US economy likely to pick up, though pain may linger for some

US President Donald Trump agreed to reopen the government for three weeks after having forced a shutdown over funding for a wall on the Mexico border. (AP)
Updated 27 January 2019
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US economy likely to pick up, though pain may linger for some

BALTIMORE: The US economy will likely resume its steady growth now that the government has reopened, though economists say some scars — for the nation and for federal workers — will take time to heal.
Most analysts estimate that the 35-day partial shutdown shaved a few tenths of a percentage point from annual economic growth in the first three month of 2019. They say growth should pick up in the coming months, though some of the money federal workers and contractors didn’t spend in the past five weeks — on such items as movie tickets, restaurants and travel — will never be made up. Having gone without two paychecks, many federal workers were forced to visit food banks or to borrow money. Federal workers will now receive backpay, though some contractors might not.
President Donald Trump agreed to reopen the government for three weeks after having forced the shutdown in hopes of compelling Democrats to approve billions for a wall on the Mexico border. Trump failed to secure any such money.
During the shutdown, a shortage of airport security and air traffic controllers disrupted travel at such major hubs as LaGuardia Airport in New York and Newark Liberty International Airport in New Jersey. The pressure on Trump to reopen the government intensified Friday after a delay of about 3,000 flights by mid-afternoon because six of 13 air traffic controllers didn’t show up to work at a critical center in Virginia.
S&P Global Ratings estimates that the economy lost $6 billion because of the government closure — a sizable but relatively negligible sum in a $19 trillion-plus US economy.
“If the shutdown had lasted much longer, the economic impacts would have snowballed — travel problems, tax refunds, etc.,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities.
Still, the damage isn’t likely to lift immediately. And some federal employees had expressed anxiety during the shutdown about the stability and security of their jobs. The most skilled or talented among them may be likelier to leave government service, a potential problem for an economy already facing worker shortages in some areas.
Job searches by employees at multiple federal agencies jumped during the shutdown, according to clicks tracked by the jobs site Indeed. Employees who had gone unpaid at the Department of Homeland Security, Census Bureau, the IRS and the Transportation Safety Administration were much more likely to be hunting for a new job compared with the past two years of searches.
One lingering risk is if Trump chooses to shutter the government again after the three-week agreement lapses on Feb. 15. Should that occur, it would sabotage consumer confidence and hurt the economy, predicted Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.
“It would wipe out confidence,” Zandi said.


US wins WTO ruling against China grain import quotas

Updated 19 April 2019
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US wins WTO ruling against China grain import quotas

GENEVA: The United States won a World Trade Organization (WTO) ruling on Thursday against China’s use of tariff-rate quotas for rice, wheat and corn, which it successfully argued limited market access for US grain exports.
The case, lodged by the Obama administration in late 2016, marked the second US victory in as many months. It came amid US-China trade talks and on the heels of Washington clinching a WTO ruling on China’s price support for grains in March.
A WTO dispute panel ruled on Thursday that under the terms of its 2001 WTO accession, China’s administration of the tariff rate quotas (TRQs) as a whole violated its obligation to administer them on a “transparent, predictable and fair basis.”
TRQs are two-level tariffs, with a limited volume of imports allowed at the lower ‘in-quota’ tariff and subsequent imports charged an “out-of-quota” tariff, which is usually much higher.
The administration of state trading enterprises and non-state enterprises’ portions of TRQs are inconsistent with WTO rules, the panel said.
Australia, Brazil, India, and the European Union were among those reserving their rights in the dispute brought by the world’s largest grain exporter.
In a statement, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue welcomed the decision, saying China’s system “ultimately inhibits TRQs from filling, denying US farmers access to China’s market for grain.”
If China’s TRQs had been fully used, $3.5 billion worth of corn, wheat and rice would have been imported in 2015 alone, it said, citing US Department of Agriculture estimates.
The two WTO rulings would help American farmers “compete on a more level playing field,” the USTR statement said, adding: “The (Trump) Administration will continue to press China to promptly come into compliance with its WTO obligations.”
The latest WTO panel said that the United States had not proven all of its case, failing to show that China had violated its public notice obligation under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) in respect to TRQs.
China’s Ministry of Commerce said in a statement on Friday it “regrets” the panel’s decision and that it would “earnestly evaluate” the panel’s report.
China would “handle the matter appropriately in accordance with WTO dispute resolution procedures, actively safeguard the stability of the multilateral trading system and continue to administer the relevant agricultural import tariff quotas in compliance with WTO rules,” it said.
Either side can appeal the ruling within 60 days.