Oil on track for weekly gains on trade talk hopes, OPEC-led supply cuts

Oil markets are receiving support from supply cuts led by OPEC, aimed at reining in a glut that emerged in the second half of 2018. (Reuters)
Updated 11 January 2019
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Oil on track for weekly gains on trade talk hopes, OPEC-led supply cuts

  • Markets were held in check by expectations of an economic slowdown in 2019
  • Oil markets are receiving support from supply cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries

SINGAPORE: Oil prices were on track for solid weekly gains on Friday after financial markets were lifted by hopes the United States and China may soon resolve their trade disputes, and as OPEC-led crude output cuts started to tighten supply.
Despite this, markets were held in check by expectations of an economic slowdown in 2019.
International Brent crude futures were at $61.59 per barrel at 0555 GMT, down 9 cents, or 0.15 percent, from their last close.
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were 4 cents below their last settlement, at $52.55 per barrel.
Brent and WTI are set for their second week of gains, rising nearly 8 percent and 10 percent respectively.
Markets were being supported by hopes that the trade war between Washington and Beijing may be resolved soon after officials said three-day talks this week concluded constructively and that further negotiations would likely follow this month.
Lower oil exports from Iran since last November, when US sanctions against it resumed, have also supported crude.
Despite this, concerns over the health of the global economy lingered on, with signs mounting that China’s growth in 2018 and 2019 would be the lowest since 1990.
“If we experience an economic slowdown, crude will underperform due to its correlation to growth,” said Hue Frame, portfolio manager at Frame Funds in Sydney.
Most analysts have downgraded their global economic growth forecasts below 3 percent for 2019, with some even fearing a looming recession amid trade disputes and spiraling debt.
On the supply side, oil markets are receiving support from supply cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) aimed at reining in a glut that emerged in the second half of 2018.
A key reason for the emerging glut was the United States where crude oil production soared by more than 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2018 to a record 11.7 million bpd.
Consultancy JBC Energy this week said it was likely that US crude oil production was already “significantly above 12 million bpd” by January 2019.
Given the overall supply and demand balance, Swiss bank Julius Baer said it was “price neutral” in its oil forecast.
“We see the oil market as well balanced into the foreseeable future, as the petro-nations make space for further US shale production growth,” said Norbert Ruecker, head of commodity research at the bank.


Putin: US move against Huawei aims to weaken China

Updated 40 min 21 sec ago
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Putin: US move against Huawei aims to weaken China

MOSCOW: Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that US moves against technology giant Huawei aimed to weaken China, while US tariffs sought to hold the Chinese economy back.
Putin was speaking at his annual televised question and answer conference.