address the oversupply of light-sweet.”
Due to the structural oversupply that has emerged in the market from record production by many countries, Morgan Stanley said that “OPEC cuts are inherently temporary (because) all they can do is shift production from one period to another.”
While OPEC considers withholding supply, US crude oil production reached another record last week, at 11.7 million bpd, according to US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data published on Thursday.
US output has surged by almost a quarter since the start of the year.
The record output meant US crude oil stocks posted the biggest weekly build in nearly two years.
Crude inventories soared 10.3 million barrels in the week to Nov. 9 to 442.1 million barrels, the highest level since early December 2017.
This surge contributed to oil prices falling by around a quarter since early October, taking many by surprise.
“Oil bulls, us included, have capitulated and we no longer see oil climbing to $95 per barrel next year,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a note.
While sentiment has turned bearish, some analysts warn that 2019 could be tighter than expected.
“We expect 2019 oil demand to reach 101.1 million bpd,” natural resources research and investment firm Goehring & Rozencwajg said, up from just under 100 million bpd this year.
At the same time, the firm said production outside North America was set to disappoint.
Add OPEC’s expected supply cuts, and Goehring & Rozencwajg said “those investors who are able to adopt a contrarian stance ... and stomach the volatility ... are being presented with an excellent investment opportunity” to buy into oil after the recent slump.
Bank of America agreed, saying “we believe oil is oversold and will likely bounce up from the current levels, as OPEC+ dials back production in December.”


Apple China says it will push software update in bid to resolve Qualcomm case

Updated 14 December 2018
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Apple China says it will push software update in bid to resolve Qualcomm case

  • Apple will carry out the software updates at the start of next week to address the concern
  • A court found Apple infringed two patents held by the chipmaker and banned sales of older iPhone models

SHANGHAI/SAN FRANCISCO: Apple Inc. , facing a court ban in China on some of its iPhone models over alleged infringement of Qualcomm Inc. patents, said on Friday it will push software updates to users in a bid to resolve potential issues.
Apple will carry out the software updates at the start of next week “to address any possible concern about our compliance with the order,” the firm said in a statement sent to Reuters.
Earlier this week, Qualcomm said a Chinese court had ordered a ban on sales of some older Apple iPhone models for violating two of its patents, though intellectual property lawyers said the ban would still likely take time to enforce.
“Based on the iPhone models we offer today in China, we believe we are in compliance,” Apple said.
“Early next week we will deliver a software update for iPhone users in China addressing the minor functionality of the two patents at issue in the case.”
The case, brought by Qualcomm, is part of a global patent dispute between the two US companies that includes dozens of lawsuits. It creates uncertainty over Apple’s business in one of its biggest markets at a time when concerns over waning demand for new iPhones are battering its shares.
Qualcomm has said that the Fuzhou Intermediate People’s Court in China found Apple infringed two patents held by the chipmaker and ordered an immediate ban on sales of older iPhone models, from the 6S through the X.
Apple has said that all of its phone models remained on sale in mainland China and that it had filed a request for reconsideration with the court. All the models appeared to be available to buy on Apple’s China website on Friday.
Qualcomm, the biggest supplier of chips for mobile phones, filed its case in China in late 2017, arguing that Apple infringed patents on features related to resizing photographs and managing apps on a touch screen.