WEEKLY ENERGY RECAP: Oil prices ignore worsening trade feud

A further tightening in the oil market added to supply concerns and offset the impact of trade tensions between the US and China. (File/Reuters)
Updated 11 May 2019
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WEEKLY ENERGY RECAP: Oil prices ignore worsening trade feud

  • The surge in Chinese crude imports also coincided with tumbling Iranian oil exports

RIYADH: Oil prices were flat on the week despite some volatility. Brent and WTI crude eased to $70.62 and $61.66 per barrel, respectively.
The downward deterioration in crude prices came, counter-intuitively, despite the escalation in the US-China trade war.
Further tightening in the market added to already heightened supply concerns and offset the impact of trade tensions. Still, the broad narrative of continuing trade uncertainty should support prices.
The feud between the world’s two economic superpowers should be seen in the context of rising global demand with China’s (the largest oil importer) crude oil imports reaching a record
10.68 million barrels per days (bpd) in April.
Some saw the spike as a result of Beijing importing more as a hedge against US sanctions exemptions expiring, but that argument doesn’t really stand up to scrutiny because the April crude oil imports were loaded a month ahead in March. Indeed, at this point Beijing was hopeful of an extension of US waivers.
China’s previous crude import record high was 10.48 million bpd in November 2018 and the country’s crude imports were hovering above 10 million bpd for four months until March, when the volume fell to 9.3 million bpd.
The surge of China crude oil imports in April came despite an estimated 1.7 million bpd of refining capacity that was taken offline for the peak maintenance season.
This surge in Chinese crude oil imports also coincided with tumbling Iranian oil exports.
Prices should have been supported further by tighter supply amid continuing production cuts by OPEC and US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. 
OPEC April output was 30.26 million bpd, with Saudi Arabia output at a 15-month low of
9.8 million bpd, and Iranian output lower than during the 2012 sanctions at 2.57 million bpd in April.
Global refinery margins are still supported by strong gasoline demand that will cause additional draw downs in inventories in the coming weeks as driving season approaches. 
This has caused an increase in official selling prices (OSP) for lighter crude oil grades from Saudi Arabia for June cargoes, driven by robust refining margins for light-end products.
The suggestion that Asian refiners are being forced to pay more for Saudi crude as they scramble for replacement barrels to make up for a supply shortfall from Iran may not be accurate.
Saudi Aramco monthly OSP calculations are consistent and consider the refining margin changes. Also the widening Brent/Dubai spread favored Dubai-linked Arabian Gulf crudes over Brent-linked crudes.
Hence the increases in Saudi Aramco June OSP prices for the lighter grades came amid an upswing in gasoline margins.
This refers to the physical price of crude oil loading in the Arabian Gulf through the month of assessment. 
Saudi Aramco’s monthly OSP is based on a sophisticated pricing formula. This considers a number of different factors, including month-to-month changes in refining margins, benchmark market structure movement, related crudes’ competitiveness and a timing mechanism that stipulates when the value of the formula is to be calculated. 
Saudi Aramco sells all of its crude on long-term contractual agreements. This is how it can best fulfill contractual commitments to all of its customers and ensure supply reliability through proper allocation of crude production. 


INTERVIEW: Sam Darwish, Group CEO at IHS Towers - the accidental engineer who found his calling

Updated 25 May 2019
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INTERVIEW: Sam Darwish, Group CEO at IHS Towers - the accidental engineer who found his calling

  • The CEO has made it big in telecoms, in a career shaped early on by Lebanon’s bloody civil war

For some, student survival means merely coasting along at university in the hope of bagging a 2.1, as well as invites to as many parties as possible.

For telecoms executive Sam Darwish, however, survival took on a more literal sense, having embarked on his studies in the dying days of the Lebanese civil war.

Teenage life was tough for Darwish, who is now 47 and a US citizen. Growing up in Beirut in the 1980s meant a constant backdrop of violence —  “there were many wounded,” he said — plus the daily struggles of putting food on the table and regular electricity blackouts.

But it was this experience that taught Darwish a certain “pragmatism” that he continues to put to use today as chief executive of telecoms company IHS Towers, which has to date raised more than $5.5 billion in funding.

Sitting in the IHS office in London’s plush Mayfair district, Darwish recounted how, when he was a student, his father would give him a small sum of money each day. He could either use it to take public transport to the American University of Beirut campus — or buy lunch, and risk the walk through the war-torn streets.

“Decisions like that make you pragmatic. It makes you solution-orientated. It makes you appreciate what the basics in life are,” said Darwish.

“You need just to survive. You need to find a solution. Electricity would disappear for a few days, then people started charging their batteries in their cars, and at the end of the day remove the battery to put on a light or small TV,” he added.

“It taught me to not take anything for granted. You needed to think and rethink every little thing that exists.”

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BIO

SAM DARWISH

•47 years old

•US citizen, grew up in Lebanon

•Married, three children based in US

EDUCATION

•Bachelor’s engineering degree in computer communications, American University of Beirut

CAREER

•Network chief engineer, Libancell, Lebanon

•Vice chairman, director of projects, Lintel

•Deputy managing director, CELIA Motophone, Nigeria

•Co-founder, IHS Towers

OTHER INTERESTS

•Founder, Singularity Investments

•Founder, DAR Properties

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This practical attention to detail — along with an awareness of the importance of finance, power and security — are very much required in Darwish’s role today.

IHS Towers’ business model is relatively straightforward: The company buys mobile towers from telecoms companies, or builds them itself, then leases them back to the operators.

Darwish co-founded the company in Nigeria in 2001, and it now has operations in Cameroon, Cote d’Ivoire, Rwanda and Zambia.

Renting out mobile communications towers is hardly the most glamorous of businesses — it is “simple and low profile, we don’t make it flashy,” he said — but the economics stack up.

Selling mobile towers allows telecoms companies to free up cash, while companies such as IHS can rent space on the masts to multiple carriers, which is more efficient. It is a model that Darwish believes the entire industry will one day embrace.

“When (a single operator) owns a tower, often it’s not optimized in terms of the revenue that that tower can get,” he said.

“They end up with hundreds of millions, sometimes billions of dollars on their balance sheet (with) towers (that are) inefficient, and simply depreciating. Sharing means more efficiency, and more margin for everyone.”

There is also a certain advantage to dealing with purely “basic” infrastructure, given the global furor about the security of telecoms networks.

IHS deals with the actual steel masts, rather than the more sensitive communications kit or software they house.

For that reason, it does not face as much scrutiny as a company such as Huawei, the Chinese equipment firm that the US believes poses a security risk.

“There’s a big difference between us and what Huawei does. We’re providers of passive infrastructure,” said Darwish.

“Our towers are simple towers … It’s a location, it’s a tower, it’s power, it’s security —  that’s what we provide,” he added.

“But at the end of the day, we’re also part of critical infrastructure for countries … So there’s always the aspect of ‘who are these guys, who are their shareholders, what’s their track record, what’s their governance like?’”

That is partly why Darwish runs IHS as if it was a “a public company by Western standards.” The company’s governance is “very strict,” and its high-profile shareholders include Goldman Sachs (through a special fund), the Singapore sovereign wealth fund GIC, the Korea Investment Corp. and IFC, the private equity arm of the World Bank.

At the end of the day, we’re part of a critical infrastructure for countries.

Sam Darwish

Such backing — Darwish said IHS has raised between $5.5 billion and $6 billion of capital since it was formed —  and governance standards bode well for a potential initial public offering (IPO) of IHS.

The company last year shelved such a plan, but Darwish said it is thinking about “moving ahead” with plans for a listing in New York or London.

“There are hundreds of thousands of towers out there that could be bought, or built, over the next few years … That’s why a potential listing is important to us at some point in time,” he said.

Such a move would potentially expedite the company’s expansion in areas such as the Arabian Gulf, which is currently its “main focus.”

IHS has already struck regional agreements to buy towers from telecoms operators Zain Kuwait and Zain KSA.

Upon completion of those two deals — which are still subject to regulatory approval — the Mauritius-headquartered IHS will have approximately 33,100 towers in its portfolio. It is currently the world’s second-largest independent, multi-country tower operator.

Darwish said Saudi Arabia is “where we’d like to grow,” with IHS recently having obtained a foreign investment license from the General Investment Authority, with plans for an office staffed by 100-200 people.

He cited the economic reforms underway, which include weaning Saudi Arabia off its reliance on oil and encouraging more women into the workplace.

“The Kingdom is going through a transformation now. This transformation is fascinating, and it’s something that needs to be watched very carefully,” he said.

“They’re using this cash they have now to start planning, and start transforming — theaters, entertainment, industries, manufacturing, all these massive investments they’re doing.”

Whilst inhabiting an industry that lacks a certain glam factor, there is something of the “Davos man” about Darwish.

Dressed casually in a designer jacket in his Mayfair office, he explained some of his interests that run parallel to IHS.

He is the founder of Singularity Investments, a private investment firm with a focus on technology and media companies in the US and emerging markets, along with DAR Properties, a property investment company.

Darwish also has a strong interest in corporate social responsibility, having supported incubator programs for aspiring tech entrepreneurs in Lagos, served as a mentor to local business executives, and worked on several health and education projects in Africa.

His personal passion, however, is the IHS Academy, launched one and a half years ago, which offers online education in the field and has seen some 40,000 course completions.

“The training for me is the single most important thing I can give, and it helps us at the end of the day,” said Darwish.

“I personally believe in the power of education — that’s what transformed my life. My father worked three shifts to basically make sure we stayed in the best private schools … He believed in what education can do in transforming lives.”

Darwish’s own studies in Beirut, however, nearly took a different turn. Though he graduated as an engineer in computer communications with “the highest distinction” — setting him out on a 20-year career in telecoms — it was never the path he envisaged.

“I wanted to be a Nobel Prize physicist. (But the university) dean called me, and he was like, ‘no — we need you in engineering’,” Darwish said. “It was just by accident that I became an engineer, but it paid off.”