Oil recovers some losses after 6% plunge but markets remain wary

The International Energy Agency warned of unprecedented uncertainty in oil markets due to a difficult economic environment and political risk. (Reuters)
Updated 21 November 2018
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Oil recovers some losses after 6% plunge but markets remain wary

  • Investors remained on edge, with the International Energy Agency warning of unprecedented uncertainty in oil markets
  • ‘The global economy is still going through a very difficult time and is very fragile’

SINGAPORE: Oil prices on Wednesday clawed back some of the previous day’s more than 6 percent plunge, lifted by a report of an unexpected decline in US commercial crude inventories as well as record Indian crude imports.
But investors remained on edge, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) warning of unprecedented uncertainty in oil markets due to a difficult economic environment and political risk.
International Brent crude oil futures were at $63.19 per barrel at 0239 GMT, up 66 cents, or 1.1 percent from their last close.
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures, were up 66 cents, or 1.2 percent, at $54.09 a barrel.
Wednesday’s gains came after a report by the American Petroleum Institute late on Tuesday that US commercial crude inventories last week fell unexpectedly by 1.5 million barrels, to 439.2 million, in the week to Nov. 16.
Record crude imports by India of almost 5 million barrels per day (bpd) also supported prices, traders said.
Yet Wednesday’s bounce was small in the context of the general market weakness, which saw crude tumble by more than 6 percent the previous session amid a selloff in global stock markets.
“The global economy is still going through a very difficult time and is very fragile,” IEA chief Fatih Birol said on Tuesday.
“Rising global growth fears smashed oil markets and saw European and US shares slide,” futures brokerage CMC Markets said in a daily note.
With output surging and the demand outlook deteriorating, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is pushing for a supply cut of between 1 million and 1.4 million bpd to prevent a repeat of the 2014 glut.
“We would anticipate further weakness until the reaction from OPEC+ (Dec. 6) and the G20 summit is clearer (Nov. 30/Dec. 1),” said Ashley Kelty, oil analyst at investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald Europe.
Despite an expectation of OPEC-led cuts, Brent and WTI prices have slumped by 28 and 30 percent respectively since early October, and the entire structure of the forward price curve has changed.
The Brent forward curve was in steep backwardation in October, implying a tight market with prices for spot delivery higher than those for later dispatch. This makes it unattractive to store oil.
Since then, however, the curve has moved into contango for most of 2019, implying oversupply as higher prices further out make it attractive to store oil for later sale.
“Investors are becoming increasingly concerned that any potential production cuts by OPEC will be insufficient to cover the surplus in the market,” ANZ bank said on Wednesday.
“The list of reasons for the decline are pretty specific ... too much supply and a risk of slowing demand growth,” said James Mick, Energy Portfolio Manager with US investment firm Tortoise.
“Part of the supply issue has been surging US production,” he added.
US crude oil production has jumped by almost a quarter this year, to a record 11.7 million bpd largely because of a surge in shale output.


UK core pay growth strongest in nearly 11 years, but jobs growth slows

Data showed the unemployment rate remained at 3.8 percent as expected. (Shutterstock)
Updated 16 July 2019
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UK core pay growth strongest in nearly 11 years, but jobs growth slows

  • Core earnings have increased by 3.6 percent annually, beating the median forecast of 3.5 percent
  • The unemployment rate fell by 51,000 to just under 1.3 million

LONDON: British wages, excluding bonuses, rose at their fastest pace in more than a decade in the three months to May, official data showed, but there were some signs that the labor market might be weakening. Core earnings rose by an annual 3.6 percent, beating the median forecast of 3.5 percent in a Reuters poll of economists. Including bonuses, pay growth also picked up to 3.4 percent from 3.2 percent, stronger than the 3.1 percent forecast in the poll. Britain’s labor market has been a silver lining for the economy since the Brexit vote in June 2016, something many economists attribute to employers preferring to hire workers that they can later lay off over making longer-term commitments to investment. The pick-up in pay has been noted by the Bank of England which says it might need to raise interest rates in response, assuming Britain can avoid a no-deal Brexit. Tuesday’s data showed the unemployment rate remained at 3.8 percent as expected, its joint-lowest since the three months to January 1975. The number of people out of work fell by 51,000 to just under 1.3 million. But the growth in employment slowed to 28,000, the weakest increase since the three months to August last year and vacancies fell to their lowest level in more than a year. Some recent surveys of companies have suggested employers are turning more cautious about hiring as Britain approaches its new Brexit deadline of Oct. 31. Both the contenders to be prime minister say they would leave the EU without a transition deal if necessary. A survey published last week showed that companies were more worried about Brexit than at any time since the decision to leave the European Union and they planned to reduce investment and hiring. “The labor market continues to be strong,” ONS statistician Matt Hughes said. “Regular pay is growing at its fastest rate for nearly 11 years in cash terms and its quickest for over three years after taking account of inflation.” The BoE said in May it expected wage growth of 3 percent at the end of this year.