‘No urgency’ for Pakistan to enter IMF program: Finance minister

Pakistani Finance Minister Asad Umar speaks exclusively to Arab News in an interview in Islamabad on Thursday, Dec. 13, 2018. (AN photo)
Updated 14 December 2018
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‘No urgency’ for Pakistan to enter IMF program: Finance minister

  • Reviewing CPEC contracts “not at all” off the table
  • $1 billion received of $6 billion Saudi bailout package

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is in no rush to strike a deal with the International Monetary Fund to deal with its balance-of-payments crisis, Finance Minister Asad Umar has told Arab News. He added that funding from “friendly countries” would help shore up the economy over the remainder of the current financial year.

Pakistani officials have been in talks with the IMF since October, and have formally requested Islamabad’s 13th bailout since the late 1980s to help settle the economy while the new government of Prime Minister Imran Khan, who came to power in July, struggles to implement reforms. 

“I have no urgency right now to get into an IMF program,” Umar told Arab News in a wide-ranging interview on Thursday. “We are in discussions (with the IMF). When we reach the (outlines) of a program which we believe is in the best interests of Pakistan’s economy, we’ll go ahead and sign that.” 

Umar said that pressure to rush a deal with the IMF through had eased, thanks to a combination of bilateral financial support from historical allies and a host of economic measures taken by the government in its first hundred days in power, which he claimed would result in a current account deficit of $6-7 billion less than the previous financial year.

“So I’ve saved $6-7 billion of my financing need and then I’ve arranged funding from bilateral sources to bridge the gap,” Umar said, referring to a $6 billion package agreed on with Saudi Arabia this October and expected aid from China and the UAE. 

Umar refused to provide a figure for packages promised by the latter two countries, but said that, in both cases, it was just a case of “dotting the i’s and crossing the t’s” on the agreements.

Injections from allies will provide a much-needed boost to Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves, which dipped to their lowest in over 4 years — at $7.3 billion — in the week that ended on Dec. 7. 

Any IMF program will likely require Pakistan to commit to strict structural reforms to the economy, and to curbing the government spending that has seen growth soar to nearly 6 percent — at the fastest rate in 13 years — but has also exhausted budgets.

In October, the IMF predicted Pakistan’s growth will slow to four percent in 2019 and about 3 percent in the medium term. This month, the Pakistani rupee dropped to an all-time low of 0.0144 against the dollar. 

Umar denied that the government had allowed the rupee’s value to drop in order to fulfill a precondition of an IMF bailout. He said the main sticking point in negotiations with the organization was the pace of reforms.

“We believe that if you try and make reforms too quickly, if you try and make an adjustment too quickly, you’ll crash the economy,” the minister said. “And that is not in our interests, not even from a debt-sustainability point of view.”

The IMF has also said it wants “absolute transparency” regarding Pakistan’s debts — a demand that will require clarification of certain opaque deals, as well as its debts to China for some $60 billion in financing for energy and infrastructure projects that are part of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative. 

Asked whether reviewing agreements related to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) program was off the table, the finance minister said: “Not at all.”

“If it’s (a question of) transparency, then transparency is available,” he said, stressing that contracts with China had been signed in accordance with “well-established rules.”

Umar also noted that Pakistan had satisfied all concerns raised by the IMF and US officials with regard to CPEC. 

“The IMF had a lot of questions. The Americans had a lot of questions around CPEC,” he said. “We made a presentation, we shared the data with them — first meeting. They never came back after that.”

Umar said new projects slated to be added to the CPEC portfolio included a railway line from the port city of Karachi to the northwestern town of Peshawar, and the establishment of special industrial zones.

“There are a few other projects in the area of the industrial cooperation framework that is being finalized, and which will lay the basis on which future industrial cooperation will take place, private sector-to-private sector,” Umar said. “So, from government-to-government, which is what the first phase of CPEC was, it will be moving to business-to-business.”

Giving details of the Saudi package of $3 billion in foreign currency support for a year and a further loan of up to $3 billion in deferred payments for oil imports, the finance minister said $1 billion of the $6 billion package had been disbursed so far. 

“It’s not a rescue package, it’s a financing package,” he said. “Saudi Arabia will earn a rate of return on that investment.” 

Umar explained that the pending agreements with China and the UAE were also not aid packages: “These are all financial transactions. There are loans, there are trade finance facilities. Pakistan is not taking aid from anyone.”

Referring to a recent World Bank report that said trade between India and Pakistan was far below its potential of $37 billion, the minister said Pakistan was ready to engage in a constructive trade dialogue with its neighbor but “it can’t be a one-sided relationship.”

Trade has long been tied to political conflict between the hostile neighbors who have fought three wars since independence from Britain in 1947. Peaceniks on both sides say progress in trade ties could help bolster a fragile peace process.

But Umar ruled out any discussions on trade with India before general elections there in 2019 and said Pakistan would not take “any kind of unilateral step” when it came to granting India Most Favoured Nation (MFN) trade status, a proposal that past governments have toyed with. 

On the government’s promise of attracting investment from Pakistanis living abroad, the finance minister said rules for a diaspora bond were approved by the Cabinet a week ago and the bond would be issued late December or January. 

“There are equity-related or investment opportunity-related diaspora investments which are being finalized. The board of investment has worked on them; there was a presentation to the prime minister today (Thursday) about some of those,” Umar said. “First the diaspora bonds will be launched and then these initiatives will follow quickly after.”

The minister said despite “doom-and-gloom” scenarios painted by critics, he owed his optimism about Pakistan’s future to the fact that he was a “data-driven person.”

“I’m sure you would have heard (people say), ‘Business is not investing (in Pakistan) anymore,’” Umar said. “But if you look at private sector credit offtake — a useful metric to measure business investment — it was five times more in the first quarter of this year than in the first quarter of last year.

“So where is this business which is not (investing)?” he continued. “I’ve got a whole host of businesses which are coming in, international businesses coming in, all saying we want to invest hundreds of billions in Pakistan.”


US says ‘committed’ to defeating Daesh; allies skeptical

Some of the 20 ministers, including those from the US, France, Britain, and Germany, pose for a photo prior to the 55th Munich Security Conference in southern Germany, on Friday. (AFP)
Updated 21 min 29 sec ago
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US says ‘committed’ to defeating Daesh; allies skeptical

  • Acting US Defense Secretary Shanahan envisions a ‘bigger and stronger’ coalition to fight Daesh globally

MUNICH: Acting US Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan said on Friday that the US is committed to defeating Daesh in the Middle East and beyond, but officials said European allies are skeptical of Washington’s pledges.
US President Donald Trump’s announcement in December that he was withdrawing all 2,000 US troops from Syria surprised and rattled allies. US officials have crisscrossed the Middle East in recent weeks to reassure them that Washington remains committed to the region.
Trump’s Syria decision was opposed by top aides, including Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, who quit, leaving his deputy Shanahan in charge of the Pentagon.
“While the time for US troops on the ground in northeast Syria winds down, the United States remains committed to our coalition’s cause, the permanent defeat of Daesh, both in the Middle East and beyond,” Shanahan said after a meeting on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference.
The meeting included about a dozen defense ministers from the coalition to defeat Daesh. Kurdish-led fighters are battling to capture Daesh’s last major stronghold in Syria, but even without territory, the militant group is widely seen as a continuing threat.
Shanahan said he envisioned a “bigger and stronger” coalition to fight Daesh globally. “We will continue to support our local partners’ ability to stand up to the remnants of Daesh,” he added.
However, European officials said they were given few details during the closed-door meeting in Munich and many questions remain. “We are still trying to understand how the Americans plan to withdraw. I don’t think there is any clarity still,” one European official, speaking on the condition of anonymity said.
Another official said Shanahan did not provide allies with a timeline of the American withdrawal from Syria and allies expressed skepticism during the meeting. A senior US defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said no commitments were made during the meeting and there was little discussion about timelines.
“These meetings don’t tend to have specific deliverables or decisions, it tends to be more focused on taking stock of where we are,” the US official said.
Trump has said he expects a formal announcement as early as this week that the coalition fighting Daesh has reclaimed all the territory held by the group.
Around 20 ministers including those from the US, France, Britain, and Germany will take part in the meeting, according to one source.
US forces are the largest contributors by far to the anti-Daesh coalition and their pullout will leave a vacuum in Syria where major powers are jostling for influence.

Withdrawal issue
“The withdrawal of the American troops from Syria will evidently be at the heart of discussions,” said French Armed Forces Minister Florence Parly before the meeting.
“Once the so-called caliphate no longer has any territory, the international community will have to guarantee that there will be no resurgence of Daesh in Syria or elsewhere,” her ministry’s statement said.
The end of Daesh territory in Syria is heightening worries about experienced militants and foreign fighters escaping and forming new Daesh cells in Syria or beyond.
Once American forces leave, another complication emerges: The future of areas in northern Syria controlled by Kurdish YPG forces, a key US ally in the fight against militants but a militia branded terrorists by Turkey.