Oil recovers some losses after 6% plunge but markets remain wary

The International Energy Agency warned of unprecedented uncertainty in oil markets due to a difficult economic environment and political risk. (Reuters)
Updated 21 November 2018
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Oil recovers some losses after 6% plunge but markets remain wary

  • Investors remained on edge, with the International Energy Agency warning of unprecedented uncertainty in oil markets
  • ‘The global economy is still going through a very difficult time and is very fragile’

SINGAPORE: Oil prices on Wednesday clawed back some of the previous day’s more than 6 percent plunge, lifted by a report of an unexpected decline in US commercial crude inventories as well as record Indian crude imports.
But investors remained on edge, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) warning of unprecedented uncertainty in oil markets due to a difficult economic environment and political risk.
International Brent crude oil futures were at $63.19 per barrel at 0239 GMT, up 66 cents, or 1.1 percent from their last close.
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures, were up 66 cents, or 1.2 percent, at $54.09 a barrel.
Wednesday’s gains came after a report by the American Petroleum Institute late on Tuesday that US commercial crude inventories last week fell unexpectedly by 1.5 million barrels, to 439.2 million, in the week to Nov. 16.
Record crude imports by India of almost 5 million barrels per day (bpd) also supported prices, traders said.
Yet Wednesday’s bounce was small in the context of the general market weakness, which saw crude tumble by more than 6 percent the previous session amid a selloff in global stock markets.
“The global economy is still going through a very difficult time and is very fragile,” IEA chief Fatih Birol said on Tuesday.
“Rising global growth fears smashed oil markets and saw European and US shares slide,” futures brokerage CMC Markets said in a daily note.
With output surging and the demand outlook deteriorating, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is pushing for a supply cut of between 1 million and 1.4 million bpd to prevent a repeat of the 2014 glut.
“We would anticipate further weakness until the reaction from OPEC+ (Dec. 6) and the G20 summit is clearer (Nov. 30/Dec. 1),” said Ashley Kelty, oil analyst at investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald Europe.
Despite an expectation of OPEC-led cuts, Brent and WTI prices have slumped by 28 and 30 percent respectively since early October, and the entire structure of the forward price curve has changed.
The Brent forward curve was in steep backwardation in October, implying a tight market with prices for spot delivery higher than those for later dispatch. This makes it unattractive to store oil.
Since then, however, the curve has moved into contango for most of 2019, implying oversupply as higher prices further out make it attractive to store oil for later sale.
“Investors are becoming increasingly concerned that any potential production cuts by OPEC will be insufficient to cover the surplus in the market,” ANZ bank said on Wednesday.
“The list of reasons for the decline are pretty specific ... too much supply and a risk of slowing demand growth,” said James Mick, Energy Portfolio Manager with US investment firm Tortoise.
“Part of the supply issue has been surging US production,” he added.
US crude oil production has jumped by almost a quarter this year, to a record 11.7 million bpd largely because of a surge in shale output.


Shareholders of India’s Jet Airways approve debt-for-equity swap

Updated 23 February 2019
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Shareholders of India’s Jet Airways approve debt-for-equity swap

  • The plan will mean the lenders will have a bigger holding than any other shareholder
  • Currently, Chairman Naresh Goyal owns a 51 percent stake in the company and Abu Dhabi’s Etihad Airways owns 24 percent

MUMBAI: India’s Jet Airways said late on Friday that its shareholders approved a plan to convert existing debt to equity, paving the way for the troubled company’s lenders to infuse funds and nominate directors to its board.
Jet’s board last week approved a plan by lenders, led by State Bank of India, for an equity infusion, debt restructuring and the sale or sale-and-lease-back of aircraft.
The plan will mean the lenders will have a bigger holding than any other shareholder.
Currently, Chairman Naresh Goyal owns a 51 percent stake in the company and Abu Dhabi’s Etihad Airways owns 24 percent.
Jet, which had net debt of 72.99 billion rupees ($1.03 billion) as of end-December, has debt payments looming next month, according to rating agency ICRA. It has been unable to pay pilots’ salaries and has outstanding bills to aircraft lessors.
The company, India’s biggest full-service carrier, is struggling with competition from budget rivals, high oil prices and a weaker rupee. The share price took a beating in 2018, losing nearly 70 percent of its value.
In a regulatory filing, Jet said on Friday that 98 percent of its shareholders voted to increase the share capital to 22 billion rupees ($309.8 million) from 2 billion rupees at a special meeting.
Jet, whose financial woes are set against the backdrop of wider aviation industry problems, has been in the red for four straight quarters.